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06-06-2020, 05:39 AM
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#1996
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highernote
Based on the momentum buy trigger that was tripped in my model on April 17 I am predicting S&P500 of 3,305 by October 17.
Typically when this particular buy signal is triggered the market rises an average of 15% over the next 6 months.
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The sp500 closed at 2874 on Apr 17 and I predicted 3305 by Oct 17. I am sticking with that, but making a new prediction.
Based on my momentum model a double-buy trigger was tripped on June 6 when the sp500 closed at 3193. I predict sp500 of 3673 by December 6.
The ratio of Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks over the past 10 trading days is greater than 2 to 1. That is huge buying momentum.
The ratio of Buy Volume to Sell Volume on June 6 was 9 to 1. That is also huge buying volume. 9 times as many stocks were bought as were sold.
Time to go all in.
Happy days are here again -- at least for people who are long stocks. The rest will probably have to wait until fall or later to get back to normal. But who knows if the new normal will be the same as the old normal.
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06-08-2020, 05:17 PM
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#1997
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highernote
The sp500 closed at 2874 on Apr 17 and I predicted 3305 by Oct 17. I am sticking with that, but making a new prediction.
Based on my momentum model a double-buy trigger was tripped on June 6 when the sp500 closed at 3193. I predict sp500 of 3673 by December 6.
The ratio of Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks over the past 10 trading days is greater than 2 to 1. That is huge buying momentum.
The ratio of Buy Volume to Sell Volume on June 6 was 9 to 1. That is also huge buying volume. 9 times as many stocks were bought as were sold.
Time to go all in.
Happy days are here again -- at least for people who are long stocks. The rest will probably have to wait until fall or later to get back to normal. But who knows if the new normal will be the same as the old normal.
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It's been quite a ride. I got totally out of equities at about 3300 in Feb, and went back all in at about 2600 in March. I did not want repeat of 2008 to my 401(k) accounts, and figured this could be my last chance at making some better moves prior to retirement.
My gut keeps telling me that between the upcoming election and how sharp this move has been, I'm skating on thin ice. I will not hesitate to bail out and protect the stash when things turn.
Thanks for these updates!
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06-08-2020, 05:19 PM
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#1998
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Start selling. Sharp reversal ahead.
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The question is when?
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06-08-2020, 06:54 PM
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#1999
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Watch the rotation. Since about May 20th technology has lagged the S&P. Financials since that time have outperformed.
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06-08-2020, 07:21 PM
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#2000
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Russ
The question is when?
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I apologize. I was all wrong.
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06-08-2020, 08:46 PM
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#2001
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
I apologize. I was all wrong.
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No apologies needed. I'm very happy that others are willing to share opinions about the market. Thanks.
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06-09-2020, 10:59 AM
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#2002
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,770
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they are outlawing red paint for these markets.
Hertz went bankrupt when they were under $1.00 per share, now $5.00
nobody wants to get on an airplane, those stocks are way up along with cruise lines and hotels. everything is up. what a beautiful world this is.
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06-09-2020, 03:38 PM
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#2003
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,770
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Robin Track
https://robintrack.net/
they love buying bankrupt company's.
todays play looks like PLM
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06-09-2020, 03:51 PM
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#2004
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,770
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NKLA another hot stock for the day, they got on the exchange with a reverse stock merger.
everything sounds great about this company with electric trucks that can go 500 miles.
i don't trust it though. but the stock sure as f--- is moving
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06-09-2020, 03:52 PM
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#2005
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
they are outlawing red paint for these markets.
Hertz went bankrupt when they were under $1.00 per share, now $5.00
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Also inexplicably, used car prices have risen, and Hertz's fleet is the asset that backs the debt, and its appearing that Hertz can absorb the bankruptcy due to this.
Creditors can be paid back by refinancing the fleet value. Supposedly.
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06-09-2020, 03:58 PM
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#2006
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,770
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these guys pushed up F, GE, and a bunch of other dogs that i would love to short..
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06-09-2020, 04:30 PM
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#2007
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
these guys pushed up F, GE, and a bunch of other dogs that i would love to short..
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I might short hertz. but like playing Craps, I'm always on the pass line. Short positions feel like the do not pass line.
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06-09-2020, 04:38 PM
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#2008
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suff
I might short hertz. but like playing Craps, I'm always on the pass line. Short positions feel like the do not pass line.
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i am not a don't player on the craps table either, but going long or short is like betting the favorite or the underdog in a game to me. its all reletive because you have to play with stops in these markets today otherwise you can get wiped out. -
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06-10-2020, 02:18 PM
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#2009
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Lamboguy
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
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Lamboguy, I just wanted to thank you for pointing me towards considering companies that use or mine manganese. The steel company X, is up 20% since getting in. And Vale is up about 4% in less than a week. The other miner, I haven't been able to get, lightly traded and OTC is up about 5%. I considered NUE for my other steel company, but Pricing was more attractive to me with US Steel. Manganese is also used in copper and aluminum, but I haven't looked at them yet.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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06-10-2020, 03:28 PM
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#2010
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
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PLM going back to its place in hell today even though precious metals are rocking and rolling today.
i would have shorted that one, but i don't like f==== little ants.
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