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Old 08-10-2018, 05:11 PM   #1
Tom
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Saratoga Race 8

is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.

Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.

Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.

Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:58 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.

Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.

Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.

Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
Good question. Would also like to see the printout/odds-data from anyone who has those.

I didn't personally notice the either way.

I can see that on the replay the (word was out that the barn run by Brown's former assistant had a runner today in the ) moved from 9/2 to 4/1 entering the gate, and then was flashed as 5/2 in the graphic as they hit the stretch (apparently 2.7-1 from final chart odds). Jorge Abreu is a class act and he went out on his own after working for Chad Brown. It's great to see him working with some of these horses that Brown recently had, and some of the same owners, and sometimes squaring-off against his former boss in the same races. Personally passed the race, but that would be interesting if the had a major cancel because of the break (as well as seeing how much money shifted to on a lesser note).
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:38 PM   #3
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Today, race 2, the gets hammered to 4-5 late, never lifts a foot - not in contention at any point in the race. Off the board.
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Old 08-11-2018, 03:54 PM   #4
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Question

would be cool if some of the guys here with odds data could post



Race 6 today - WHY the heck did the DERBY DATE drop in odds to 6/1?? I mean, I know he had a dream break on top of the field, and subsequently every chance to win, but we can't the break right? Who the heck pounded him late at the 'last second' before the gates opened? You had several interesting horses in there and the should have been 15/1.
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Old 08-11-2018, 04:14 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
would be cool if some of the guys here with odds data could post



Race 6 today - WHY the heck did the DERBY DATE drop in odds to 6/1?? I mean, I know he had a dream break on top of the field, and subsequently every chance to win, but we can't the break right? Who the heck pounded him late at the 'last second' before the gates opened? You had several interesting horses in there and the should have been 15/1.
Even though I played the horse, the drop surprised me also. I was thinking 8 - 10-1, not 6-1.
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Old 08-11-2018, 04:21 PM   #6
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Boy they timed that one perfectly.
He was 8/1 as they were nearing the gate
^Went 'UP' to 9/1 as they loaded.

then the odds graphic drops off the replay video.

At the break he was 7/1 and then 6/1 mid-race.

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Even though I played the horse, the drop surprised me also. I was thinking 8 - 10-1, not 6-1.
I mean yea, he was a 'cool' play. Coach FTS and son of cool warrior Will Take Charge

I can see using or throwing a few bucks on a gut feeling. I was very surprised that it was a massive odds-impacting wager, and the timing of the odds displayed graphics was at best an awkward appearing coincidence.
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Old 08-11-2018, 04:35 PM   #7
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I can see using or throwing a few bucks on a gut feeling. I was very surprised that it was a massive odds-impacting wager, and the timing of the odds displayed graphics was at best an awkward appearing coincidence.
And in this game, I firmly believe in "coincidence's".
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Old 08-11-2018, 04:37 PM   #8
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FWIW, the #6 was about 9-2 on my line.

And yes, I waited until I saw the first horse loaded into the gate before pulling the trigger.

But given the size of the pools at SAR - somehow I doubt my meager tickets were responsible for the odds drop. (More likely it was someone who bets at least 20X more than me.)

Also, FWIW, I didn't think he was getting a dream trip. In order for the horse to win the race outright I thought the best chance involved Saez keeping him a few paths off the rail. (Which didn't happen.)




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Old 08-11-2018, 07:14 PM   #9
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FWIW, the #6 was about 9-2 on my line.
I don't want anyone to think I pulled 9-2 out of thin air.

Below is what I have in my database for 7f dirt races at SAR going back to 2012.

The first table has columns for W-P-S and displays what would have happened if the player had made a $2.00 W-P-S bet on every starter in the sample:

Code:
query start:         8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
query end:           8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
elapsed time:        0 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_NYRA_DOMAIN.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='SAR' 
      AND INTSURFACE=1 
      AND DIST = 1540 

      AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2012# 
      AND [DATE] <= #08-10-2018# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals     3275.40       3258.00       3291.30
Bet              -4122.00      -4122.00      -4122.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -846.60       -864.00       -830.70

Wins                  262           516           771
Plays                2061          2061          2061
PCT                 .1271         .2504         .3741

ROI                0.7946        0.7904        0.7985
Avg Mut             12.50          6.31          4.27

The next table shows the above sample broken out by rank for a factor in JCapper called EarlyConsensus:

Code:
By: SQL-F09 Rank (EarlyConsensus)

Rank       P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1      109.30     514.00     1.2126      55     257   .2140     1.6835      11.33  
 2      -82.90     520.00     0.8406      47     260   .1808     1.4220       9.30  
 3      119.00     580.00     1.2052      41     290   .1414     1.1121      17.05  
 4        8.80     566.00     1.0155      39     283   .1378     1.0841      14.74  
 5     -240.60     506.00     0.5245      32     253   .1265     0.9950       8.29  
 6     -286.70     462.00     0.3794      19     231   .0823     0.6470       9.23  
 7     -134.40     366.00     0.6328      17     183   .0929     0.7308      13.62  
 8     -116.20     260.00     0.5531       7     130   .0538     0.4236      20.54  
 9     -128.00     166.00     0.2289       3      83   .0361     0.2843      12.67  
10      -63.40      92.00     0.3109       1      46   .0217     0.1710      28.60  
11      -46.00      46.00     0.0000       0      23   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
12      -28.00      28.00     0.0000       0      14   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
13      -12.00      12.00     0.0000       0       6   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
14       54.50       4.00    14.6250       1       2   .5000     3.9332      58.50

Imo, 7f is one of those distances where most players have a tendency to think early speed is suspect.

But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.

I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.

Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --

Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:

I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.

But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.

I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,


-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 08-11-2018 at 07:27 PM.
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Old 08-14-2018, 02:09 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.

Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.

Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.

Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.

Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:57 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by SG4 View Post
Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it

CJ posted some detailed 'flash-by-flash' timestamped tote info (tweeted by Ed Derosa /twitter) after that brazen Firenze Fire betting coup.

I don't know where to find that type of tote data, or I would check and post the 's data, as well as some of the others in this thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
I don't want anyone to think I pulled 9-2 out of thin air.

Below is what I have in my database for 7f dirt races at SAR going back to 2012.

The first table has columns for W-P-S and displays what would have happened if the player had made a $2.00 W-P-S bet on every starter in the sample:

Code:
query start:         8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
query end:           8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
elapsed time:        0 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_NYRA_DOMAIN.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='SAR' 
      AND INTSURFACE=1 
      AND DIST = 1540 

      AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2012# 
      AND [DATE] <= #08-10-2018# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals     3275.40       3258.00       3291.30
Bet              -4122.00      -4122.00      -4122.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -846.60       -864.00       -830.70

Wins                  262           516           771
Plays                2061          2061          2061
PCT                 .1271         .2504         .3741

ROI                0.7946        0.7904        0.7985
Avg Mut             12.50          6.31          4.27

The next table shows the above sample broken out by rank for a factor in JCapper called EarlyConsensus:

Code:
By: SQL-F09 Rank (EarlyConsensus)

Rank       P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1      109.30     514.00     1.2126      55     257   .2140     1.6835      11.33  
 2      -82.90     520.00     0.8406      47     260   .1808     1.4220       9.30  
 3      119.00     580.00     1.2052      41     290   .1414     1.1121      17.05  
 4        8.80     566.00     1.0155      39     283   .1378     1.0841      14.74  
 5     -240.60     506.00     0.5245      32     253   .1265     0.9950       8.29  
 6     -286.70     462.00     0.3794      19     231   .0823     0.6470       9.23  
 7     -134.40     366.00     0.6328      17     183   .0929     0.7308      13.62  
 8     -116.20     260.00     0.5531       7     130   .0538     0.4236      20.54  
 9     -128.00     166.00     0.2289       3      83   .0361     0.2843      12.67  
10      -63.40      92.00     0.3109       1      46   .0217     0.1710      28.60  
11      -46.00      46.00     0.0000       0      23   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
12      -28.00      28.00     0.0000       0      14   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
13      -12.00      12.00     0.0000       0       6   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
14       54.50       4.00    14.6250       1       2   .5000     3.9332      58.50

Imo, 7f is one of those distances where most players have a tendency to think early speed is suspect.

But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.

I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.

Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --

Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:

I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.

But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.

I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,


-jp

.
That is awesome stuff. I give you credit for valuing the early speed from that horse. A lot of players thought he may well make the lead, but didn't think he was enough horse to contend. 9-2 is really smart. I think maybe 8/1(my personal assignment, and I would assume that he'd be >10/1 in the public's eye in that field that featured some prospects) or so would have been my guess. If I could have bet after that dream-break 3/1 - 7/2.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-14-2018 at 04:10 PM.
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:54 AM   #12
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Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
hes wrong ,i had a bet on the race and the horse was always 2-1.
the guy seems to exaggerate quite a bit.
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Old 08-15-2018, 11:11 AM   #13
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Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash?
Yeah, that is just exaggeration.
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:15 PM   #14
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it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:22 PM   #15
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it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
He thought he saw it. Flip a coin.

Instead of personal attacks, we should have access to the tote data, and look at the flash-by-flash prices.
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