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Old 03-24-2019, 04:22 PM   #31
cj
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Wow!
I owe them an apology for another post elsewhere!

Was it really that much faster than the Older Stake?
It was, the older horse race is the mind boggling one. All the other races (routes and sprints) line up quite well.
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Old 03-24-2019, 11:08 PM   #32
HalvOnHorseracing
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For sprints I would would use an adjusted number for the half mile and the finish. For routes I used the adjusted 3/4 and finish times. Those were numbers I calculated myself using historical data. I updated it every two years. I found that the numbers changed very little.

I think the quarter mile time is not worth much UNLESS the track is playing to speed to the point where even faint hearted claimers are hanging on. Then I want to know which horses are likely to be on or near the lead. However, I do use the fraction from the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/8 mile pole. So a race would look like.

Horse A: :45.3 1:11.0
Horse B: :45.1 1:10.4
Horse C: :46.0 1:11.0

Horse B may turn out the favorite, but A is just as good and B is close so I may just use the horse with the highest odds, or bet some exacta combinations. What you are really looking for in a race is a horse that looks like a 1:12 but is actually a 1:11 after adjustments. Of course you can adjust all the times to numbers like you see with Beyers or Timeform.

I've mentioned before that I spent hundreds of hours calculating variants by class and distance. I just don't have the time or motivation to do it anymore, so I rely on Timeform. I've tried Sartin and Thorograph (not Ragozin). I found that Sartin took a lot of time in comparison to using times you've already adjusted. Thorograph always stayed a little mysterious for me. It had plenty of good data, but I found myself beset by the "paralysis of analysis." I'd see that one horse had great breeding but the trainer was ice cold. I couldn't adapt. Of course, it was also $25 a day, which was a lot if you didn't really didn't have a good grip on how to maximize what Thorograoh provided. Don't get me wrong. I have total respect for people who use Thorograph or Ragozin and l'm not putting them down at all. Those sheets just weren't for me.

I wish I could re-live the old days with the money I have today! LOL
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