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04-09-2010, 10:27 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: WNY
Posts: 444
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second guessing- huge mistake
My handicapping and wagering method was designed to be followed without making post- analysis, pre- race snap judgments. This was meant to eliminate the flaws in wagering such as chasing losses and anything that can cloud judgement.
Last night, I ignored the system and changed my bet. Of course, the system pick wins and I lose $100 instead of winning $4000. Between the lost winnings and the additional loss (turning a profit into an 8 race loss streak), now I can't sleep and feel sick. I'm trying to build up my betting reserve and this sets me back possibly 2-3 months and puts me closer to going bust.
I've been an entrepreneur for 20 years, so I am used to risk, but this is effecting me more than anything else has!
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04-09-2010, 10:32 AM
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#2
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Wellcome to the club.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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04-09-2010, 10:35 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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Someone on this board told me once that if you get off your system even once your sysem will never win.
I would not be surprised to find out that everyone has cried themselves to sleep at least once over that mistake.
__________________
Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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04-09-2010, 11:10 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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Once your method has been researched, refined and validated the bets should be automatic. I have heard that a few players write down their plays of the day on an index card and never deviate unless there is a scratch...seems to work for the system players.
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04-09-2010, 12:47 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
My handicapping and wagering method was designed to be followed without making post- analysis, pre- race snap judgments. This was meant to eliminate the flaws in wagering such as chasing losses and anything that can cloud judgement.
Last night, I ignored the system and changed my bet. Of course, the system pick wins and I lose $100 instead of winning $4000. Between the lost winnings and the additional loss (turning a profit into an 8 race loss streak), now I can't sleep and feel sick. I'm trying to build up my betting reserve and this sets me back possibly 2-3 months and puts me closer to going bust.
I've been an entrepreneur for 20 years, so I am used to risk, but this is effecting me more than anything else has!
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You sound as if you don't normally deviate from your method. I sincerely sympathize with you, and I don't mean to aggravate your situation, but (since you started the thread) what caused you to change your bet? If anything can be gained from this, it would perhaps be additional reinforcement for greater confidence and discipline in future wagers with your method.
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04-09-2010, 01:30 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 269
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By less than 5 seconds, I got locked out of race that woulda netted me an $8,000 triple. Stung but you gotta either let it go or take a break.
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04-09-2010, 01:42 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: WNY
Posts: 444
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Overlay
You sound as if you don't normally deviate from your method. I sincerely sympathize with you, and I don't mean to aggravate your situation, but (since you started the thread) what caused you to change your bet? If anything can be gained from this, it would perhaps be additional reinforcement for greater confidence and discipline in future wagers with your method.
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I lost 7 in a row, which is not a problem since my reserve can handle 30 losses, but now and then, my system makes wacky picks. This race, the ML fav was ranked last and the highest ML horse was ranked third. I play my pick on top of a part wheel EX (1-2,1-3). When I saw the odds soaring on the 1-3 combo, I don't know- I guess I panicked. I dropped the fav into the long shot's place. Stupid mistake- trusting the betting public more than my research. I think you're right though- if this doesn't reinforce my faith in the method, I should give up the game!
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04-09-2010, 01:45 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: WNY
Posts: 444
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Wellcome to the club.
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Do we get jackets?
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04-09-2010, 01:53 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
Do we get jackets?
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LOL, I wish.
Only time a last minute bet did me any good was War Emblem in the Derby.
I almost always lose when I second guess.
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04-09-2010, 02:14 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
Do we get jackets?
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Yes Schag, a straight one.... 
best,
__________________
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"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
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04-09-2010, 02:23 PM
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#11
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
Do we get jackets?
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No, but there is a secert handshake.
[YT="secert handshake"]kASXEETsu3M[/YT]
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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