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02-06-2021, 10:59 AM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Formula 2002 exacta play study
Formula 2002 exacta play study
Reviewing every race, my study now includes 579 races.
45 of those races were determined to be non-playable, leaving 534 playable races.
Here are the $1 exacta returns using the top two public choices with my system horses (x) at determined bet sizes.
Column 1, x/favorite, $0.73, 13% wins
Column 2, x /second favorite, $1.23, 23% wins
Column 3, favorite/ x, $0.98, 22% wins
Column 4, second favorite / x , $0.62, 11% win
Recently, I converted these plays into a matrix format with a different bet size calculator.
I only have 75 races in this analysis returning a $1 return of $1.25, 52% wins
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-08-2021, 09:00 AM
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#2
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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column #2, 1 win in last 15 races
column #2 returned $6.18 over those 15 races.
I'll post again when column #2 turns positive over the next series of races.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-08-2021, 09:47 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Is there a spreadhseet link to your work? You mention columns 1,2, 3,4.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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02-08-2021, 06:06 PM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
Is there a spreadsheet link to your work? You mention columns 1,2, 3,4.
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here is a picture of the bottom of my excel sheet..
there is some more information in the selections forum, where i occasionaly post my plays
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-27-2021, 01:16 PM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-27-2021, 01:29 PM
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#6
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Gulfstream* Race 5
4 8 4 8
un un ov 0v
4 0 63 0 63
8 42 0 42 0
6 36 23 36 23
2 11 7 11 7
3 11 7 11 7
Code:
Gulfstream* Race 5 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT
KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 4 8 6 probability 89%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 12 0 10 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 14 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
335 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.90 0.00 36.70 0.00 37.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 208.42
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-27-2021, 01:54 PM
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#7
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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4/6 exacta wins $1 track exacta payout was $10.40
the matrix bet size (straight and reverse) was $208.42
the matrix bet returned $312
the column bet 2 bet size was $100
return was $0
the total bet size was $308.42 , the return $312 (10.4 x $30)
total play bet = $208.42 +100 =$308.42
$1 return =$312/$308.42 = $1.01
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-27-2021, 04:31 PM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Here are two additional notes about the study plays.
when there is no exacta matrix play, the col #2 $1 return is $1.35
when the is a exacta matrix play the column #3 produces a $1 return of $1.05
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 05:35 PM
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#9
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Fair Grounds* Race 8
3 4 3 4
un un ov 0v
3 0 70 0 70
4 43 0 43 0
8 57 30 57 30
7 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0
100 100 100 100 400
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 06:02 PM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Fair Grounds* Race 9
4 9 4 9
un un ov 0v
4 0 78 0 78
9 58 0 58 0
8 42 22 42 22
1 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0
100 100 100 100 400
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 06:14 PM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Santa Anita* Race 6 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT
KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 2 4 1 probability 81%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 0 12 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
2 12 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 11 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
218 23.51 24.37 0.00 24.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 145.28
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 06:27 PM
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#12
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.00 0.00 10.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.31
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 06:33 PM
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#13
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Golden Gate* Race 6 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT
KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 4 6 1 probability 80%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.43 0.00 10.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.18
#DIV/0! 1 0.00 51 #DIV/0!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 06:46 PM
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#14
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Santa Anita* Race 7 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT
KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 8 9 3 probability 78%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 37
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
8 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 8
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 9
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
0.00 0.00 10.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.04 13.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.54
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-28-2021, 08:09 PM
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#15
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Golden Gate* Race 9 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT
KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 8 4 3 probability 63%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 37
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 2
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 3
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 4
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 5
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 6
7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 7
8 ---- ---- ---- 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 8
9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 9
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 10
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 11
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 12
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 13
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 14
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 15
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 16
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.71
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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