What do you think is the most common mistake horse bettors are usually committing?

[NY BRED]

thinking the morning line rates the ability of each horse
as against how the public will bet the specific race

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

A+ in math
I had to pull out the abacus to check the answer.

What if you're betting even money shot types? If an even money shot has a 50% chance to win, and 42% after takeout, you arent going to lose too many bets in a row on a 42% probability.

If you only bet horses between 4-5 and 6-5 and you had a bankroll of 100k and the most you bet was 100 to win, it would probably take a REALLY long time to go bust, you probably wouldnt go bust in your lifetime even if you had no handicapping experience and just randomly bet on even money shot types. If you had serious handicapping skill and were very picky as to which even money shots you bet, it would take just that much longer to go bust.

[rastajenk]

My response to the original question would be forgetting why it was ever fun in the first place.

[Tom]

Not wearing a sweatband and cool sunglasses.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by badcompany

The difference with games like Horseracing and poker is that players play them recreationally. That's fine. I've never heard of anyone accumulating any wealth this way.

If you're treating it as an income stream, it must be taken seriously, and that means a bankroll and proper position sizing.

Rambo makes the good point that bet size should be tied to hit rate. With most of the money in exotic pools, these days, that would indicate a smaller, not larger, bet size.

It all depends on the player's particular betting style. Even in exotic wagering...it is possible to construct your ticket in such a way where your chances of cashing are pretty high. I have an exacta-betting strategy which I use exclusively for generating income from the rebates. I use this exacta strategy only in competitive, full fields...and I use as many as 3 horses on top, with 4 horses second. Sometimes I'll even box 4 horses. The worst I've ever done with this method is break even in a season...and the rebates are pure profit. My win rate with this method is good enough for me to be confident that I will never go broke, even if I bet 2% of my bankroll on each individual race.

The betting strategies we use, and the amounts that we bet, must be parts of a "main plan"; they can't be haphazardly thrown together...

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

My response to the original question would be forgetting why it was ever fun in the first place.

That's accurate for some of the guys I see at the track. The fun of the sport has long since left them. It's all business and high blood pressure.

Originally Posted by Tom

Not wearing a sweatband and cool sunglasses.

Be accurate, Tom. Not wearing a sweatband, cool Heart-Shaped sunglasses, a suit, and a tail.

[Dave Schwartz]

Betting as if they have a winning approach when they don't.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It all depends on the player's particular betting style. Even in exotic wagering...it is possible to construct your ticket in such a way where your chances of cashing are pretty high. I have an exacta-betting strategy which I use exclusively for generating income from the rebates. I use this exacta strategy only in competitive, full fields...and I use as many as 3 horses on top, with 4 horses second. Sometimes I'll even box 4 horses. The worst I've ever done with this method is break even in a season...and the rebates are pure profit. My win rate with this method is good enough for me to be confident that I will never go broke, even if I bet 2% of my bankroll on each individual race.

The betting strategies we use, and the amounts that we bet, must be parts of a "main plan"; they can't be haphazardly thrown together...

You're citing an exception, not the rule, which is that players play exotics because they want a bigger per dollar payoff. With that bigger payout comes a lower hit rate.

Sure, some sharp players can get away with over betting, but , the bulk will get in trouble, fast, usually with the first nasty losing streak.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by badcompany

You're citing an exception, not the rule, which is that players play exotics because they want a bigger per dollar payoff. With that bigger payout comes a lower hit rate.

Sure, some sharp players can get away with over betting, but , the bulk will get in trouble, fast, usually with the first nasty losing streak.

I agree.

Another rule is that proper "money management" can only be useful when the expectation is positive...and the "advantage" players are obviously the "exception" rather than the rule. When you are a losing player...all you can hope for from proper money management is a slower rate of loss.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Betting as if they have a winning approach when they don't.

Yep, that's where the "thorough record keeping" and "being brutally honest with oneself" comes into play.

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by raybo

Yep, that's where the "thorough record keeping" and "being brutally honest with oneself" comes into play.

The biggest lie is the one we tell ourselves.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Betting as if they have a winning approach when they don't.

And believing that because some particular strategy or tactic worked last week, last month, or last year, that somehow guarantees that future events will be forced into alignment with past results. Reality doesn't work like that.

[Valuist]

No question its betting too many races and we all are probably guilty of it. Just some worse than others.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I agree.

Another rule is that proper "money management" can only be useful when the expectation is positive...and the "advantage" players are obviously the "exception" rather than the rule. When you are a losing player...all you can hope for from proper money management is a slower rate of loss.

True, but losing players/traders can and do become winners. Good Money Management buys you more time to do so.

I'm currently getting serious about currency trading. However, I'm still pretty green and am experimenting with different styles and timeframes. I'm not expecting to be immediately profitable, but I'm keeping my trade sizes so small that whatever losses I take get dwarfed by the money I feed into the account each month.

I like this line from my all time favorite Jesse Livermore:

"A trader’s capital is like a shop keeper’s inventory. Don’t lose it! “

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Fingal

The biggest lie is the one we tell ourselves.

Especially in lala land.

“If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.”

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/553-...ie-and-tell-it