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01-08-2013, 12:36 PM
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#16
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Define: skill, luck.
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How about this: Skill is the ability to enable good luck to happen, while overcoming the happenings of bad luck, long term. I don't think "luck" needs to be defined. Maybe you do?
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01-08-2013, 12:40 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,815
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Quote attributed to Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, and Tom Watson depending on the source:
"The more I practice, the luckier I get."
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"I'd rather be lucky than good."
Lefty Gomez
"4-time 20-game winner with NY Yankees; holds World Series record for most wins (6) without a defeat; pitched on 5 world championship clubs in 1930s
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01-08-2013, 01:17 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 1,068
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
This is what I call a BOLD STATEMENT
What makes you to believe so?
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If you do this one weekend a month you can use luck. When you do this sixty hours a week for years, the things that happen are just happenings. I have lost because of geese and had races declared no contest because rabbits caused a wreck at the top of the stretch. They are just things that happen in a career. Some good, some bad. You turn the page and prepare for the next race. If Luck was a major factor, you would not have to work so hard.
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01-08-2013, 01:21 PM
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#19
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Screw PC
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Quote attributed to Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, and Tom Watson depending on the source:
"The more I practice, the luckier I get."
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Yes, and, another golfing notable said a hole in one was luck but leaving the ball two feet from the pin was skill -- or words to that effect.
But, I digress. What appears to be luck for some one could actually be skill. How do you show it was not luck?
__________________
Truth sounds like hate to those who hate truth.
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01-08-2013, 01:26 PM
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#20
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Yes, and, another golfing notable said a hole in one was luck but leaving the ball two feet from the pin was skill -- or words to that effect.
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Thoroughly agree, the ability to put the ball close to the hole, consistently, enables the hole in one to happen. The fact that the hole in one happens, is pretty much luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
But, I digress. What appears to be luck for some one could actually be skill. How do you show it was not luck?
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You show it isn't a result of luck, with your bottom line, over time.
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01-08-2013, 03:33 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 946
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Define: skill, luck.
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Quote attributed to Darrell Royal, legendary UT football coach:
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
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01-08-2013, 08:32 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Thailand
Posts: 599
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Define: skill, luck.
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Reading the book, Tennis player wins mostly with skill whereas, Lotto or roulette is mostly luck dependent. Read the book for more examples and evidence procedure.
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01-09-2013, 11:38 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Thailand
Posts: 599
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Within the context of favorites win at 35-37% of races, it indicates to me (IMO) that this game is significantly more luck than skill. This is not to encourage sloppy handicapping for inspiring handicappers rather to hold our sporting outcome with greater equanimity (win or lose). Extreme example of luck was the results of 2011 Breeder's Cup.
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01-10-2013, 12:56 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 1,068
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkithore
Within the context of favorites win at 35-37% of races, it indicates to me (IMO) that this game is significantly more luck than skill. This is not to encourage sloppy handicapping for inspiring handicappers rather to hold our sporting outcome with greater equanimity (win or lose). Extreme example of luck was the results of 2011 Breeder's Cup.
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So if the game is significantly more luck than skill, if you lose every year do you just have terrible luck ? If you win every year , do you just have a streak of never ending good luck ?
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01-10-2013, 06:22 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Thailand
Posts: 599
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baconswitchfarm
So if the game is significantly more luck than skill, if you lose every year do you just have terrible luck ? If you win every year , do you just have a streak of never ending good luck ?
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You raise some interesting questions. I encourage you to read the book and check for yourself what author's contentions are for other sports, like tennis, basketball, baseball etc. One assertion repeated on this blog from respected bloggers is: one needs a large sample to discern any patterns, systems, models etc. That assertion leads me to believe that our sport is significantly more luck (that is why we need larger sample size). More skilled games do need smaller samples according to author of the book.
For me, this book has many small nuggets that relate to what traps to avoid as I am still a student of this great sport.
Sorry I can not respond to your questions as I have not kept records of my past thirty some years of racing history as I consider myself a recreational handicapper. Enjoyable and enlightening? yes. Profitable? no.
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01-10-2013, 06:33 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Thailand
Posts: 599
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Define: skill, luck.
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"On the skill side of continuum, feedback is clear and accurate, because there is close relationship between cause and effect. Feedback on the luck side of continuum is often misleading because cause and effect are poorly correlated in short run....." There is more to that then the quote I copied. Hope it throws some light on the meaning you seek.
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01-10-2013, 02:01 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
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The game has changed in a way that has narrowed the line between luck and skill...IMO.
It used to be practically impossible for an everyday bettor to show a profit at the end of the year based on luck alone...but that is no longer the case. In this, the age of the super-exotics...anything is possible. A player can hit a monster Pick-6 payoff with a fluky $6 ticket...and declare himself a winner for a lifetime.
But I would have to say that, long term, a player's results will be determined 90% by skill level and 10% by luck.
Luck pays short, unexpected visits...and leaves just as suddenly. Skill is much more dependable...
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Live to play another day.
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01-10-2013, 02:25 PM
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#28
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Screw PC
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The game has changed in a way that has narrowed the line between luck and skill...IMO.
It used to be practically impossible for an everyday bettor to show a profit at the end of the year based on luck alone...but that is no longer the case. In this, the age of the super-exotics...anything is possible. A player can hit a monster Pick-6 payoff with a fluky $6 ticket...and declare himself a winner for a lifetime.
But I would have to say that, long term, a player's results will be determined 90% by skill level and 10% by luck.
Luck pays short, unexpected visits...and leaves just as suddenly. Skill is much more dependable...
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Interesting take on things.
I've always thought that wagering skills were separate from what proceeded whether that be selection oriented or value oriented.
Can I interpret the above scenario of a fluky $6 exotic to mean the luck of throwing together the right ticket outweighs the skill used to handicap the race?
In other words, as you've already stated, the line that used to separate the handicapping from the wagering is now blurred or even possibly eliminated? And, by extension, back in the bad old days when there was only straight wagering, punters were more skillful than lucky, no?
__________________
Truth sounds like hate to those who hate truth.
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01-10-2013, 02:45 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Interesting take on things.
I've always thought that wagering skills were separate from what proceeded whether that be selection oriented or value oriented.
Can I interpret the above scenario of a fluky $6 exotic to mean the luck of throwing together the right ticket outweighs the skill used to handicap the race?
In other words, as you've already stated, the line that used to separate the handicapping from the wagering is now blurred or even possibly eliminated? And, by extension, back in the bad old days when there was only straight wagering, punters were more skillful than lucky, no?
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You've misunderstood me.
I said the line between luck and skill has gotten THINNER...where, once, it was very broad.
And NO...throwing a few dollars on the "right ticket" cannot outway the skill of handicappping the race...mainly because we can never know beforehand which ticket will be the "right ticket".
All I am trying to say is that there are some players walking around with a lot of money in their pockets today...who might not be the "winning players" that they imagine themselves to be. Super-exotics work that way sometimes.
But, as I said...this kind of luck smiles to very few...and even for them, the scenario often has a bad ending.
You can't expect to be lucky for a lifetime...
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Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 01-10-2013 at 02:48 PM.
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01-10-2013, 03:01 PM
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#30
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Screw PC
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,728
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OK, thanks for clarifying.
I guess if some one was walking around thinking their luck would never end that's just another example of the optimist in most horse players.
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