Capitulation Angle: Don't play 1 2, 1 3, but play 2 3

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

I keep getting burned by handicapping my top 2 picks when playing them in Exacta, TRI wheel, or splitting them in TRI with ALL in the middle. Wouldn't you know they'd run 2nd 3rd with some 'under the radar' beating me. So this week I started betting against myself with interesting results...

ALL / 1st 2nd / 1st 2nd

I am showing a profit. Just popped again last race at GP today in a chalky card with a 15-1 shot coming home. If favorites win 30% of the time, maybe this 'I give up' angle could pay off. A win is a win right? I wonder what data crunching shows?

I'll keep grinding and chime in as things develop.

[shouldacoulda]

Are you a speed handicapper? I was finding the same thing when I speed capped and stopped doing it that way (handicapping). James Quinn said that people who handicap for the highest speed ratings usually are on horses that have already peaked in their form cycle.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by shouldacoulda

Are you a speed handicapper? I was finding the same thing when I speed capped and stopped doing it that way (handicapping). James Quinn said that people who handicap for the highest speed ratings usually are on horses that have already peaked in their form cycle.

I certainly pace handicap. I use the many standard angles, stats, horse to watch stable alerts, etc. to get a couple rock solid selections. But it seems so many times some freak porks me Don't get me wrong my picks come in, but I look at big payouts when my top two plays run second and third. Maybe a strange 'cover' angle when things are not clicking.

[Poweshow]

Off topic, but how do you guys do your pace handicapping? I have an excel spread sheet that I use to enter numbers and store a database of handicapped races and winners.

How do you guys work your systems?