By My Standards - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

gov135 · 04-14-2019, 06:15 PM

Can use a little help.... kinda at that point of handicapping the derby where I have watched all preps multiple times and starting to cross off those I do not like.... the simple process of getting down to the six or seven to fill out the exotics.... and I am stumbling on this one.

I don’t love the trainer, the competition in the Louisiana Derby, or his pedigree for the last furlong. But the more I watch his last race, the more I think he can factor in the tri or the super. I do like his time on his last furlong and the fact that he split horses with ease. Perhaps I am thinking too hard - and this horse could bounce. But if he moves forward and the distance is not too much - this could be the 20 plus to one play that makes the exotics pay.

Thoughts are appreciated.

SkunkApe · 04-14-2019, 06:18 PM

I’m grappling with similar thoughts.

Lemon Drop Husker · 04-14-2019, 06:21 PM

The race is 3 weeks away.

Post positions and actual entries haven't even been drawn.

Wait till about May 1st and 2nd to really start honing in on picking any kind of winners, much less exotics in the Derby.

zico20 · 04-14-2019, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gov135

Can use a little help.... kinda at that point of handicapping the derby where I have watched all preps multiple times and starting to cross off those I do not like.... the simple process of getting down to the six or seven to fill out the exotics.... and I am stumbling on this one.

I don’t love the trainer, the competition in the Louisiana Derby, or his pedigree for the last furlong. But the more I watch his last race, the more I think he can factor in the tri or the super. I do like his time on his last furlong and the fact that he split horses with ease. Perhaps I am thinking too hard - and this horse could bounce. But if he moves forward and the distance is not too much - this could be the 20 plus to one play that makes the exotics pay.

Thoughts are appreciated.

He would have to improve 10 lengths off of his Louisiana Derby win to beat any of the big four. Why? Baffert is a much better trainer and will have his horses primed for the Derby, meaning they will also improve. So this won't happen, your only hope is for any of the big four to get into major trouble, which is possible in a 20 horse field. In a six horse race he has no shot against any of them. You can always bet the super hi five and put him in the 4th and 5th spots. It will pay much better.

Afleet · 04-14-2019, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

He would have to improve 10 lengths off of his Louisiana Derby win to beat any of the big four. Why? Baffert is a much better trainer and will have his horses primed for the Derby, meaning they will also improve. So this won't happen, your only hope is for any of the big four to get into major trouble, which is possible in a 20 horse field. In a six horse race he has no shot against any of them. You can always bet the super hi five and put him in the 4th and 5th spots. It will pay much better.

that super high 5 bet is very difficult to win-think I have hit it once

f2tornado · 04-14-2019, 10:21 PM

I'll let a Harlan's Holiday line horse beat me at 10F. If I use a horse from the LA Derby underneath it will be Spinoff and that would only be if he retains JV or other solid jock.

Robert Fischer · 04-14-2019, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gov135

Can use a little help.... kinda at that point of handicapping the derby where I have watched all preps multiple times and starting to cross off those I do not like.... the simple process of getting down to the six or seven to fill out the exotics.... and I am stumbling on this one.

I don’t love the trainer, the competition in the Louisiana Derby, or his pedigree for the last furlong. But the more I watch his last race, the more I think he can factor in the tri or the super. I do like his time on his last furlong and the fact that he split horses with ease. Perhaps I am thinking too hard - and this horse could bounce. But if he moves forward and the distance is not too much - this could be the 20 plus to one play that makes the exotics pay.

Thoughts are appreciated.

Thought is 'trust your gut'. I'm not gonna talk you off a long shot.

clicknow · 04-15-2019, 12:17 AM

By My Standards has a few good things and a few bad things. He ran his best speed fig at 9F. He started racing at end of 2018 instead of before summer. He came 2nd in a sprint at CDX as a maiden, so he's been on that track and didn't hate it. He's got a decent dosage index 3.00 and his sire side looks pretty decent. I just don't see a whole lot of stamina on his female side and he's not *real* speedy, so even though he has a nice rally style I don't know if he will get to stretch fast enough to use it against those who will already be way ahead of him. This is the problem with mid-pack type horses, which he is. I sense he is more of a G2 or G3 level horse than a G1 level. Lets just say there are many others I would completely toss before him though. For now, I would stick with him and see how he works at CDX, etc.

tjfla · 04-15-2019, 10:28 AM

What is up with all the By My Standards love? ALL the pros are going crazy over him-I like Spinoff more myself out of the LA Derby

Derosa has him #1

PowerUpPaynter · 04-15-2019, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla

What is up with all the By My Standards love? ALL the pros are going crazy over him-I like Spinoff more myself out of the LA Derby

Derosa has him #1

Wasnt Derosa in love with Magnum Moon last year?... Did Magnum Moon even finish last years derby yet? I think he is still coming around the turn.

zico20 · 04-15-2019, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Wasnt Derosa in love with Magnum Moon last year?... Did Magnum Moon even finish last years derby yet? I think he is still coming around the turn.

Thanks for the laughs!

PowerUpPaynter · 04-15-2019, 09:33 PM

and i think his other horse was Mendelssohn, pretty sure... thats just funny... cause its true

clicknow · 04-15-2019, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

He would have to improve 10 lengths off of his Louisiana Derby win to beat any of the big four.

At this time of year, anything is possible given the age of these horses.

I remember my friends chiding me in the ARK Derby when I put $$ on Creator who ran against Baffert & Pletcher horses.

letswastemoney · 04-16-2019, 08:54 PM

For what it's worth, By My Standards' dam A Jealous Woman was mostly a turf miler, but she did manage to pick up one nine-furlong win.

Most people only look at the topside pedigree.

burnsy · 04-16-2019, 09:33 PM

Visually, he is a beast. Big guy with a long stride. Heres a recent work. I don't like him that much but I don't know if I'd totally dismiss him at a bomb price either as there are only three horses that have been winning consistently. Heres a recent breeze, he doesn't look like chop liver either, but who knows about 10 furlongs. Did this breeze like a walk around the block.