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04-21-2019, 07:59 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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By My Standards
Im pretty much dismissing this one and consider him just a General Quarters or Java's War who comes outta nowhere wins a prep then in hardly heard from again. Might use him defensively in a couple tix but that abouts it
Agree or disagree?
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04-21-2019, 08:58 AM
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#2
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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I was thinking bottom of exotics. I mean, he is 100% ITM, so I won't ignore that. And there are so many E/Ps in the race. Something is going to happen up front, intentional or not. Is any contender going to do the Palace Malice experiment?
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Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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04-21-2019, 06:08 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Im pretty much dismissing this one and consider him just a General Quarters or Java's War who comes outta nowhere wins a prep then in hardly heard from again. Might use him defensively in a couple tix but that abouts it
Agree or disagree?
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Don't waste a dime on him! He can't even run 5th to close out the super hi five.
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04-22-2019, 08:02 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Worst sire and dam sire AWD in the contest. If this thing gets 10F then I need to seriously reevaluate my handicapping skill.
I still don't buy the hand time of his race which helped inflate the speed figures. I highly doubt he's about 10 lengths faster than Core Beliefs who was about 10 lengths slower than Justify. He's your next Triple Crown winner using the six degrees of Kevin Bacon angle.
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04-22-2019, 09:22 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Ed DeRosa said By My Standards is his "number 1"... What the hell? lol
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04-22-2019, 09:27 AM
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#6
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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I like him a lot.
The horse, not Ed.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 04-22-2019 at 09:28 AM.
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04-22-2019, 10:04 AM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Goldencents
10F
Huge pass.
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04-22-2019, 10:16 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Goldencents
10F
Huge pass.
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My exact thought process in the Louisiana Derby...
“Goldencents” “9F” “No Way”
Wins and pays $47 “doh”
I don’t claim to know a whole lot about breeding influences but I was just looking at his pedigree and it seems to me he has plenty of classic stamina influences 3/4 generations back, storm cat line on top out of Goldencents gives him sprint/tactical speed.
Another poster on here mentioned that he thinks having these sprint influences can sometimes give horses a greater ability to make their one big “kick” or “move” in the stretch which certainly held true for BMS in his last race.
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04-22-2019, 10:28 AM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
My exact thought process in the Louisiana Derby...
“Goldencents” “9F” “No Way”
Wins and pays $47 “doh”
I don’t claim to know a whole lot about breeding influences but I was just looking at his pedigree and it seems to me he has plenty of classic stamina influences 3/4 generations back, storm cat line on top out of Goldencents gives him sprint/tactical speed.
Another poster on here mentioned that he thinks having these sprint influences can sometimes give horses a greater ability to make their one big “kick” or “move” in the stretch which certainly held true for BMS in his last race.
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Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby at 9F. Arguably the worst Santa Anita Derby field this century.
GC then ran 17th and 5th in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness respectively. They never ran him further than a mile ever again.
I think the LAD was a decent field, but there are 7 or 8 or more horses that are better than anything BMS has faced before.
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04-22-2019, 11:10 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Comparing his points race to his previous two starts doesn't compute unless you think he's Arrogate, got a milkshake, or the timer wasn't accurate. I realize a horse can improve quickly this time of year however this guy has seven panel bloodlines and supposedly improved by perhaps more than two seconds from his 2/26 run while adding a half panel. He went 1:45.0 at 8.5F to 1:49.4 in 9F. A very solid horse might run that final half in about 6.4 which would extrapolate his previous run to 151.4 which would be on par with the Nola Handicap run about an hour previous.
Looking at it a different way, Sueno finished five back and followed up finishing three back in the Lexington. Country House finished 6+ back and followed up finishing 6+ back in the Ark.
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04-22-2019, 12:04 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby at 9F. Arguably the worst Santa Anita Derby field this century.
GC then ran 17th and 5th in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness respectively. They never ran him further than a mile ever again.
I think the LAD was a decent field, but there are 7 or 8 or more horses that are better than anything BMS has faced before.
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I’ve only been following racing for about 3 years now so I actually didn’t realize GC had won the SA Derby. And I don’t disagree that he will be facing much better in this race, I just think he is very usable underneath in exotics.
His last race was visually impressive imo and it looks like he has been working well. He has even ran a decent race over the CD surface which is another plus in my book.
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04-22-2019, 12:49 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Ed DeRosa said By My Standards is his "number 1"... What the hell? lol
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DeRosa must have smoked an 8 ball before he said that.
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04-22-2019, 01:23 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 44
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I would love to play him but a Goldencents at 10F?????
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04-22-2019, 02:31 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla
I would love to play him but a Goldencents at 10F?????
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I cannot even find a start at 10F by one of his progeny. One recently ran at Meydan at 1 3/16 and finished 10th. BMS and Mr. Money appear to be the only two to attempt 9F on American soil. BMS is his leading horse then it's a cliff to Bano Solo (who?). That's too small a sample size to draw any valid conclusion. There is a larger sample size for Into Mischief albeit still not statistically large. Harlan's Holiday gives a statistically large sample size and suggests a 10F win is not impossible but nearly all of the few progeny wins were on the grass.
I don't see it however there's worse bombers to play in this Derby renewal.
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04-22-2019, 03:04 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dballard125
DeRosa must have smoked an 8 ball before he said that.
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well he did have Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon as his top 2 last year if i remember correctly so there's that...
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