can we bury the phony small sample Derby "statistics" now?

[dilanesp]

Thank you.

[Rex Phinney]

He was 5/2 and sixth straight favorite.

All this does it give reason for every dirt trainer to not race their horses and send them to the front all the time every time.

In other words it changes nothing.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

He was 5/2 and sixth straight favorite.

All this does it give reason for every dirt trainer to not race their horses and send them to the front all the time every time.

In other words it changes nothing.

I remember when favorites couldn't win the Derby (1980-1998) too.

You may not like the incentives this creates. I don't necessarily like them either.

But as a handicapping factor? Just handicap the race. Forget about the small sample "stats".

[Hanger]

Do we see less Pedigree'd 2 year olds in the Breeders Cup now? Lots of conversations considering ruining another myth here.

[depalma113]

What happened to the closers?

[clocker7]

Originally Posted by depalma113

What happened to the closers?

We've bred a generation of horses with tactical speed and just enough bottom to persevere at 10f.

It's not like there have been a lot of surprises lately.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by depalma113

What happened to the closers?

Horses don’t go forward any more. Only backward.

[GMB@BP]

Storm Cat line...dead now

Apollo...dead now

socal dirt horses are slow...probably dead, until LoneF shows up

[porchy44]

theory of black swan events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

[zico20]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I remember when favorites couldn't win the Derby (1980-1998) too.

You may not like the incentives this creates. I don't necessarily like them either.

But as a handicapping factor? Just handicap the race. Forget about the small sample "stats".

You can keep the UAE factor sample. That one will be going on for the next hundred years as long as they keep bringing them over the week of the race. I toss any horse from the UAE without even looking at the PPs. It is much easier to handicap 19 than 20.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by zico20

You can keep the UAE factor sample. That one will be going on for the next hundred years as long as they keep bringing them over the week of the race. I toss any horse from the UAE without even looking at the PPs. It is much easier to handicap 19 than 20.

Yep.

This was "the" horse to break that curse. Regal breeding that sold for a $3 million tag that had two G1 wins. He broke the UAE track record by a second and a half, and blasted that field by 18+ lengths.

He finished DFL today after getting bumped at the start and eventually being eased.

Until they learn their lesson and bring their horse over here and have them run in at least 1 U.S. prep race, there is absolutely no reason to believe these horses won't continue finishing well up the track.

Back to back completely horrific performances by Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn highlight the horrific Euro record in this race.

[f2tornado]

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.

and they were all pretty much bet...was it the breeding or the talent?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by clocker7

We've bred a generation of horses with tactical speed and just enough bottom to persevere at 10f.

It's not like there have been a lot of surprises lately.

Excellent point

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.

How about the winner?