What is the best advice you have been given?

[ultracapper]

Works fine. I'm very comfortable with it. I'm not going to bet a 15-1 if I see a 3-1 that I know will beat it. I don't bet any horse if I can't isolate it, at least in my head, as the most likely winner in the field.

I break the 3-1 rule all the time. Really, I wish I didn't. If I took all the bets I've placed on horses 5-2 or shorter in my life, I know damn well I'm in the red on them. And I'd bet my strike rate on the longer priced horses is every bit as good as it is on the shorter priced horses. For me to land on a horse at 15-1, I have to see something that hits me between the eyes. Because of the way I've been conditioned as a horse bettor from the start, I'm pretty careful about what longer priced horses I play. I'm not going to play a 15-1 just because I like the trainer/jockey or it's last workout or anything as simple as that. It has to be something I saw on the track.

I never bet on a horse because of the odds, I bet on it because I like it. The odds and the reason I landed on it determine how much I'll bet, but the odds alone will never determine whether I'll bet it or not.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Works fine. I'm very comfortable with it. I'm not going to bet a 15-1 if I see a 3-1 that I know will beat it. I don't bet any horse if I can't isolate it, at least in my head, as the most likely winner in the field.

I break the 3-1 rule all the time. Really, I wish I didn't. If I took all the bets I've placed on horses 5-2 or shorter in my life, I know damn well I'm in the red on them. And I'd bet my strike rate on the longer priced horses is every bit as good as it is on the shorter priced horses. For me to land on a horse at 15-1, I have to see something that hits me between the eyes. Because of the way I've been conditioned as a horse bettor from the start, I'm pretty careful about what longer priced horses I play. I'm not going to play a 15-1 just because I like the trainer/jockey or it's last workout or anything as simple as that. It has to be something I saw on the track.

I never bet on a horse because of the odds, I bet on it because I like it. The odds and the reason I landed on it determine how much I'll bet, but the odds alone will never determine whether I'll bet it or not.

I'd be willing to bet you that that's not the case. If your 15-1 selections were winning as often as your 3-1 picks...then you'd be a lot richer than you currently are.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks Ultracapper for the add'l info. I just felt you were passing a lot of opportunities. If you're comfortable, that's more important.

[ultracapper]

I wish I hadn't done this. Ignorance is bliss. But I just reviewed all the bets I've placed this year. I can tell which were 5-1 or shorter from the 6-1 or longer by the way I structure the bet. I just looked at my TVG history since the first of the year.

I've placed 43 bets on horses 5-1 or shorter. 11 winners, 10 places
I've placed 22 bets on horses 6-1 or longer. 4 winners, 4 places.

I'd have to hit 7 of my next 21 bets at 6-1 or higher. That would be a decent run.

[Rookies]

Originally Posted by AFilly4theAges

[/B]
The best advice I ever received from a mentor was,"Every race is NOT playable"!

This is a version of Tom's original post or this equivalent, in relation to ALL Sports Betting:

"The Star Spangled Banner goes off somewhere, every day."

[rubicon55]

"Don't let your mistakes define you, let it refine you"

[pondman]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I wish I hadn't done this. Ignorance is bliss. But I just reviewed all the bets I've placed this year. I can tell which were 5-1 or shorter from the 6-1 or longer by the way I structure the bet. I just looked at my TVG history since the first of the year.

I've placed 43 bets on horses 5-1 or shorter. 11 winners, 10 places
I've placed 22 bets on horses 6-1 or longer. 4 winners, 4 places.

I'd have to hit 7 of my next 21 bets at 6-1 or higher. That would be a decent run.

Why not take those 22 long ones on the nose for $100? Whatever you are doing that's working? That's at least a 1.27 ROI, probably a lot more. Build something with that. Study that.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by pondman

Why not take those 22 long ones on the nose for $100? Whatever you are doing that's working? That's at least a 1.27 ROI, probably a lot more. Build something with that. Study that.

I just did it to see if I was hitting the longer priced horses at the same rate as the shorter priced horses. I thought I'd hit a few more longer priced horses than that this year. My ROI on all bets this year is 1.16, not exactly what I'm looking for, but better than last year's 1.10. So, moving forward anyhow.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Be prepared to lose what you can only afford to lose and no more.