What is the deal with the late bets?

[GMB@BP]

Battle of the juicers here in the 8th, Navarro versus Servis.

[GMB@BP]

How about that, Navarro horse misses the break and Servis gets beat.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Here is what has changed...IMO:

In years past, the vast majority of us players lost...but there were only a few races a day available to us for wagering purposes...and we could manage our money in a way which kept our losses under control. But then, full-card simulcasting was sprung among us without any warning of its harmful side-effects...and we jumped at this new wagering formal as if we were kids in a candy store. We started making a week's worth of bets in a single day, and our losses quickly got out of control. And most of us have yet to recover...IMO.

In the old days, many of us deceived ourselves into actually believing that we would be able to make a lot of money in this game...if only we had enough wagering opportunities available to us to make the endeavor worthwhile, from a "time and effort" point of view. Well...it turned out that we were dead wrong. If you are a WINNING player, then more wagering opportunities are a blessing. But to the LOSING player...an increase in the number of wagering opportunities only means a quicker path to the poorhouse. As the old saying goes..."be careful what you wish for..."

You seem to be scoring with big ideas these days.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

You seem to be scoring with big ideas these days.

Yeah...I don't know what's come over me.

[jimmyb]

I played the #5 in Saratogas 5th race today. 14-1 going into the gate, 9-1 when the gate opened. Won going away.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

I played the #5 in Saratogas 5th race today. 14-1 going into the gate, 9-1 when the gate opened. Won going away.

Anyone have the last 20 minutes of tote board on this?

Thanks in advance. May go there next week and hope to report back on my tote board WINNERS.

[toddbowker]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

Betting handle is up over 5% comparing early 2018 vs early 2017. So somebody is liking the new world order with the late odds changes. Given these figures I cannot see any changes to the rules anytime soon

My guess is that the 5% lift in handle is due to gifting even bigger rebates to the big syndicates, which will just strengthen the trend with big late odds drops

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...purses-improve

It's actually more to do with the tax law changes. Less money being pulled out of circulation by IRS withholding is leading to an increase in churn. At PTC we are down over 98% in the number of tickets requiring withholding under the new rules as opposed to what we had under the old ones. It's really shocking how difficult it is to generate a ticket subject to withholding in the ADW space because all of your bets in a track/race/pool are aggregated before doing the math.

[Valuist]

Most people don't really understand late odds changes. A horse goes from 30/1 to 20/1 and they think its significant. Its a drop of only 2 pari-mutuel points; pretty insignificant.

The 2nd at Del Mar was a giant late odds swing. Saddle Bar was 5/2 when the gates opened and the late batch money pulled the horse all the way down to even money. 5/2 is worth 28 points; even money is worth 50. A 22 point change would be like a 30/1 shot falling all the way to 3/1.

Needless to say, Saddle Bar won fairly easily.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Most people don't really understand late odds changes. A horse goes from 30/1 to 20/1 and they think its significant. Its a drop of only 2 pari-mutuel points; pretty insignificant.

The 2nd at Del Mar was a giant late odds swing. Saddle Bar was 5/2 when the gates opened and the late batch money pulled the horse all the way down to even money. 5/2 is worth 28 points; even money is worth 50. A 22 point change would be like a 30/1 shot falling all the way to 3/1.

Needless to say, Saddle Bar won fairly easily.

30/1 to 20/1= -32%
5/2 to 1/1= -43%
30/1 to 3/1= -87%

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Most people don't really understand late odds changes. A horse goes from 30/1 to 20/1 and they think its significant. Its a drop of only 2 pari-mutuel points; pretty insignificant.

The 2nd at Del Mar was a giant late odds swing. Saddle Bar was 5/2 when the gates opened and the late batch money pulled the horse all the way down to even money. 5/2 is worth 28 points; even money is worth 50. A 22 point change would be like a 30/1 shot falling all the way to 3/1.

Needless to say, Saddle Bar won fairly easily.

Other horses' odds rose accordingly, right?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

30/1 to 20/1= -32%
5/2 to 1/1= -43%
30/1 to 3/1= -87%

He's talking odds percentages.
Different than regular percentages.

[porchy44]

As I tell people who complain about their horse dropping in odds during the race. "You better hope your horse comes down in odds during the race".

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by porchy44

As I tell people who complain about their horse dropping in odds during the race. "You better hope your horse comes down in odds during the race".

They have good reason to complain. The end result is a higher takeout in the win pool.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by porchy44

As I tell people who complain about their horse dropping in odds during the race. "You better hope your horse comes down in odds during the race".

This seems to be very true. Even when some 18/1 horse wins a race...it was bet DOWN from 25/1. it didn't go UP from 14/1.

It kind of feels like treading in water while being shot at from up above. You're just dead.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's called late money.

BTW, I just finished posting 500 win bets on the VIP forum over the last 11 days or so. I had a positive 12% ROI at the end of the 500 run.

My whole goal during this "exhibition" was to hunt for longshots. As it turned out, my average win mutuel was over $20. Of course, my strike rate was only 11%

My point? I hit 55 winners over 500 races. NOT ONCE, do I recall ever thinking or seeing that one of my winners was bet down either right after, during or after the race. NOT ONCE.

If, as you are implying, there is PAST POSTING going on, why don't they ever seem to past post longshots? Are they not as worthy of past posting as some 9-1 shot that gets cut to 9/2 (which I personally posted about on here not too long ago)?

The simple answer to your question is that there are groups of well financed individuals employing methods that do DUMP a tremendous amount of money into the pools at the last second. And they are good ENOUGH at picking winners that YOU notice this. I know you don't believe any single person or any group could possibly be this good, but you may have to adjust some of your core beliefs because I can assure you, yes, they can be that good.

When I was home for a few days last week, I fired up the NYRA channel on my computer to the feed that shows the pools and the race video in split screen.
For purposes of observation, I watched the pools after the races went.
I saw no significant amounts of money posting to the pools after the start as well as into the opening panels.
That's not to imply other tracks don't show significant jumps in pool totals posted to the pools after "off time"..It didn't seem to be significant with NYRA.