|
|
01-25-2014, 01:49 AM
|
#16
|
Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Unless I think one of them will move below 5/2 after they enter the gate, then I would just bet the other 2 horses. If there are 3 at or above 5/2, and I think they will all go off at that or higher, yes I will bet all 3.
5/2 odds gets me a small profit (at a $2 bet, 5/2 pays $7 and only $6 would be bet total, so I make a slight profit if the 5/2 wins). If the other 2 are higher odds and either wins then I make a larger profit.
Win bets are only cash flow support for my superfecta play, so I'm not looking to make a killing with my win bets.
|
So you get you're 4 contenders and then make the line of 5/2? How did you come up with those four horses?
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 01:54 AM
|
#17
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 236
|
I'm going with Intense Holiday. Thought he shied a little from Wicked Strong in last and like the work pattern since then - think he'll come out more seasoned. Will put those two on top of any exactas. Don't like the .
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 01:56 AM
|
#18
|
Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
|
For what its worth, the 9th race Saturday at Gulfstream feels ripe for a price.
I really like the #4 Hunting Hill and the #8 Guard the Lines, both are 8-1 morning line. Would also use #7 Calm Water she is 4-1 morning line, but feel like she will be bet. The morning line favorite is the #12 All Star Kitten, I really dont believe she is much horse and am excited to play against her. Even the #3 Innate Grace is worth using at 20-1 morning line. Going first time turf w/ a decent turf family.
Last edited by Thebigguy; 01-25-2014 at 01:57 AM.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 02:23 AM
|
#19
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 7,727
|
I like Financial Mogul. He had to wait last time out in the Nashua. I wish Violette did a little better off a layoff but that stat is just going to help the price.
I don't know what to make of the Remsen. About the only thing I can say is nobody should have quit with those fractions.
__________________
One flew east, one flew west,
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 03:13 AM
|
#20
|
Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,148
|
im betting that pletcher colt dont ask me why im too drunk
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 09:46 AM
|
#21
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,633
|
I'll take a stab with the in here for Jerkins. Finished right behind the 3-1 ML favorite in the G2 Remsen & Castellano jumps off the undefeated Brown colt to ride here. That and 8-1 on the ML give this one a chance.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 10:23 AM
|
#22
|
Slope Handicapping ™
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Mount Holly, New Jersey
Posts: 1,120
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by KidCapper
I'll take a stab with the in here for Jerkins. Finished right behind the 3-1 ML favorite in the G2 Remsen & Castellano jumps off the undefeated Brown colt to ride here. That and 8-1 on the ML give this one a chance.
|
The Gulfstream lines are notoriously bad, he's got 4-1 or lower all over him.
__________________
Slope Handicapping ™ - winning since 2005
Our learning institutions only want diversity in appearances, not in thoughts.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 10:27 AM
|
#23
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: NJ
Posts: 2,098
|
I'll check out 3 of them when the odds are up
No particular order
- Financial Mogul - others mentioned the Violette lay off angle which I don't like either. One plus - worked him at 8F a week ago which is a bit unusual
- Cairo Prince - working well and has a GR2 win already, bounced a bit with figs in last race and still almost won
- Wicked Song - similar feelings as Cairo Prince; looks like he's coming into race working well.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 10:36 AM
|
#24
|
EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
So you get you're 4 contenders and then make the line of 5/2? How did you come up with those four horses?
|
My program tests tracks in 11 different rankings methods, I use the ranking method that works best at each track. The program also produces a minimum odds report with data from .01/1 or higher odds through 11/1 or higher odds, showing number of races played, hit rates, ROI, and profit/loss. I use the minimum odds level that produces the best combination of number of plays, hit rate, ROI, and profit, for that rankings method. At GP, my "PFV" rankings method works best (for my needs), at 5/2 or higher odds, playing the top 3 ranked horses in the "PFV" rankings method. The 4 horses I listed are the top 3 ranked "PFV" horses, but the 4th ranked horse tied with the 3rd ranked horse, so I have 4 win contenders. I am pretty sure at least one of those 4 will be under 5/2, so to make a profit, regardless of which of the other 3 horses wins, I need 5/2 odds or higher on those 3 remaining horses. If the horse that I didn't bet, the one that is under 5/2 odds, beats me, then he beats me, it's just another loss, like any other loss.
In a field of this size, 11 horses, any individual horse in the field is more likely to lose than to win, so not betting the low odds horse is not that big of a risk. Plus I still have 3 horses I can make money on.
Last edited by raybo; 01-25-2014 at 10:47 AM.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 10:46 AM
|
#25
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,612
|
The only thing about the Holy Bull that interests me is the fact that the Remsen Stakes had a ridiculously slow pace.
Because of that, you could argue that Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday finished better than Cairo Prince and represent good value. But I've also seen instances of these extremely slow paces where who finished best was not an indication of who was actually best, just who had the best late speed when none of the horses were used early. In the rematch, the same horse won, just more conclusively when the pace was honest. I prefer betting these horses that closed off slow paces when there is back form that indicates they are actually better. So IMO, you need a bit more price to speculate on what you haven't seen yet.
With so many other horses in the race also eligible to step up strongly and run a new top, I can't see how I can get into this race without a very good price. There are no short priced horses to hate. It's a terrific race.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 01-25-2014 at 10:50 AM.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 10:50 AM
|
#26
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
|
Wicked Strong's pedigree sure is easy to like .
Hard Spun
----------->Charismatic
------------------------->With Approval
----------------------------------------->Copelan
DI = 2.27 CD = 0.50
http://www.pedigreequery.com/wicked+strong
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 01:57 PM
|
#27
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
|
I'm on the , WICKED STRONG, also. Each race better than the one before, and will certainly be finishing in here. Afraid of Shug's .
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 03:28 PM
|
#28
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
|
If you set aside the extreme pace scenarios in the pace run lines from the BC Juv and Remsen(that's the only way I can find a way into this)a lot of them look good.I too like Wicked and especially that 1:40 mile work.Cairo is legitimate but not at this price.Lot of options and hopefully price if you are right.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 04:00 PM
|
#29
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,550
|
I looked at the PPs and thought " Wicked Strong looks good and also Cairo Prince.. but then I see most of the board has them on their radar..
Might just play a small super with 8 - 2 - 7 and 11. Agreeing 100% with Shemp Howard's post earlier in other thread
Looks like a nice race!
Also betting a small show bet on Our Caravan since no one is talking about that one
Last edited by iceknight; 01-25-2014 at 04:04 PM.
|
|
|
01-25-2014, 05:04 PM
|
#30
|
ClassPars
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Tampa, FL
Posts: 31
|
Holy Bull
#11 Intense Holiday
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|