Why do some tracks have more longshots than other tracks?

[Zippy Chippy]

I don't understand why certain tracks have more longshots than others. Why wouldn't it be the same at all tracks?

I sit here and watch Tampa, and Parx and i feel that the 30-1 shots have the same chance as the even money shots (slight exaggeration) but when you get to the tracks like Aqueduct, SA, I feel like the favorites will run true to form.

Is it the track, or the horses, or what? 49-1 shot just got nipped at the wire at Tampa. I feel like it will be weeks before a 49-1 shot would have a chance to win at AQU or other tracks, but its a daily basis at Tampa..

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Zippy Chippy

I don't understand why certain tracks have more longshots than others. Why wouldn't it be the same at all tracks?

I sit here and watch Tampa, and Parx and i feel that the 30-1 shots have the same chance as the even money shots (slight exaggeration) but when you get to the tracks like Aqueduct, SA, I feel like the favorites will run true to form.

Is it the track, or the horses, or what? 49-1 shot just got nipped at the wire at Tampa. I feel like it will be weeks before a 49-1 shot would have a chance to win at AQU or other tracks, but its a daily basis at Tampa..

IMO it has to do with cheaper horses and bigger fields.

[Stillriledup]

I think the better tracks have more favorites because less can go wrong. If you are an even money shot at a NYRA track for example, you're probably ridden by an elite rider, trained by an elite trainer and you're probably a horse who has some serious talent.

If you're at a smaller track, you're probably a cheap claimer ridden by a bad jock that has very 'spotty' form on paper.

And, if you are at the smaller track, you probably don't have the biggest and smartest bettors in the world betting on that race.

[andicap]

I would question the validity of the premise that better tracks have more favorites. I just did a quick take in my DB and found in the last year for all horses that ran at 0.1 to 2-1 odds.

Kee had 38% winners
Delta had 37%
MNR had 39%

Further research is needed, sure, but I wouldn't reflexively conclude higher class tracks have more chalk.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by andicap

I would question the validity of the premise that better tracks have more favorites. I just did a quick take in my DB and found in the last year for all horses that ran at 0.1 to 2-1 odds.

Kee had 38% winners
Delta had 37%
MNR had 39%

Further research is needed, sure, but I wouldn't reflexively conclude higher class tracks have more chalk.

i agree

[toussaud]

the longshot fairy imho

[Robert Goren]

It is matter of the time of when you look at them. All tracks go through periods when favorites win and other times when the long shot prevail. Tampa was pretty chalky in January, but lately has had quite a few prices. Most of them were pretty hard to come up with.

[Stillriledup]

Here's the key to all of this 'favorites' talk.

The very best 1 percent of all thoroughbreds win more races than they lose. Those thoroughbreds race at A list tracks. So, by definition, top tier tracks are automatically going to have a small percentage of races won by 'sure winners'.

Maybe the key is to eliminate all horses that pay under 4 dollars and see what the percentage of favorites that pay at least even money is, maybe you'll see there is no real difference.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Zippy Chippy

I don't understand why certain tracks have more longshots than others. Why wouldn't it be the same at all tracks?

I sit here and watch Tampa, and Parx and i feel that the 30-1 shots have the same chance as the even money shots (slight exaggeration) but when you get to the tracks like Aqueduct, SA, I feel like the favorites will run true to form.

Is it the track, or the horses, or what? 49-1 shot just got nipped at the wire at Tampa. I feel like it will be weeks before a 49-1 shot would have a chance to win at AQU or other tracks, but its a daily basis at Tampa..

Drugs! Also, having Dutrow, Baffert, Mullins, etc, gracing the backside ensures no live runner will be overlooked.

[Tuffmug]

Some tracks have more form darkening trainers than others. Many longshots are horses whose true quality has been carefully hidden (via running at inapprop. dist.,class, or surface) in hopes of making a big betting score for the trainer and connections.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Tuffmug

Some tracks have more form darkening trainers than others. Many longshots are horses whose true quality has been carefully hidden (via running at inapprop. dist.,class, or surface) in hopes of making a big betting score for the trainer and connections.

No offense but I doubt this is the norm

[Tuffmug]

Originally Posted by Valento

No offense but I doubt this is the norm

None taken. I'm happy that most bettors don't believe this occurs.