HANDICAPPING IS RANDOM - Page 13 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

BettinBilly · 07-08-2015, 06:23 PM

RE: The OP's Post;

I personally come down on the side of Handicapping.

Stating this, I do have a trackbuddy that never looks at a race program or DRF or any other source, he just visits the paddock and visually handicaps. His results are better than mine with all my diving into PP's. Not sure that's a good benchmark, but it's a fact. I typically don't visually handicap that much. Perhaps I should start.

I have sometimes wondered what would happen if I spent an entire year just picking horses at random VS handicapping. I can't bring myself to try this out, and I'd never last more than a few races picking at random without jumping back on the handicapping bandwagon. Regardless, I don't know how you'd get a controlled sample by such a comparison.

Capper Al · 07-08-2015, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

RE: The OP's Post;

I personally come down on the side of Handicapping.

Stating this, I do have a trackbuddy that never looks at a race program or DRF or any other source, he just visits the paddock and visually handicaps. His results are better than mine with all my diving into PP's. Not sure that's a good benchmark, but it's a fact. I typically don't visually handicap that much. Perhaps I should start.

I have sometimes wondered what would happen if I spent an entire year just picking horses at random VS handicapping. I can't bring myself to try this out, and I'd never last more than a few races picking at random without jumping back on the handicapping bandwagon. Regardless, I don't know how you'd get a controlled sample by such a comparison.

Go back through your old past performances and literally pick the horse #3, or whatever number you like, and see how you do. My guess is your ROI would be .70 or lower.

BettinBilly · 07-08-2015, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Go back through your old past performances and literally pick the horse #3, or whatever number you like, and see how you do. My guess is your ROI would be .70 or lower.

Good point, Al. And you are probably on target for the ROI.

ReplayRandall · 07-08-2015, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Go back through your old past performances and literally pick the horse #3, or whatever number you like, and see how you do. My guess is your ROI would be .70 or lower.

In actuality, your ROI would be whatever the track takeout was, if you were truly picking at random. To be .70 or lower, you would almost be trying to lose rather than win.........reminds of the contest we played here at PA last year where you picked a ML favorite to lose....

Capper Al · 07-09-2015, 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

In actuality, your ROI would be whatever the track takeout was, if you were truly picking at random. To be .70 or lower, you would almost be trying to lose rather than win.........reminds of the contest we played here at PA last year where you picked a ML favorite to lose....

Not so. The public cuts the takeout in half. This will serve as a second takeout for the public forcing random picks to lose more.

AndyC · 07-09-2015, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Not so. The public cuts the takeout in half. This will serve as a second takeout for the public forcing random picks to lose more.

I am not following you. How does the public cut the takeout in half?

raybo · 07-09-2015, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyC

I am not following you. How does the public cut the takeout in half?

I think what he might be saying is that the public hits about the amount of the takeout (0.85 or so) and someone betting randomly would do much worse than the takeout (0.70 or so), but I have no data suggesting the latter. His example of random betting was to bet the same horse number every race (his example was betting the #3 horse in every race), but that is not truly random betting (since you're not picking a random number, rather you are betting the #3 horse every race and that correlates closely with the post position which is already accounted for in the public odds), random betting would be betting a "randomized" horse number (any number between 1 and the field size) each race. Anytime you are betting the same thing every race (saddle cloth number, post position number, gray horses, birthday, favorite number, etc., you are not really betting randomly, IMO.

The #3 horse in every race, depending on the sample size and the tracks, etc., could produce huge profits over an extended period of time, just as easily as producing a 0.70 ROI over the same time period, it just depends on how many times the #3 horse wins and what the average price is, in that specific sample of races. One or two huge payouts could make one profitable over a year for example, at tracks that have higher than average win payouts.

ReplayRandall · 07-09-2015, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Not so. The public cuts the takeout in half. This will serve as a second takeout for the public forcing random picks to lose more.

Sorry Al, but whatever pathway you've chosen to venture on, you've lost your analytical compass and have wandered to who-knows-where, theoretically.....

PIC6SIX · 02-26-2019, 06:48 PM

I started the thread and PA members offered numerous replies as to why the game does have logical results based (somewhat overall) that horses run and finish according to their odds (GENERALLY !!!!) I agree with all that, however as my moniker indicates I love to bet the P-6 on large carryover days. This means I have to bet many junk (no need to explain my use of the word junk) races in the sequence. Races with not much if any logic in handicapping terms applies. Such races where to me the winner was a RANDOM WINNER.

Gakiss2 · 02-26-2019, 10:05 PM

Looking for the silver lining. A race that is junk to you is typically junk to the public and therefor a good opportunity to catch a high odds horse in a horizontal bet. Of course that means either hitting all for the race and taking a small loan to buy the ticket or pick a few extra randoms in that kind of race and hope luck is on your side.

I know we fret a lot about what we can figure out on race we will bet (me included) but if you get to the point that you think you have calculated luck out of it, You are delusional. IMHO.

jasperson · 02-27-2019, 04:34 PM

Good to see you back AL

stuball · 03-01-2019, 10:21 AM

I used to go to a dog track when we had dog racing in Wisconsin. I saw these people at a table rolling dice and placing bets... every so often the table would explode with high fives all around... I often wonder if the were cheering a big tri or a $6.00 winner. and I wonder where those people are today? Does anyone else have a similar story...?

Stuball

The Artful Dodger · 03-01-2019, 06:14 PM

Handicapping is like the story of the two guys walking in the woods. They turn a corner and suddenly come upon a bear about 50 yards ahead of them. The bear begins to walk towards them. The one guy bends over and begins to tightly lace up his shoes. The other one says, "Hey, come on. Let's get out of here. We gotta outrun that bear!". The other guy says, "Nope. I just gotta outrun you".

The schools of handicapping allow you to sometimes gain an edge over the betting public. But that isn't enough. If you're selection oriented, always betting your top pick, you'll most likely lose in the long run.

You need to be value oriented. Make your own betting line and then bet either your lowest odds overlay or your biggest overlay. You will have good days and bad days but in the long run you should finish ahead.

In horse racing, the finish position is sometimes random due to racing luck (good and bad). That's why I play the trifecta. I choose to embrace serendipity and allow it to work for me rather than bitching about it later whist tearing up my ticket.

citygoat · 03-04-2019, 08:23 AM

“Don't seek to have events happen as you wish, but wish them to happen as they do happen, and all will be well with you.”

AskinHaskin · 03-08-2019, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

In actuality, your ROI would be whatever the track takeout was, if you were truly picking at random.

Well that enlightens the masses as to the general cluelessness in these hallowed halls.

Talk about inaccurate thinking.

Sure, if the results were (truly) random, that would be the case, but as horse race results are anything but random, the above quoted statement is baseless.

You need look no more than beyond the percentage of winning favorites to immediately see that race results are not 'random'.

"Random" is lottery number drawings.

The fastest horses win the most races. The fastest ping-pong balls know no greater success than the others.