Who makes the morning line odds and what info do they use?

[toddbowker]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Thank you for the input here...great to get info from those who actually do the ML...was wondering if you could expand on the bold portion above...why doesn’t the track want wild early odds swings..?

If that bet is an aberration (the horse shouldn't be 1/9 and won't be that way at close) it hurts the casual fan. If someone bets a horse down to 1/9 with an early big bet, the casual fans migrate to playing that horse. Can also get regular players to start looking at a horse thinking they've missed something, and can move lines on a betting exchange. Not that big a deal for sophisticated players who would probably mostly ignore it.

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

oh, and yes, i’ve often thought that pre-arranged ML’s based on number of starters are commonly employed by ML makers...I can’t imagine them going through the thinking process of “what the public will wager on” for most of the races...maybe the feature and big events, but for the mundane 6-7 horse fields, how can anyone consistently and reasonably expect to know what the public will do...?

I had several for each field size (more the larger the field size). Just made it easier to make sure my line calculated properly. Still had to go through the thought process on how I thought the public would bet. One size didn't fit all. I did have to create them on the fly too, but it definitely helped as normally I was on a tight deadline after scratch time to get the info to the print shop.

Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY

Can you share these 5-6 stock issue starting lines minus the tweaks?

Unfortunately, those got tossed a long time ago ...

[PaceAdvantage]

There are many ways to use the M/L as one tool in the arsenal. I know I have done so, and recently.

People here bashing M/Ls are like the people who bash speed figures. Neither knows what to do with the thing, so they toss it aside and declare it useless.

Funny stuff.

Dave Schwartz actually knows what he's talking about. That about says it all for me.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

There are many ways to use the M/L as one tool in the arsenal. I know I have done so, and recently.

People here bashing M/Ls are like the people who bash speed figures. Neither knows what to do with the thing, so they toss it aside and declare it useless.

Funny stuff.

Dave Schwartz actually knows what he's talking about. That about says it all for me.

No one suggested that you and Dave Schwartz don't "know what you are talking about". But some of the rest of us like to think that we know what we are talking about too.

[Big Peps]

A few years ago, I started getting in a rut trying to play too much value all the time and leaving chalk out of horizontal wagers just because I was trying to hit home runs, also trying to hit 20-1 ML horses in pick and pray contests. That said, I started handicapping and using DRF form prior to ML being posted on them. I have had much more success since then. Obviously, it's pretty easy to tell when there will be heavy chalk given prior performances and connections but one would be surprised how things go here. Like I said, I am mostly a win and horizontal wager type player.

There was something in my mental chemistry where I was just trying to cash 5 figure pick 4 and 5 tickets as opposed to making solid scores. Just the way I do things but it has helped me personally. Also you may find yourself singled to a 12-1 to 15-1 once in a while with a nicw win bet there as well but that's the game.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I’m making the opposite argument: The ML is accurate (for contenders, mainly) and meaningful. That is why I don’t want my competitors to have it...KNOWLEDGE IS POWER...let every come to their own conclusions...don’t give them any help...I want more value on my contender, please don’t point out my horse to all the nuckleheads...

If you really think anyone is finding your secret horse because of the morning line and that they wouldn't have found it anyway, I don't know what to tell you. It's just fantasyland.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Here's what the morning-line odds maker at Arlington Park says about his job.

https://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

Good article! Covers everything about the M/L.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Good article! Covers everything about the M/L.

Thanks. I thought so too.

[Tom]

Small snapshot, just September through Sunday.
ML Favs all races = 38% winners, .83 roi
They are in over half of all exactas.

By comparison, top speed fig last race same sampel hits 28% and has roi of .84

Betting blind races - horizontals - you would get more winners using ML than top SR.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No one suggested that you and Dave Schwartz don't "know what you are talking about". But some of the rest of us like to think that we know what we are talking about too.

^THIS^….

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Here's what the morning-line odds maker at Arlington Park says about his job.

https://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

The author's understanding of how take works is wrong. See his quote below.

"The takeout in the win pool in Illinois is 17 percent. Therefore, by adding 17 to a base of 100, we arrive at 117 points. Then, by designating an additional point per horse, the morning line will generally balance between 125 and 129 points for fields consisting of eight to 12 horses.

Once each race is assigned a point value, the oddsmaker must now balance the field of horses to add up to the designated total (give or take a point or two). In an eight-horse field in Illinois the point value is 117 + 8 = 125."

If he adds AP's 17% take to 100 and gets 117%, he's doing it wrong. To calculate it correctly, you want to divide 100/(1.00-.17), or 100/.83=120 points, not 117. He then reasons that by adding 1 to every horse's odds, you should get somewhere between 125-129 in an 8-12 horse field. So occasionally he accidently comes up with 120; if he has 12 horses in a race he comes up with 129% until he tweaks the odds.

Here's an example showing a 17% take and the respective win pools.
True------------- Pool
odds--Pct----$ 100,000.00----17% take---- Adj. pool ---Pay odds---adj. %
2.5----29%----28,571.43-----4,857.14-----23,714.29----1.90-------34%
4.5----18%----18,181.8------ 3,090.91-----15,090.91----3.56-------22%
5------17%----16,666.67------2,833.33-----13,833.33----3.98-------20%
6------14%-----14,285.71-----2,428.57-----11,857.14----4.81-------17%
11------8%------8,333.33-----1,416.67-------6,916.67----8.96-------10%
12------8%------7,692.31-----1,307.69-------6,384.62----9.79--------9%
15------6%------6,250.00-----1,062.50-------5,187.50---12.28--------8%
----100.0%-----99,981.27---16,996.82------82,984.45---------------120%

He may be a good ML setter based on his "18 years of handicapping" but his understanding basic math is not so good. Otherwise it was a decent article.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

The author's understanding of how take works is wrong. See his quote below.

He may be a good ML setter based on his "18 years of handicapping" but his understanding basic math is not so good. Otherwise it was a decent article.

Yes, I didn't understand that part of his math either.

[Poindexter]

One other point about the morning line, the better it is the more likely it is you can see "live" horses. If you have a line like the following


morning line/actual
1) 6/12
2) 8/9
3) 4/7
4) 2/1
5) 4/4
6) 8/4.5
7) 10/8

Obviously the 4 is the expected chalk and winner. But the question is why are the 1 and 3 dramatically higher and the 6 and 7 are actually bet down despite the money on the chalk. It could be a bad morning line or it could be the smart money telling you that the 6 is live and the 7 is sneaky live(still bet down despite the 4 and 6 receiving heavy action).

[Maximillion]

Count me as one of the idiots who likes having the morning line in there.
If the horse im considering is the actual ML favorite my interest pretty much stops there....even though I know the ML can be often meaningless.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No one suggested that you and Dave Schwartz don't "know what you are talking about".

I agree. With that said, what was wrong with me saying that?

[Thomas Roulston]

Of course only certain numerical values are used in morning lines. A common list of such numerical values is the following: 1-5, 2-5, 3-5, 4-5, 1-1, 6-5, 7-5, 8-5, 9-5, 2-1, 5-2, 3-1, 7-2, 4-1, 9-2, 5-1, 6-1, 8-1, 10-1, 12-1, 15-1, 20-1, 30-1, and 50-1.