Lost Treasure - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Cholly · 11-01-2018, 02:33 PM

When he runs Saturday in the BC Turf Sprint, it will be his 3rd race in 19 days (with a cross Atlantic flight thrown in), his 5th race in 28 days (including a flight from Ireland to France & back), his 8th race 94 days.

Is this the way most European trainers train? Is this the norm for Aidan O'Brien? Has he not gotten around to reading Chad Brown's book?

In this race he'll be FT Lasix ON, blinkers OFF, & shedding 13# from two of his last three imposts, 7# from the other. Is this part of some plan or just throwing a pile of shit at a wall and hoping something sticks?

cj · 11-01-2018, 02:52 PM

Can't give out too many of these but I'll use him to give a sample of Jamie Lynch's analysis of the European shippers from the TimeformUS Breeders' Cup package:

Quote:

TURF SPRINT
LOST TREASURE style: hold him up, then hope for the best

A puzzle wrapped inside an enigma. The downside is that he’s found a way out of winning races that really ought to have been beneath him the last twice, let down by his attitude. The upside is that, from out of the blue, he probably would have won the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye (Havana Grey back in eighth) earlier in October but for running into the back of the principals in the finish having built up a remarkable head of steam.

So it’s a simple case of talent versus temperament, as he has plenty of both, up to him on the day whether we get Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde. He’ll be unleashed up the straight, from the back, and the faster they go the more likely he is to put his best foot forward. He’s impossible to predict, but he’s impossible to leave out of combinations, such is the size of his engine.

ARAZI91 · 11-01-2018, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cholly

When he runs Saturday in the BC Turf Sprint, it will be his 3rd race in 19 days (with a cross Atlantic flight thrown in), his 5th race in 28 days (including a flight from Ireland to France & back), his 8th race 94 days.

Is this the way most European trainers train? Is this the norm for Aidan O'Brien? Has he not gotten around to reading Chad Brown's book?

In this race he'll be FT Lasix ON, blinkers OFF, & shedding 13# from two of his last three imposts, 7# from the other. Is this part of some plan or just throwing a pile of shit at a wall and hoping something sticks?

While he does campaign certain horses like this it's certainly not the norm for AOB but i would think compared to US trainers , the Euros would have higher run frequencies. To give some idea around O'Brien i've attached his runners since 2011 broken down by number of runs within 90 days for all runners and also only his Stakes runners along with % of totals etc. Coolmore have expanded that much that this year over half of ALL AOB's runners were in Group/Listed races and because of those numbers i noticed an increase in horses shipped abroad(inc UK) and also multi-entries - the amount of times he ran 3 or more runners in a race this season was his highest ever.

ARAZI91 · 11-01-2018, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Can't give out too many of these but I'll use him to give a sample of Jamie Lynch's analysis of the European shippers from the TimeformUS Breeders' Cup package:

Thanks for sharing that CJ - IMO Jamie Lynch is one of the UK's best racing writers. Don't always agree with him , but certainly enjoy his well written articles.

Afleet · 11-01-2018, 04:40 PM

will be playing this one

ARAZI91 · 11-01-2018, 04:57 PM

The Blinkers Off angle is slightly off-putting for a 20%+ trainer such as O'Brien.
Since 2008 he has ran 70 horses with Blinkers off from last run , with only 9 winning for just under 13% - using all headgear last run and now off for current race he is 24 from 183 runs for 13%. He has never had a G1 winner with this from 16 runs with only 2 placed.

Afleet · 11-01-2018, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARAZI91

The Blinkers Off angle is slightly off-putting for a 20%+ trainer such as O'Brien.
Since 2008 he has ran 70 horses with Blinkers off from last run , with only 9 winning for just under 13% - using all headgear last run and now off for current race he is 24 from 183 runs for 13%. He has never had a G1 winner with this from 16 runs with only 2 placed.

he lost to a 2 y/o 3 back, giving a ton of weight though in that race

Valuist · 11-01-2018, 06:34 PM

He put an impressive stretch run in the Longchamp race. Also like the switch to Ryan Moore. But his best race was on firm, which he won't get on Saturday. He also will be running for the EIGHTH time in 69 days.

ARAZI91 · 11-01-2018, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afleet

he lost to a 2 y/o 3 back, giving a ton of weight though in that race

The Longchamp run? thought it was a very good effort as the first four raced much closer to the pace that day , was 100-1 , started slowly and was out the back. Made up good ground from just after the 2f pole and was only beaten just over a length at the death. Longchamp's 5f track not ideal for those tactics. 2yo's get a big weight advantage in that race and it's one of only a few races open to 2 & 3yo + horses. Not many 2yos take up the challenge. The 2yo in question runs in Juve Turf sprint.

ARAZI91 · 11-01-2018, 06:55 PM

Think it's a big ask for the win - he' s got to be ridden late as he stops when he hits the front which is never a good sign although he has the right man on board. Coolmore were talking about trying to win a "good Handicap" with him only back in August which is a few class rungs below this. Think the Longchamp run must have changed their minds and if AOB thinks there is any sniff of place money he runs them.

Valuist · 11-01-2018, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARAZI91

The Longchamp run? thought it was a very good effort as the first four raced much closer to the pace that day , was 100-1 , started slowly and was out the back. Made up good ground from just after the 2f pole and was only beaten just over a length at the death. Longchamp's 5f track not ideal for those tactics. 2yo's get a big weight advantage in that race and it's one of only a few races open to 2 & 3yo + horses. Not many 2yos take up the challenge. The 2yo in question runs in Juve Turf sprint.

And that 2 year old has a big shot in the Juvy Turf Sprint.

ARAZI91 · 11-01-2018, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

And that 2 year old has a big shot in the Juvy Turf Sprint.

100% Agree Big time!! - not much exposure but trainer Archie Watson is an up and comer who has had a phenomenal season. Very tough colt to be in there fighting against the likes of Battash & co in Paris.Has ran some very fast races and is only 6-7lbs below the likes of Quorto and Too Darn Hot in the UK.

fiznow · 11-02-2018, 05:07 PM

The morning line of 20-1 for Lost Treasure is much too high imo.

The same about the 2nd European horse in the race Havana Grey, also 20-1.
Anyway, both look like hudge longshots and are worth a bet.