Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-16-2018, 01:11 AM   #1
martini
Registered User
 
martini's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Oregon USA
Posts: 52
First-time geldings

Does anyone have some data to share on first-time geldings? A week ago at Del Mar (8/8 R8) there were two in the field in a $20K maiden claimer: Pacific Song (19-1) and Sterling's Temple (17-1). I used the latter in my exotics, but the former was coming off of a huge layoff and didn't seem to be a contender, other than being gelded since his last start.

Pacific Song finished over Sterling's Temple.

Is the first-time gelding angle profitable and can be backed up by stats, or is it a losing angle?
martini is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2018, 01:18 AM   #2
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by martini View Post
Does anyone have some data to share on first-time geldings? A week ago at Del Mar (8/8 R8) there were two in the field in a $20K maiden claimer: Pacific Song (19-1) and Sterling's Temple (17-1). I used the latter in my exotics, but the former was coming off of a huge layoff and didn't seem to be a contender, other than being gelded since his last start.

Pacific Song finished over Sterling's Temple.

Is the first-time gelding angle profitable and can be backed up by stats, or is it a losing angle?
The biggest problem with trying to do stats on first time geldings is that it is often reported incorrectly. You can usually figure it out but it takes some work to get it correct in a database. In any case, it won't be profitable. That is a promise.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2018, 01:20 AM   #3
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
Just betting them all will lose money. CJ is right.
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2018, 01:37 AM   #4
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
The biggest problem with trying to do stats on first time geldings is that it is often reported incorrectly. You can usually figure it out but it takes some work to get it correct in a database. In any case, it won't be profitable. That is a promise.

Well..


1) They are always overbet as to what they should be.


and now...



2) The 2nd time out after Gelding is getting overbet.


When does the 3rd time after gelded angle come out as being somewhat "popular"?
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-16-2018, 09:28 PM   #5
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,573
Don't bet on first time geldings coming off a week layoff.
Redboard is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 12:14 AM   #6
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
I knew someone years ago that called them Jell Dings
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 08:08 AM   #7
bustersbud
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 1
I would agree on unprofitable over long run. But this spring I was at Oaklawn with my wife and they were going over the changes for the day and announced in Race 1 this horse as a gelding - wasn't in the program. My wife asked me what it meant and why he we cared. I told her I didn't. She put $2 to win on the horse that went off over 50-1 and he won by about 4 lengths. I was wishing I or she had put a little more than the $2 on that hunch.
bustersbud is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-24-2018, 09:51 AM   #8
ubercapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,229
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
The biggest problem with trying to do stats on first time geldings is that it is often reported incorrectly. You can usually figure it out but it takes some work to get it correct in a database. In any case, it won't be profitable. That is a promise.



CJ is right. Using Stats Race Lens, it took me less than five minutes to run baseline stats on horses races after first time reported as a gelding:


First Start after reported as a gelding, last 365 Days:
9420 starters, 6387 races, 11% win, 11% place, 12% show -39% ROI
ubercapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-27-2018, 11:38 PM   #9
chadk66
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
There are so many variables involved I can’t see how one could use it as a handicapping tool. Things as recovery rates, length of time after the actual procedure, length of time any given horse needs to actually benefit from the procedure. That alone varies immensely.
chadk66 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-28-2018, 09:32 AM   #10
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper View Post

First Start after reported as a gelding, last 365 Days:
9420 starters, 6387 races, 11% win, 11% place, 12% show -39% ROI


This is why having data is so helpful.

Horse players believe all sorts of things based on what they read in a best selling book, because they cashed a few winners on some angle one time and it made a strong impression, someone whose opinion they respect told them etc... Some of it is utter hogwash, but they'll argue it, promote it as a valuable angle, continue betting it etc...

I try not to add anything to my game unless I've tested it thoroughly and know it either adds value to my betting or to my ability to create a better odds line. I never look at gelding info because I've never had the ability to test it. Seems that was a good idea. The again, maybe not. Perhaps I should have been tossing them.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-29-2018, 07:42 PM   #11
linrom1
Veteran
 
linrom1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
A former trainer told me to always check the date when the horse was gelded and give them couple of months to recuperate.

He said never to bet on recently gelded horses, he told me some of the ones he had gelded looked like they wanted to die so he would always send them to a farm to perk up and get better after the procedure.
linrom1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-29-2018, 08:35 PM   #12
chadk66
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1 View Post
A former trainer told me to always check the date when the horse was gelded and give them couple of months to recuperate.

He said never to bet on recently gelded horses, he told me some of the ones he had gelded looked like they wanted to die so he would always send them to a farm to perk up and get better after the procedure.
I agree with that trainer to a degree. To me there is no consistency with gelding a horse. But after the procedure the best thing to do is cold water therapy and take them to the track to jog the very next day. Otherwise they can swell up like a damn softball. The sooner you exercise em the better.
chadk66 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.