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09-30-2023, 01:46 PM
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#1
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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The Arc
1m1/2 from Longchamp - post time 10:05am Eastern tomorrow (Oct 1).
Going to take a shot on #4 Simca Mille who seems way overlaid with a 20-1 ML. I wonder if that number will hold as I'm expecting more like 12-1.
Classy and consistent, loves the distance, loves the course, shows up every time (except for the trip to Japan), hopefully he will be right there at the end.
Will use top & bottom with the main contenders (Hukum, Westover, Continuous, and the unbeaten Ace Impact).
Good luck
One of the top races in the world - who ya' got?
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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09-30-2023, 05:10 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,734
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Some key stats I found for the Arc
L23 winners: 17 won last out, and 14 had run at Longchamp.
19 of the L25 editions have been won by posts of 1-8. 15 of L21 were between 1-6. The best posts overall are #2 and #6, each with 6 wins since 1980.
Fillies have won 8 of the L12 editions.
France-based horses have won 68 out of the L101 editions. Won also 2 of L4.
Horses who have tried the Arc once have won 4 times in L9.
Other positives are:
Horses trained by Andre Fabre (8 Arc wins)
Horses ridden by Frankie Dettori (6 Arc wins)
Horses owned by Juddmonte (6 wins)
Being either 3 or 4 years old
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'  
-Conley
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09-30-2023, 05:27 PM
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#3
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,734
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In that case
#1 Y Y (2)
#2 Y Y Y Y (4)
#3 Y Y Y Y (4)
#4 Y Y Y Y (4)
#5 Y Y Y (3)
#6 Y Y Y Y Y (5)
#7 Y Y (2)
#8 Y Y Y Y Y Y (6)
#9 NO HITS
#10 Y (1)
#11 Y (1)
#12 Y Y (2)
#13 Y Y (2)
#14 Y Y Y (3)
#15 Y Y (2)
TOP PICKS
#8 PLACE DU CARROUSEL 20-1
#6 WESTOVER 6-1
Tied 4pts #2 99-1 #3 30-1 #4 20-1
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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10-01-2023, 09:36 AM
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#4
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
1m1/2 from Longchamp - post time 10:05am Eastern tomorrow (Oct 1).
Going to take a shot on #4 Simca Mille who seems way overlaid with a 20-1 ML. I wonder if that number will hold as I'm expecting more like 12-1.
Classy and consistent, loves the distance, loves the course, shows up every time (except for the trip to Japan), hopefully he will be right there at the end.
Will use top & bottom with the main contenders (Hukum, Westover, Continuous, and the unbeaten Ace Impact).
Good luck
One of the top races in the world - who ya' got?
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Going to add the huge longshot #1 Sisfahan to the ticket
QU: 4 w 1-6-7-13-15
WIN: 4
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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10-01-2023, 09:58 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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Going to simplify my play and just start with betting the  &  to win.
Q: 6,7/3,7,13,14,15
GL everyone... pretty sure it was pouring rain last year... lets go!
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10-01-2023, 09:58 AM
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#6
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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8-5 odds are way too low on #13, causing overlays virtually everywhere else on the board, esp on #15 who dominated in his last start
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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10-01-2023, 10:15 AM
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#7
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
8-5 odds are way too low on #13, causing overlays virtually everywhere else on the board, esp on #15 who dominated in his last start
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Maybe not !
Still undefeated and now 6-6 after a dominating win.
Very impressive colt
Ace Impact
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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10-01-2023, 10:30 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Maybe not !
Still undefeated and now 6-6 after a dominating win.
Very impressive colt
Ace Impact
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That wasn't even close... big win. I still think your previous overlay comment is likely correct. 9/5 ? I dunno though.... that was a beating.
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10-01-2023, 11:40 AM
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#9
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
TOP PICKS
#8 PLACE DU CARROUSEL 20-1
#6 WESTOVER 6-1
Tied 4pts #2 99-1 #3 30-1 #4 20-1
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#8 12th Looked good till the 3/4 and then flattened sadly
#6 2nd Almost took this race, but Ace Impact flew home in the final 1/2 furlong
#2 14th #3 3rd #4 10th
At least the weather held. Last year was heavy conditions but firm course today. Congrats to all involved with Ace Impact! Awesome ride and remains unbeaten!
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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