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Old 03-22-2019, 08:29 PM   #31
davew
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The top 3 in the Withers basically have the same score.


If they ran again in same race, would they all have roughly equal chance of winning?



thx for the updates, and do you have a top 5 or top 10 list for the Derby as of now?
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Old 03-25-2019, 11:43 AM   #32
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Old 03-25-2019, 11:47 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew View Post
The top 3 in the Withers basically have the same score.


If they ran again in same race, would they all have roughly equal chance of winning?



thx for the updates, and do you have a top 5 or top 10 list for the Derby as of now?
Two of the top three from the Withers have run back and not done very well, so I'd say things have changed as often happens with 3yos. Others have run back from the race and run decent figures (basically matching what they ran in the Withers). Tax is going in the Wood Memorial. At this point I think I'm going to view him with some skepticism. I don't like the big gap between races and there is at least some doubt on how legitimate the figure is. It was a tough time to make figures at Aqueduct. Basically everyone has the race quite fast that I've seen, but that doesn't mean it is a great number.
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Old 03-31-2019, 12:08 PM   #34
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Old 04-02-2019, 03:43 PM   #35
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Lots of Red and some Blue paces to consider.

This is shaping up to be a Derby that actually has some big prices, if you can be on the right horse(s), and have some betting luck.

I never like to be 'all-in', but this could be a good Derby.
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Old 04-09-2019, 05:44 PM   #36
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Old 04-09-2019, 07:45 PM   #37
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bovada currently has game winner, improbable, and roadster as co 7-1 favorites. interestingly, the favorite for the breeders cup classic is game winner at 8-1
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:13 PM   #38
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Old 04-16-2019, 09:13 AM   #39
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As always, thanks CJ.
Invaluable information every year!
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Old 04-17-2019, 10:49 AM   #40
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I`m so mixed up I keep changing my mind on horses. I may box the riders instead of the horses
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Old 04-20-2019, 12:55 AM   #41
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what are you supposed to do with a TimeForm pace projector that shows the top 5 presences are all horses who don't want the lead.

Now I'm even more confused lol.

Should be a great betting Derby this year.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:27 PM   #42
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There was a mention on Steve Byk today about Timeform's equalized fractional times for all of the prep races. Where can we find those?
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Old 04-26-2019, 12:22 AM   #43
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There was a mention on Steve Byk today about Timeform's equalized fractional times for all of the prep races. Where can we find those?
They are available in our PPs and charts. I've listed the last fractions in the fnal fractions thread here.
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Old 04-27-2019, 06:34 AM   #44
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Thanks CJ for both your generosity and insight.
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Old 04-30-2019, 12:24 PM   #45
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TFUS Pace Projector for Derby. I know that it may be a lot to ask CJ, but, (caveat) if you don't mind, can you please share the Pace Projector for this year's Derby with us? I am dying to see what you have and what it may look like with this humongous field for the Derby.
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