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10-28-2012, 08:16 PM
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#1
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Registered User
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BC Day 1 - trying to simplify the complicated
Friday, Nov. 2, Santa Anita
POST TIMES (ET) BET TYPES
Juvenile Sprint 4:06 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6
Marathon (G2) 4:48 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) 5:28 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Juvenile Fillies (G1) 6:08 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Filly & Mare Turf (G1) 6:48 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Ladies' Classic (G1) 7:30 WPS EX TRI SUPER SP DD Sup Hi 5
With regard to vertical wagering (PK3s), how do each of the races shape up?
Juvenile Sprint: Should come down to three horses - Beholder, Kauai Kate, and Merit Man. Kauai Kate may run Juv Fil. Super Ninety Nine live longshot.
Marathon: Wide open. Likely need to spread here.
Juv. Fillies Turf: Wide open, too. Tough race to fathom.
F+M Turf: Two Euros dominate betting - The Fugue and Ridasiyna. Nahrain and Marketing Mix will get support. Others with definite longshot possibilities.
Ladies' Classic: Royal Delta favorite, if running here. Awesome Feather, Questing, and My Miss Aurelia also with big chances. Take those four.
Not really trying to focus on individual winners here.
Merely looking for the races where a large spread is needed.
Any thoughts?
Good luck!
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10-29-2012, 09:12 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ringkoebing
Posts: 4,342
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
Friday, Nov. 2, Santa Anita
POST TIMES (ET) BET TYPES
Juvenile Sprint 4:06 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6
Marathon (G2) 4:48 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) 5:28 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Juvenile Fillies (G1) 6:08 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Filly & Mare Turf (G1) 6:48 WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Ladies' Classic (G1) 7:30 WPS EX TRI SUPER SP DD Sup Hi 5
With regard to vertical wagering (PK3s), how do each of the races shape up?
Juvenile Sprint: Should come down to three horses - Beholder, Kauai Kate, and Merit Man. Kauai Kate may run Juv Fil. Super Ninety Nine live longshot.
Marathon: Wide open. Likely need to spread here.
Juv. Fillies Turf: Wide open, too. Tough race to fathom.
F+M Turf: Two Euros dominate betting - The Fugue and Ridasiyna. Nahrain and Marketing Mix will get support. Others with definite longshot possibilities.
Ladies' Classic: Royal Delta favorite, if running here. Awesome Feather, Questing, and My Miss Aurelia also with big chances. Take those four.
Not really trying to focus on individual winners here.
Merely looking for the races where a large spread is needed.
Any thoughts?
Good luck!
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I am allocating a significant part of my BC budget to Juv Fillies Turf exotic bets. This race is known for its big superfecta payouts, but this year, with the Lasix ban, it could even get better.
I think I will also do a P3 with the first three races that you mention. They are the most open races on Friday in my opinion.
Finally, I'm also playing the early Pick 5. That's my favourite bet at the moment. The P5 pools should be big on Fri/Sat.
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10-29-2012, 03:09 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 873
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
Friday, Nov. 2, Santa Anita
Juvenile Sprint - (Beholder may be the best single of both days with maybe Super Ninety Nine as a C.Don't like Kauai Kate.Might even be some value trying to beat her vertically.)
Marathon (G2) -I like Atigun and maybe Eldaafer and Worth Repeating as Bs.Going to go out on a limb and toss all the grass horses even if they are best built to go this far.Fame And Glory looks scary on turf form but going to bet it doesn't translate.Also against Not Abroad off career figure.Hoping those two are the two faves(NotAbroad & FameAndGlory)
Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) - I dunno...Kiitten's Point and Sky Lantern?
Juvenile Fillies (G1) - Only thing I know is I'll be against Executive Privilege.Hopefully Beholder runs in the other race.Without her in here and tossing Executive Privilege should open up some nice paying bets.
Filly & Mare Turf (G1) - I agree with you on The Fugue, Nahrain, Ridasiyna but would throw in I'm A Dreamer instead of MM.
Ladies' Classic (G1) - IMO this is the most competitive field both days.I would actually give Royal Delta a shot in the Classic at the right price but this field is just filled with horses that could explode.I wouldn't feel comfortable without having 5 or 6 covered -Royal Delta,Grace Hall,My Miss Aurelia,Awesome Feather,Questing, and maybe even Love And Pride .
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Not locking into anything yet but this is how I see it now based on a fair track.I think it has been overwhelmingly E and E/P type winners though so have to pay close attention
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10-29-2012, 03:13 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 710
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The Juvenile Fillies just got alot tougher. Beholder and Kauai Kate are going in the Juvenile Fillies.
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10-29-2012, 05:37 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 873
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I guess Kauai Kate is after black type but with the defection of Beholder she is a heavy favorite in the sprint.
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10-29-2012, 05:48 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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The Juvenile Sprint may be a very short field now.
Merit Man would be favorite without Beholder, or Kauai Kate, around.
Super Ninety Nine not without a chance.
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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10-30-2012, 06:01 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Love And Pride
Is reportedly training very well, and is a contender for me in the Ladies' Classic.
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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10-31-2012, 01:48 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 710
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
Is reportedly training very well, and is a contender for me in the Ladies' Classic.
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She's gonna have to step up her game a couple of notches to compete for the win.
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10-31-2012, 03:33 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 2,394
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I will be making a sentimental play on Summer of Fun in the Juvenile Filly Turf. She is a from a small stable ( Bona Venture Stables ) that is going to the BC for the 2nd time in a row..last year we had Royal Bonnie in the JFT also. She should make a decent account for herself and at 30-1 ml with Ramon D aboard..will be using in the exotics 
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Those with the best knowledge have the best luck !!!
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11-02-2012, 06:09 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 2,394
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RaceBookJoe
I will be making a sentimental play on Summer of Fun in the Juvenile Filly Turf. She is a from a small stable ( Bona Venture Stables ) that is going to the BC for the 2nd time in a row..last year we had Royal Bonnie in the JFT also. She should make a decent account for herself and at 30-1 ml with Ramon D aboard..will be using in the exotics |
Picked up a nice $19 show price...so happy for BVS. This is close to a David vs Goliath type situation. 
__________________
Those with the best knowledge have the best luck !!!
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11-02-2012, 09:53 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RaceBookJoe
Picked up a nice $19 show price...so happy for BVS. This is close to a David vs Goliath type situation. |
Nice one!
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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