Quirin speed points and which horse gets the lead

[cutchemist42]

Just thought I'd post here about the use of quirin speed points and using them to truly figure out which horse gets the lead, and whether they last a speed duel. Do you combine it with pace figures? Do you consider class more or maybe an emphasis on post position. Is there a way to put a probability number to it to assess the chances the horse horse is at the lead?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

Just thought I'd post here about the use of quirin speed points and using them to truly figure out which horse gets the lead, and whether they last a speed duel. Do you combine it with pace figures? Do you consider class more or maybe an emphasis on post position. Is there a way to put a probability number to it to assess the chances the horse horse is at the lead?

In this article I am talking about quirin speed points and their use...

http://www.themindofagambler.com/201...f_early_speed/

[pandy]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

Just thought I'd post here about the use of quirin speed points and using them to truly figure out which horse gets the lead, and whether they last a speed duel. Do you combine it with pace figures? Do you consider class more or maybe an emphasis on post position. Is there a way to put a probability number to it to assess the chances the horse horse is at the lead?

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/esr.htm

[raybo]

First, Quirin points only apply to the 1st fraction, start to 1st call, so what happens after the 1st call is not even considered. Is the 1st call important, yes it is, but what happens after the first call is also important, maybe/probably more important.

Secondly, the Quirin points calculations only consider position and beaten lengths at the 1st call, so actual speed/velocity is not considered, nor is preferred running style.

And third, Quirin points give us an idea of how hard a horse will "fight" to gain a position that he is comfortable running, NOT how hard he will fight for the lead. The horse might not want the lead, that is more a question of preferred running style than of Q points.

Do high Q point horses often lead or contend for the lead by the 1st call? Yes, but that is because their past races will include more early positions and fewer beaten lengths at that call, so naturally those horses will often be at the front of the field at the 1st call.

IMO, Quirin points can be more effectively used in determining what the pace makeup of the field is, not not necessarily which horse, or horses, will be on or near the lead.

So, what does determine which horses will be on or near the lead? My opinion is that preferred running style and adjusted first fraction velocities/fractional times (or 1st call pace figures if they are very good figures), when compared with the other horses in the field, will more often point out the early leader(s) in a race.

Again, IMO, Quirin points are secondary to preferred running style and adjusted 1st call velocities/fractional time, or pace figure.

What is really important to me is, once I calculate which horses will be involved in the 1st call pace picture, which ones have the best actual speed available and how many of those horses are in the field. If there is only one such horse in the field, then that horse has a definite advantage, as he most probably will get the lead fairly easily and not have to "fight" for it, without tiring himself out too much early, leaving more energy reserves for the rest of the race. If there are 2 or more such horses, then things can quickly get out of control, for all of those horses, leading to much energy expenditure early, and leaving less energy reserves for the rest of the race.

Personally, I use both preferred running style and Quirin points, versus overall pace makeup/pressure of the field to "eliminate" horses, rather than "pick" horses that can win the race. I am not so much concerned with which horse gets the lead, but rather which horses will be strong towards the end of the race because except for lone early speed horses, as mentioned earlier who have a definite advantage, more races are won by horses "other than" the 1st call leader.

Just my 2 cents worth!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

First, Quirin points only apply to the 1st fraction, start to 1st call, so what happens after the 1st call is not even considered. Is the 1st call important, yes it is, but what happens after the first call is also important, maybe/probably more important.

Secondly, the Quirin points calculations only consider position and beaten lengths at the 1st call, so actual speed/velocity is not considered, nor is preferred running style.

And third, Quirin points give us an idea of how hard a horse will "fight" to gain a position that he is comfortable running, NOT how hard he will fight for the lead. The horse might not want the lead, that is more a question of preferred running style than of Q points.

Do high Q point horses often lead or contend for the lead by the 1st call? Yes, but that is because their past races will include more early positions and fewer beaten lengths at that call, so naturally those horses will often be at the front of the field at the 1st call.

IMO, Quirin points can be more effectively used in determining what the pace makeup of the field is, not not necessarily which horse, or horses, will be on or near the lead.

So, what does determine which horses will be on or near the lead? My opinion is that preferred running style and adjusted first fraction velocities/fractional times (or 1st call pace figures if they are very good figures), when compared with the other horses in the field, will more often point out the early leader(s) in a race.

Again, IMO, Quirin points are secondary to preferred running style and adjusted 1st call velocities/fractional time, or pace figure.

What is really important to me is, once I calculate which horses will be involved in the 1st call pace picture, which ones have the best actual speed available and how many of those horses are in the field. If there is only one such horse in the field, then that horse has a definite advantage, as he most probably will get the lead fairly easily and not have to "fight" for it, without tiring himself out too much early, leaving more energy reserves for the rest of the race. If there are 2 or more such horses, then things can quickly get out of control, for all of those horses, leading to much energy expenditure early, and leaving less energy reserves for the rest of the race.

Personally, I use both preferred running style and Quirin points, versus overall pace makeup/pressure of the field to "eliminate" horses, rather than "pick" horses that can win the race. I am not so much concerned with which horse gets the lead, but rather which horses will be strong towards the end of the race because except for lone early speed horses, as mentioned earlier who have a definite advantage, more races are won by horses "other than" the 1st call leader.

Just my 2 cents worth!

It's worth much more than that...

[Dave Schwartz]

IMO, Quirin points can be more effectively used in determining what the pace makeup of the field is, not not necessarily which horse, or horses, will be on or near the lead.

My experience, precisely.

So, what does determine which horses will be on or near the lead? My opinion is that preferred running style and adjusted first fraction velocities/fractional times (or 1st call pace figures if they are very good figures), when compared with the other horses in the field, will more often point out the early leader(s) in a race.

I see running style as the foremost factor.

Again, IMO, Quirin points are secondary to preferred running style and adjusted 1st call velocities/fractional time, or pace figure.

I use Quirin ES Points to determine who is LIKELY to "create pace pressure" rather than "go to the lead."

Then I ask the question, "Of these horses, which are the most likely winners?"

In many races where there figures to be less-than-normal pace pressure, horses are often put into the position of being where the do not want to be. In other words, you may have a mid-pack horse (2-4 points) that will be thrust into the role of "push the leader." If he does not choose to push, then the leader(s) romp off and leave the field behind in a runaway.