Nate Silver can suck it

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by redshift1

A victory for both rationality and objectivity. As his model is a function of the reliability and validity of the aggregate polls and careful attenuation of the Rasmussen bias. He just won the WSOP for pollsters without ever taking a poll.

.

To all aspiring horesplayers:

There is a very particular kind of science behind Nate’s predictions. He uses what’s called Bayesian modeling, named after the Rev. Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century mathematician.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by nearco

It's so odd to see on a HANDICAPPER's forum, people making predictions with their hearts and not their heads. I would think most people aren't playing horses like that.
Or maybe it's a good think to have people like that in the pari-mutuel pools...

This isn't a handicapper's forum for the most part.

It's a political board with a tiny bit of horse racing mixed in. Most of the smart horse racing people have been run off by the idiots with the high post counts because the owner of the site has shown he prefers quantity over quality.

I'm just glad I didn't spend 10 hours doing something (for no reason) only to be totally wrong. That must really suck.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Most of the smart horse racing people have been run off by the idiots with the high post counts because the owner of the site has shown he prefers quantity over quality.

It's interesting you should state such a thing. You don't know how many emails and PMs I've received over the years telling me YOU'RE one of those idiots who has run people off...not saying I agree with them, just saying what your public perception is with some people who no longer post here.

And yet, I kept you aboard...you'd think you'd be nicer to me...

[Jake]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

Ok, I tried, but you're committed to some sort of hostility. Nevermind...

It's Rick, isn't it? Never was any hostility here, only an effort on my part to actually talk real numbers about the strengths and weaknesses of Silver's methods. Tearing apart his work this last year, I found that he had crafted an approach that overcame some of the unfalsifiablity problems common in probabilistic models. I thought I would share this on Pace's forum, because this is really about prediction markets, which in turn are really just binary wagers/options with given odds. It's where the future of betting is going worldwide these days. Big mistake on my part to even try and discuss that here. I know your background and some of your efforts with machine learning, so I guess I thought you would bring that side to any discussion. I was wrong, and if I seemed overheated at times, my honest apologies. It was just frustrating knowing what the numbers were saying, and also knowing where the biases were in Nate Silver models, and not being able to have an intelligent conversation along those lines about this. Instead it was the partisan and cult nonsense, which isn't part of my game at all. Hey, good luck with any writing in the future. You have a strong knack for it, and a good vibe, whether you take a smoke or not. Regret not being able to have seen your second half posting on Silver, though. Jake

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Uncle Salty

Silver is 50 for 50 on his EC predictions...even FL and VA. A victory for the rationality and objectiveness...

Impressive.
I learned first of his blog in early Sept. via my sister-in-law, who works in the State Dept. - seems he has plenty of followers in Washington.
Have to believe this guy is pretty impartial, too.
Calls it as he sees it with accuracy, evidently.

[A. Pineda]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Impressive.
I learned first of his blog in early Sept. via my sister-in-law, who works in the State Dept. - seems he has plenty of followers in Washington.
Have to believe this guy is pretty impartial, too.
Calls it as he sees it with accuracy, evidently.

He didn't do too badly this time.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Impressive.
I learned first of his blog in early Sept. via my sister-in-law, who works in the State Dept. - seems he has plenty of followers in Washington.
Have to believe this guy is pretty impartial, too.
Calls it as he sees it with accuracy, evidently.

i would love to know how he got Florida right? i got it wrong, i figured the fix would be in, but the fix backfired in this state. i can't believe that people waited for 7 hours to vote for either one of those 2 candidates.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

... i can't believe that people waited for 7 hours to vote for either one of those 2 candidates.

And yet....... you were betting on them?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

And yet....... you were betting on them?

if the price was right i would bet on you too!

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's interesting you should state such a thing. You don't know how many emails and PMs I've received over the years telling me YOU'RE one of those idiots who has run people off...not saying I agree with them, just saying what your public perception is with some people who no longer post here.

And yet, I kept you aboard...you'd think you'd be nicer to me...

Considering how many views some of my threads have generated you would think you would be a little nicer to me.

But hey...like usual you dont refute anything i say (because you cant) but feel the need to pull your power trip. So lame.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Considering how many views some of my threads have generated you would think you would be a little nicer to me.

But hey...like usual you dont refute anything i say (because you cant) but feel the need to pull your power trip. So lame.

I thought I just posted that I WAS being nice to you...you've pushed a lot of people away...one would THINK that would make me NOT be nice to you...

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Considering how many views some of my threads have generated you would think you would be a little nicer to me.

But hey...like usual you dont refute anything i say (because you cant) but feel the need to pull your power trip. So lame.

There is no refuting silliness, so why bother. The composition of the board goes through constant changes, and has been doing that for the past 13 years (except for Tom of course)...people come, people go...there's no real argument to be had either way...you're going to bring up your list of "smart" people who have stopped posting. Others won't agree with everyone on your list. I can pull up the people who have stopped posting because of you, and I know damn well you won't consider any of them "smart." But others will disagree with your assessment.

It's not a productive road to wander down, but then again, that's kind of your shtick at times...

But once again, you've succeeded in getting another thread way off topic. We're all guilty of that...you seem to be extra keen at it though...congrats!

[Tom]

It's a political board with a tiny bit of horse racing mixed in. Most of the smart horse racing people have been run off by the idiots with the high post counts

And yet here you are, crying and whining yet again. Ever the victim.
What kind of a fool does that make you?

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

There is no refuting silliness, so why bother. The composition of the board goes through constant changes, and has been doing that for the past 13 years (except for Tom of course)...people come, people go...there's no real argument to be had either way...you're going to bring up your list of "smart" people who have stopped posting. Others won't agree with everyone on your list. I can pull up the people who have stopped posting because of you, and I know damn well you won't consider any of them "smart." But others will disagree with your assessment.

It's not a productive road to wander down, but then again, that's kind of your shtick at times...

But once again, you've succeeded in getting another thread way off topic. We're all guilty of that...you seem to be extra keen at it though...congrats!

Why so much sarcasm all the time?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

Why so much sarcasm all the time?

I don't see much of any sarcasm in my last reply.