Will Justify get DQ'd?

[burnsy]

Reported some 3 times the limit. That’s some mighty strong weed. This isn’t the horses fault , as usual, it’s the humans . The CHRB has about zero credibility with the public. When something like this.... comes out 18 months after the fact...... you got problems. Big ones! Give me a break already. Then some of these people have the nerve to cry when these groups, journalist and politicians come after the game? It’s been reported that this horse has made some 300 million in fees already. The rights were sold for nearly 60 million.

This kind of conduct....... begs for the black eye the game gets..... great job!

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Will Justify get DQ'd?

Zero chance.


And the stupidity connected with his having needed the SA Derby points to be eligible for the KY Derby is no different than the 6 or 7 other horses who tested positive at the same time theoretically causing a domino effect of DQ's of those who would have inherited wins in N2L or N3L-type situations not then being eligible for subsequent N2L or N3L conditions which they later won.

It will never happen (on any of those counts) and to think or expect that it should simply underscores your own clueless nature more than anything else.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

Zero chance.


And the stupidity connected with his having needed the SA Derby points to be eligible for the KY Derby is no different than the 6 or 7 other horses who tested positive at the same time theoretically causing a domino effect of DQ's of those who would have inherited wins in N2L or N3L-type situations not then being eligible for subsequent N2L or N3L conditions which they later won.

It will never happen (on any of those counts) and to think or expect that it should simply underscores your own clueless nature more than anything else.

It will never happen because horse racing isn't serious about cheating and lacks the guts to do it, not because it necessarily shouldn't happen.

If an investigation reveals the horse was in fact cheating in the Santa Anita Derby, he wasn't eligible to run in Kentucky, period. If track and field discovered someone doping in the US Olympic Trials, they would absolutely strip him or her of a gold medal in the Olympic Games as well. Nobody who cares about cheating would accept your nonwinners of 3 excuse.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It will never happen because horse racing isn't serious about cheating and lacks the guts to do it, not because it necessarily shouldn't happen.

If an investigation reveals the horse was in fact cheating in the Santa Anita Derby, he wasn't eligible to run in Kentucky, period. If track and field discovered someone doping in the US Olympic Trials, they would absolutely strip him or her of a gold medal in the Olympic Games as well. Nobody who cares about cheating would accept your nonwinners of 3 excuse.

Now there is one question why are they not serious about cheating in i think a $12billion a year industry.

[cnollfan]

Originally Posted by jahura2

I'm sure this will be a very unpopular take but I really dont care. These accusations mean nothing to me and have no affect on me or my love of the sport. I dont care if Justify beat a bad bunch of 3 yr olds with an edge or not.

Like many of you I have been involved in this game over 50 years and the most recent news re: Justify just wont alter anything in my world.
I have been betting horses for a lot of years and I am sure I have been beaten by illegally drugged horses and have won races with illegally drugged horses. I wont stop now.

What I do find amazing is the shock portrayed by some people here and the demands for justice. You have to have been living under a rock for over 100 years to not have suspicions about the legalities in all of horse racing. Can you honestly be shocked at Bob Baffert but then turn around and bet the 3rd at Parx or any Navarro run horse at Monmouth?
Yes , I'm naive, stupid or maybe I'm the one who has been living under that rock but I'll continue to do what I love and my small voice wont change a thing.

I agree with jahura2. I don't like Baffert, don't like The Stronach Group, don't like CDI, don't like Gary and Mary West, hate PETA, etc. I don't care what reputations Justify and Maximum Security will end up with. I have no doubt that cheating has gone on since before my time, or that the cheaters are one step ahead of the regulators unless they have the regulators in their pocket as appears to be the case with the CHRB.

But I love horse racing, handicapping, and betting. I will continue to do it as long as I'm on this earth, provided there are enough interesting races and tracks to follow like Oaklawn, Canterbury, Kentucky Downs and even Fonner Park.

[The_Turf_Monster]

I don't know what rules are in place in California to take a horse down following a post race test but if the allegations are proven correct, a big if, I would hope that the rules that were in place are applied. If that means a DQ, so be it

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Reported some 3 times the limit.

I think someone in pharmacology will need to be consulted because at the level that was reported, Justify would have had to consume an unprecedented amount of jimsom-contaminated hay to test at 3x the threshold.

And surely, a contamination of that magnitude would have meant that the CHRB would have put out an immediate and widespread warning to all horsemen on the grounds.........it would be irresponsible not to do so.

I wonder if this was done.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I think someone in pharmacology will need to be consulted because at the level that was reported, Justify would have had to consume an unprecedented amount of jimsom-contaminated hay to test at 3x the threshold.

And surely, a contamination of that magnitude would have meant that the CHRB would have put out an immediate and widespread warning to all horsemen on the grounds.........it would be irresponsible not to do so.

I wonder if this was done.

Yep. And this just goes to show how highly incriminating doing this in secret, in violation of the Brown Act, was. A racing commission that was properly doing its job and found contamination would absolutely want that finding to be public. Let everyone in the sport know that it happened, what was found, and what they have to watch out for. And, of course, to ensure that the contamination doesn't have a performance enhancing effect on any races.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

A racing commission that was properly doing its job and found contamination would absolutely want that finding to be public.

Unless it wasn't a contamination......

Justify tested at 300ng/mL

The threshold in europe is 30ng/mL That would be environmental contamination.
The threshold here is 75ng/mL based on studies of what constitutes environmental contamination in feed.

Putting this here so people have a comparison.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24440440


It would be pretty hard for a horse to eat as much plant material as was in this study.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

your own clueless nature more than anything else.

Your moronic post only underscores that you have not read my position in this thread but based it upon the title asking the board a "question". Learn to read the thread before posting your drivel.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

There would be hell to pay If Hollendorfer had been Justify's trainer.

You are EXACTLY correct. And this is only part of the reason this stinks to high heaven.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Unless it wasn't a contamination......

Justify tested at 300ng/mL

The threshold in europe is 30ng/mL That would be environmental contamination.
The threshold here is 75ng/mL based on studies of what constitutes environmental contamination in feed.

Putting this here so people have a comparison.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24440440


It would be pretty hard for a horse to eat as much plant material as was in this study.

YEA.

Even speaking as an incompetent outsider(I'm talking about myself, relative to this specific testing issue).

It seems Glaringly OBVIOUS that this is medication where

1. DUE DILIGENCE find the 'enhancement-threshold'.
2. 'intent' or contamination possibility should be disregarded
3. any horse testing in the 'enhancement' dosage threshold or higher DQ'd
4. give notice and reasonable time to adapt practices for ruling

Example: Anything over 200ng/ml will result in a DQ (because of the potential to enhance performance, whether by contamination or dosing)


This seems obvious, but there could be more that I don't understand.

Not only am I completely ignorant of much of this issue, When I try to apply basic mental models to the information that does happen to exist publicly, it fails to make any sense to me.

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

1. I want drug testing that is similar to what the sports that have good drug testing have. It won't be perfect, there's no such thing as perfect, but a lot of sports just efficiently and quickly suspend people for serious periods of time for failing drug tests.

(EDIT: And specifically in this case, I want horse racing boards to face punishment if they don't make their rulings in open public hearings, and if someone is going to be let off the hook for a drug test, it should be done in clear view of the public so that there are no sweetheart deals and such actions are supported by the evidence.)

2. I want safe racetracks. My feeling is that synthetic tracks and well-maintained turf courses are safer than dirt, so I'd like to see us go in that direction. It is probably possible as technology matures to design more "dirt-like" synthetics.

3. I want dishonesty in the sport to carry a cost. Dishonesty is very corrosive to a sport that relies on the betting public to finance it. People don't like betting things they don't think are honest. As a result of that, I would like to see the press that regularly covers the sport, such as the industry publications and TVG, to regularly work on exposing wrongdoing in the sport, so that we don't have to get in the situation where we complain that the New York Times was unfair to us.

1) Will probably never come to reality considering the people that run the sport.
2) Will probably never come to fruition considering who owns the tracks.
3) The general public doesn't really care for the sport, so all you are left with is longtime bettors who aren't exactly the cream of the crop.

Final thought, horse racing has always been a sport by the rich for the rich. They might let the masses join them at the track for wagering, but lets face it is the richy riches that have and will always run the sport.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by horsefan2019

1) Will probably never come to reality considering the people that run the sport.
2) Will probably never come to fruition considering who owns the tracks.
3) The general public doesn't really care for the sport, so all you are left with is longtime bettors who aren't exactly the cream of the crop.

Final thought, horse racing has always been a sport by the rich for the rich. They might let the masses join them at the track for wagering, but lets face it is the richy riches that have and will always run the sport.

1. In theory, the drug testing point just requires a statute. That's the easiest. A federal statute, creating a drug testing agency, listing all the substances by name and allowing the drug testing agency to add new ones as necessary, with mandatory long suspensions for positive tests, with review limited to whether the test was actually positive (i.e., no "contamination" defenses) would do it. All you have to do is get Congress' dander up enough to actually do it.

2. We almost got there on the synthetic tracks with the California mandate a few years ago, and I actually think we will eventually get there. The pressure from PETA and other animal rights groups, and the press, will force tracks to shift.

3. Rooting out dishonest people is by far the toughest. In addition to what you say, honestly, gambling enterprises attract dishonest people. It isn't that all gamblers are dishonest- far from it- but if one is the type of person who wants to make money through trickery rather than work and achievement, the world of gambling is incredibly attractive. So gambling enterprises, whether it is poker or horse racing, attract dishonest people for the same basic reason that schools and youth groups attract pedophiles.

And this is where you really have to figure out ways to police the insiders and prevent regulatory capture. Because in theory, the racing commissions and stewards are supposed to be the bulwarks against dishonest people. In practice, well, you saw what happened here.

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

1. In theory, the drug testing point just requires a statute. That's the easiest. A federal statute, creating a drug testing agency, listing all the substances by name and allowing the drug testing agency to add new ones as necessary, with mandatory long suspensions for positive tests, with review limited to whether the test was actually positive (i.e., no "contamination" defenses) would do it. All you have to do is get Congress' dander up enough to actually do it.

2. We almost got there on the synthetic tracks with the California mandate a few years ago, and I actually think we will eventually get there. The pressure from PETA and other animal rights groups, and the press, will force tracks to shift.

3. Rooting out dishonest people is by far the toughest. In addition to what you say, honestly, gambling enterprises attract dishonest people. It isn't that all gamblers are dishonest- far from it- but if one is the type of person who wants to make money through trickery rather than work and achievement, the world of gambling is incredibly attractive. So gambling enterprises, whether it is poker or horse racing, attract dishonest people for the same basic reason that schools and youth groups attract pedophiles.

And this is where you really have to figure out ways to police the insiders and prevent regulatory capture. Because in theory, the racing commissions and stewards are supposed to be the bulwarks against dishonest people. In practice, well, you saw what happened here.

1) Look at who participates in the sport....the rich, successful people in this country. They own stuff, land, property, companies etc....they also have the means to make donations to a political candidate which has much more sway.

2) California is seeing a reduction of racing days, the sport in this state is undergoing contraction, I don't think their sway will mean much for the rest of the sport.

3) Maybe so, but you still have a seedy elements around the gambling industry that you will never be able to get rid of.