Help with Top Angles in Points System

[Dave Schwartz]

One issue I see here is that there is no RELATIVE value component.

Taking your example of more than 40 points for a 40-point horse:

Some fields will (I believe) have less points than others. (Perhaps not, as I did not look closely at the factors.)

Another issue is that the more obvious that 8/5 horse becomes the more likely you will ultimately get 4/5 instead of 8/5.

IOW, if he gets 70 points and is 8/5 he probably won't be anywhere near 8/5 in the winner's circle, although he may well be when the gate opens.

[fmolf]

Best speed at this exact distance has gotten me some nice winners. As well as best record at this track aka as horse for course....You also might try some of Cramers angles' class drop/jock switch...class drop/surface switch...class drop/track change to name a few... There are so many variations and subsets and permutations of your basic handicapping angles that it must be very hard to assign %'s to them....As handicappers we are basically doing the same thing every race we look at without assigning a ridgid point total to these angles but rather weighting them as each horse ranks in relation to the other horses and the attributes needed to win each race.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

1.) Best speed rating in last 2.

2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.

3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.

4.) Class level of most recent race.

5.) Class level of most recent "sharp" race (win, or less than a length behind at the finish).

6.) Number of wins and second-place finishes in last 10 races.

I want to be sure I am understanding...a little foggy this morning
2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.
are you saying avg. all PP speed ratings available but don't pick the highest rather consider the second highest? If so, curious about this .
3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.
are you saying look at position at stretch call for the leader or the horse closest to the leader?

Thanks for clarification.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

I want to be sure I am understanding...a little foggy this morning
2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.
are you saying avg. all PP speed ratings available but don't pick the highest rather consider the second highest? If so, curious about this .
3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.
are you saying look at position at stretch call for the leader or the horse closest to the leader?

Thanks for clarification.

I'd be happy to clarify...and I apologize for any confusion:

2.) No. I mean scan the speed-figure column of the horses...and pick, not the best one -- but the second-best one. The theory being that many horses are capable of a big figure once...when the planets align properly. It takes a better horse to do it TWICE.

3.) I am looking at the position of the given horse relative to the leader -- length-wise, not just position-wise. It is important, IMO, that a horse possess the ability to be close at the stretch call in at least some of its races. I realized this many years ago...when I noticed the desperation that washed over me whenever I found my selection languishing well-behind the field at the stretch call.

[dav4463]

Add two best speed figures in last three races....rank horses 1-4, give all others a 6

Rank top 4 jockeys...assign 1-4, give others a 6

Rank top 4 early speed horses (2nd and 3rd call position)....rank top 4, assign others a 6

add rankings together

top three lowest scoring horses are your contenders.....it's up to you to decide which one or two to bet.



OH, HERE IS THE KEY TO THE METHOD:


AFTER you do these rankings......TOSS the top THREE LAST RACE SPEED FIGURE HORSES.....this is a longshot method. Bet to win/place or use in exactas with top 3 figure horses that you eliminated.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thaskalos' angles are supported by my research in Percentages and Probabilities as well.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Thaskalos' angles are supported by my research in Percentages and Probabilities as well.

Was there ever any doubt?

I decided to start sharing some of my most closely-guarded "secrets", Dave...to dispel TLG's notion that I was the most overrated poster of this site.

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I decided to start sharing some of my most closely-guarded "secrets"

Thank you! I have a question: do you require that all these conditions were true simultaneously?