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Old 03-27-2018, 05:24 PM   #571
storyline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle View Post
This is the last snap I have. I believe it's close.

HTML Code:
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Thanks Jerry, that certainly gives clarity to what I believed to be correct.

I was inpart working off a my own false assumption and to those I offended here I apologize.

The first Saturday in May should give us a better picture of Runaway Ghost's classiness.
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Old 03-27-2018, 07:00 PM   #572
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We have issues in this game but I don't know this horse (winning at 7-2) is one of them. On my scale graded stakes horses will generally be rated at 100 or so, that's how my scale is set. This horse had a 99 I believe, you can check the link in my sig. 29.9% of all races will be won by the top ranked horse and that's not a backfit, that's forward tested for thousands of races. So on that day Runaway Ghost was rated to be a legit grade three horse at least as far as the computer is concerned and that is rating horse vs horse and margins, not times. Everyone else seems like they were rated well below that, they probably just aren't legit graded stakes horses. 3yos develop so much on these 'programs' it's pointless to read too much into class this early anyway. I think the KDerby winner last year came in with a 94 or something, a legit grade one stakes horse doesn't always take down the Derby. Pretty evident last years winner was grade three (or worse) unless you believe all of the medical excuses they made after the losses started to pile up.
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Old 03-27-2018, 08:48 PM   #573
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I can easily make a case where this horse should have been around 2-1, so I can easily see why they knocked his price down like they did, and it has zero to do with any speculation about something other than hay and water.

I agree.

He was 2nd best on my figures and I had a reason to dislike the highest rated horse. In fact, when I saw what he paid that night, I was kind of pissed off I had other things to do and hadn't played. I would have definitely put in a bet at 7-1. Even at 7/2 I would have considered a bet.
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Old 03-27-2018, 10:02 PM   #574
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Steve, sorry if I offended you, it wasn't my intent.
you did not offend me, and i did not think you tried to.

no apologies needed.
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Old 03-27-2018, 10:14 PM   #575
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The sported the highest figure with multiple respected speed-figure providers...and many members here have made the case that this horse deserved to be a top contender in the race. And yet...no one here ever stated they they were willing to place even a token pre-race wager on the horse...even though he went in the gate at odds of 7-1. All I saw were a couple of guys who said that the horse deserved to be "used" somewhere in the wager. Even PA-Mike, whose handicapping software had the horse listed as a 2.2-1 betting choice, chose the when he made a selection for the race.

How does a 7-1 "top contender" get so much wagering disrespect by our distinguished group of handicappers here?
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Old 03-27-2018, 10:55 PM   #576
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Personal opinion based on str's thread at SBR but I feel you have to still allow for some run style fluidity 3 months into a 3yo season.
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Old 03-27-2018, 11:22 PM   #577
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I just play for fun (small dollars), but used the in an EX box. Those were my contenders, and I felt that the race had value. I hated that they didn't have .50 cent tri's or .10 supers, because I would have used the down below. Or maybe I don't hate it, because I would have lost those bets too.

The bigger question for me, besides the getting crushed late, is where did that come from?
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Old 03-28-2018, 12:14 AM   #578
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
The sported the highest figure with multiple respected speed-figure providers...and many members here have made the case that this horse deserved to be a top contender in the race. And yet...no one here ever stated they they were willing to place even a token pre-race wager on the horse...even though he went in the gate at odds of 7-1. All I saw were a couple of guys who said that the horse deserved to be "used" somewhere in the wager. Even PA-Mike, whose handicapping software had the horse listed as a 2.2-1 betting choice, chose the when he made a selection for the race.

How does a 7-1 "top contender" get so much wagering disrespect by our distinguished group of handicappers here?
I said one of the models I use, which I didn't use on that race.

I suck now. So don't listen to anything I say.
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Old 03-28-2018, 08:23 AM   #579
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I agree.

He was 2nd best on my figures and I had a reason to dislike the highest rated horse. In fact, when I saw what he paid that night, I was kind of pissed off I had other things to do and hadn't played. I would have definitely put in a bet at 7-1. Even at 7/2 I would have considered a bet.
Given the trip he had didn't he look more like a 1-2 shot after the fact?
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Old 03-28-2018, 11:09 AM   #580
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As stated earlier not a new occurrence.

This thread reminds me of something my father (old railbird) told me one day at the track more than 30 years ago. I was whining to him one day about a winning horse that I bet, the odds coming down during the running of the race.

In a sarcastic tone he told me "you better hope his odds comes down". At the time I had no idea what he was getting at and did not question him about it. I only bring this up because this occurred more than 30 years ago. Now I understand what his sarcasm meant.
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Old 03-28-2018, 11:40 AM   #581
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Given the trip he had didn't he look more like a 1-2 shot after the fact?
Maybe 3/5

Rating the way he did gave him the perfect setup.

It was one of those things for me. I took a quick look at the race in the morning, looked at my ratings and notes, saw there was plenty of speed in the race, and nothing stuck me strongly enough to ensure I was home to play later in the day. He was among my major contenders though. So the fact that he got bet was not shocking to me.

If you told me he was definitely going to rate I'm pretty sure I would have been home.
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Old 03-28-2018, 12:43 PM   #582
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Given the trip he had didn't he look more like a 1-2 shot after the fact?
What does a 1-2 look like? I have seen them easily win, struggle to get their nose there, or come in last (to the delight of the anti-bridgejumpers).

I would be curious of the average winning odds of horses that won by 10 lengths during the last ?? few months, year, ... ??
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Old 03-28-2018, 01:12 PM   #583
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What does a 1-2 look like? I have seen them easily win, struggle to get their nose there, or come in last (to the delight of the anti-bridgejumpers).

I would be curious of the average winning odds of horses that won by 10 lengths during the last ?? few months, year, ... ??
Average PT odds: 5-1

Average Final odds: 3-2
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Old 03-31-2018, 09:24 PM   #584
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Reride who easily beat Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost 34 days ago gets dusted today by 20 lengths finishing 3rd in Meydan, nobody ever saw that coming.
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Old 04-01-2018, 12:10 AM   #585
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Reride who easily beat Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost 34 days ago gets dusted today by 20 lengths finishing 3rd in Meydan, nobody ever saw that coming.
That is the problem with comparative handicapping. Clearly we didn't see the same Runaway Ghost last weekend but a much improved version. Reride beating the old version meant nothing today.
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