Derby Hopefuls - Slow Beyers

[Tom]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Gosh, could it possibly be that Beyer numbers give no consideration to the female side of the horse's breeding, or to their actual inherited stamina?

Imagine that!

FWIW, on a chart tracking 50 derby stats, BSF takes up 1 column. Why anyone would 'cap a classic distance race depending on BSFs is beyond me.

Remind me again what beyer's batting average picking the KY Derby winner for last 20 year is...

Horses like Justify, American Pharoah, etc. aren't exactly hard to figure out...if you want to make 80 cents or so.

Of course a speed figure win not consider anything about breeding at all. That would be pretty stupid.

And his picking has nothing to do with his numbers. He does not just play the top Beyer.

A better question would how have the number performed over the years, when used by some who know how to use a speed figure.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Tom

Here is what he gave the 4 consecutive 8.5F stakes Saturday at OP.

Midnight Bisou 01:42.7 99
Long Range Toddy 01:42.5 95
Rated R Superstar 01:42.7 93
Omaha Beach 01:42.4 96

Logically, one would think the faster time at the same distance would receive the higher figure. A track shouldn't change too much in an hour or two barring inclement weather.

Beyer does take into account historical performance as well as the relative performance of other runners in the field per his discussion on his figure for Bolt D'Oro in the FrontRunner. This seems logical as well, however, will result in bad figures when perceived rare and unusual events do occur (e.g. the top four really do run career bests by significant margin). I emphasize perceived as I can only take his experience at face value since I have yet to see evidence supporting his thoughts in the article.

Fortunately, we have Brisnet, Equibase, TimeformUS, ThoroGgraph, etc. in addition to our eyes, experience, and the clock itself to support or contrast that one data point. I'd argue a handicapper should look a speed figure as a potential range; s=s (+/-) e, where s is the published figure and e is the potential error.

[Tom]

As it turns out, he only broke out the Midnight Biso race. Probably due to the slow pace. All the routes race before and after were the same variant.
This is exactly what I do not want my figue to do - I want speed, in reality, only. Even with TFUS figs, I use the speed rating rather than the performance figure most of the time.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

As it turns out, he only broke out the Midnight Biso race. Probably due to the slow pace. All the routes race before and after were the same variant.
This is exactly what I do not want my figue to do - I want speed, in reality, only. Even with TFUS figs, I use the speed rating rather than the performance figure most of the time.

Yeah, imo it's a terrible idea to break out figures unless you are quite certain the track speed changed or there was a wind/run up issue.

If it was a pace issue, if Beyer makes a subjective pace adjustment, every serious handicapper is at risk of making the same subjective adjustment ON TOP of the adjustment Beyer made if he doesn't know about it.

For example, Midnight Bisou made a nice close off those very slow fractions. I might consider upgrading her off her actual slow final time, but not the adjusted Beyer figure.

Even worse is that Tapa Tapa Tapa was loose on those slow fractions. If Beyer adjusts the figure upward for the race, he's also adjusting Tapa Tapa Tapa's figure up by the same amount which doesn't make much sense.

[bobphilo]

Beyer says he does not adjust for pace but he does indirectly. If a race's time is out of whack because of a fast or slow pace and he cuts it loose he might think the track speed is changing because he's not considering it may be due to pace.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Afleet

time compares favorably to older horses Midnight Bisou

I got a bet down on Midnight Bisou
didn't pay much - that's okay

she's one of a very few I don't mind betting on with a short price

she always makes an effort. always closes.

Respect

[Thomas Roulston]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Beyers changed after 2009 IMO, comparing them to 2019 is foolhardy. Been discussed here many times.

Assuming you're right, shouldn't the system be made dynamic rather than static, with the addition of a "deflation adjustment" that is the opposite of the "inflation adjustment;" i.e., something that costs $2.75 today would have cost 40 cents 50 years ago?

Of course the differences in Beyers would be nowhere near as massive - yet nonetheless significant.

[Half Smoke]

the Wood yesterday - another slow prep
I don't know the Beyer but it was less than 94
Tacitus final time is 151.23, 1.44 seconds slower than Vino Russo last year who did it 149.79 - and Vino Russo was not any kind of great horse



BTW I'm not using Beyers to cap the Derby
just kind of interesting to see the comparisons



https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[Tom]

Roadster 98

Vekoma 97

Tacitus 97

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

If a race's time is out of whack because of a fast or slow pace and he cuts it loose he might think the track speed is changing because he's not considering it may be due to pace.

Exactly.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

Roadster 98

Vekoma 97

Tacitus 97

It's hard for me to believe all these horses are that weak, but when you look at how lightly raced most of them still are, they are basically still NW2 horses. Those figures are in line for very good NW2 horses. Their best figures are still well ahead of them.

It makes more sense when you think back when to the best 2yos would win multiple stakes and the best 3yos would have 3-4 preps before the Derby. They were more seasoned horses.

[GMB@BP]

Based on the final prep TUS figures it's hard not to take a very strong stance against the Santa Anita Derby.

[Bennie]

Waiting to see what the final TFUS figs are for the races yesterday so I can get in my last futures bets. Have it narrowed down but want to see who is going to be keyed and who is going underneath.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Waiting to see what the final TFUS figs are for the races yesterday so I can get in my last futures bets. Have it narrowed down but want to see who is going to be keyed and who is going underneath.

Wood 118, ble grass 115 sa derby 112

[Bennie]

Thank you GMB. looks like a stab at Tacitus, although the wood has a long non winner streak, By My Standards, and Long Range Toddy, Omaha Beach before the Arkansas with fingers crossed, on top with those and maybe Roadster, Tax and Improbable under.