The only one absolute truth toward profitability

[MightBeSosa]

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Show Me the Wire

Churning is the point, the whole point, not profitability. Read this:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=100868

I really hope you do not imagine this is new material. That is why I asked for a definition of "high probability." I think you must not realize how many "Sartin advocates," "Sartin seminars," and wildly misleading Sartin group claims were built on precisely this premise--that long-term profits are possible betting low-odds favorites. Those low-odds favorites win a bit more than the higher odds favorites, but still in the 70% range. Perhaps even as much as 75% in some select cases.

The reality omitted is that the unstated assumption of "high probability" is nowhere near the percentage required to turn a profit, or to break even. If one cannot consistently earn a return of 93%, that 7% rebate offers zilch other than "losing less." Anyone wagering millions in the hope of "losing less" has serious, serious issues that go way beyond the pros and cons of rebates.

Or do you not realize the every bet made while "churning" comes from a bankroll that goes up or down based on wins and losses?

[baconswitchfarm]

I will give the quick rundown of my story. I don't consider my self a whale , but am a fair sized bettor. In 2006 I was in various areas of the horse business and a pretty good bettor. The track i was at came up with a program 3% rebate. Guys who knew me, constantly suggested I go somewhere that offered a top level rebate and assured me i would succeed . At the time I was wagering around 50k a month. At the end of 2006 I packed my bags and drove to a track where i had worked out a great rebate , private office , and tellers if needed. In exchange I agreed to try to bet at a level agreed on. Leaving my wife behind , I took 10k and drove 11 hours and checked in a hotel.

It is now 2013.My wife long ago moved here and we own a home. I have bet around 28 million dollars off that initial money.I have NEVER had a winning year before rebates. To maximize the rebates you simply must spread around too much to win pre rebate. If I wanted to bet less than a million a year I could have a positive roi , but would have less income. I have cleared six figures every year after rebates. Not a millionaire, but on my way.

I know four or five guys with about the same story as me. All lose pre rebate but all make a living. We all live in the united states. Taxes suck , but try getting a mortgage without paying any. God bless the man who invented the rebate.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Sometimes, I am astounded by some of the stuff I read here.

I see PA as dividing into two basic groups: The ultra-serious players and the only mildly serious players. I suppose there is a less-than-serious group but apparently they do not post much (or at least I don't read them much).

It is the ultra-serious group to whom I write at this time.

Let me preface this by saying that I enjoy what many of you post because every once in awhile there is a nugget of information that I can use. Occasionally, those nuggets can be quite large, like the one I got while speaking with Delta Lover not so long ago.

All that being said, I am amazed at how myopic most of you can consistently be. You have a tendency to see YOUR approach as the ONLY approach. (Yes, that is old news.) But beyond that, you miss the world of racing that is around you.

I am a serious horse player. It is a huge part of my life. As such, I read everything I can about racing. EVERYTHING!

BTW, if what I want to read comes with a price, then that makes it all the more valuable because fewer of you will be reading it.

I am going to show you something.



This is my digital file cabinet. It is stored in a product called TreePad .

In that tree, you can see that I have been collecting articles, formulas, and anything else that relates to what I am trying to accomplish for years. YEARS. About 12 years ago I collected everything on my hard drive that pertained to racing, sorted it, and added it to TreePad.

BTW, in the right-hand pane are the articles themselves, usually including the illustrations.

Remember Box Cars angles?




For those who would be critical, my goal is to beat the game of horse racing to MY SATISFACTION. I am not currently doing that, but I am coming ever-closer.

If you take the game anywhere near as seriously as I do, how can you be so firmly entrenched in your own beliefs that you do not want to know what someone else is doing that could aid you in YOUR quest?

How can you not read EVERYTHING?

Here is the BIG question I would ask of you:

How can any of you ULTRA-SERIOUS players not be aware that whales exist? Over the years there have been literally DOZENS of articles written about them, naming them, even admissions by them of how much they wager.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Personally I do not doubt their existence. Maybe the numbers are smaller than what is commonly believed but they exist.

What I am not so sure about is their betting performance. Although they are enjoying a tremendous advantage due to rebates, I still think that some of the whales have to be losers.

More than this, I will repeat that I am OK with the existence of ultra large bettors, what I do not like is their rebate plans that are providing them with unfair edge...

[traynor]

I don't think anyone is disputing that there are a number of bettors who wager enough to be considered "whales" if the criteria for being a "whale" is betting large amounts of money.

I think the skepticism is in regard to the "whales" being bean-counting grinders who cannot earn a profit from flat betting, are thus dependent on rebates for profit, and earn "seven figure incomes from rebates." That sounds like pure fantasy.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Sometimes, I am astounded by some of the stuff I read here.

I see PA as dividing into two basic groups: The ultra-serious players and the only mildly serious players. I suppose there is a less-than-serious group but apparently they do not post much (or at least I don't read them much).

It is the ultra-serious group to whom I write at this time.

Let me preface this by saying that I enjoy what many of you post because every once in awhile there is a nugget of information that I can use. Occasionally, those nuggets can be quite large, like the one I got while speaking with Delta Lover not so long ago.

All that being said, I am amazed at how myopic most of you can consistently be. You have a tendency to see YOUR approach as the ONLY approach. (Yes, that is old news.) But beyond that, you miss the world of racing that is around you.

I am a serious horse player. It is a huge part of my life. As such, I read everything I can about racing. EVERYTHING!

BTW, if what I want to read comes with a price, then that makes it all the more valuable because fewer of you will be reading it.

I am going to show you something.



This is my digital file cabinet. It is stored in a product called TreePad .

In that tree, you can see that I have been collecting articles, formulas, and anything else that relates to what I am trying to accomplish for years. YEARS. About 12 years ago I collected everything on my hard drive that pertained to racing, sorted it, and added it to TreePad.

BTW, in the right-hand pane are the articles themselves, usually including the illustrations.

Remember Box Cars angles?




For those who would be critical, my goal is to beat the game of horse racing to MY SATISFACTION. I am not currently doing that, but I am coming ever-closer.

If you take the game anywhere near as seriously as I do, how can you be so firmly entrenched in your own beliefs that you do not want to know what someone else is doing that could aid you in YOUR quest?

How can you not read EVERYTHING?

Here is the BIG question I would ask of you:

How can any of you ULTRA-SERIOUS players not be aware that whales exist? Over the years there have been literally DOZENS of articles written about them, naming them, even admissions by them of how much they wager.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Is this directed at anyone in particular?

Has anybody really said that these whales "do not really exist"?

And because they exist...are we obligated to believe everything that people say about them?

[traynor]

Originally Posted by baconswitchfarm

I will give the quick rundown of my story. I don't consider my self a whale , but am a fair sized bettor. In 2006 I was in various areas of the horse business and a pretty good bettor. The track i was at came up with a program 3% rebate. Guys who knew me, constantly suggested I go somewhere that offered a top level rebate and assured me i would succeed . At the time I was wagering around 50k a month. At the end of 2006 I packed my bags and drove to a track where i had worked out a great rebate , private office , and tellers if needed. In exchange I agreed to try to bet at a level agreed on. Leaving my wife behind , I took 10k and drove 11 hours and checked in a hotel.

It is now 2013.My wife long ago moved here and we own a home. I have bet around 28 million dollars off that initial money.I have NEVER had a winning year before rebates. To maximize the rebates you simply must spread around too much to win pre rebate. If I wanted to bet less than a million a year I could have a positive roi , but would have less income. I have cleared six figures every year after rebates. Not a millionaire, but on my way.

I know four or five guys with about the same story as me. All lose pre rebate but all make a living. We all live in the united states. Taxes suck , but try getting a mortgage without paying any. God bless the man who invented the rebate.

If you say so, it must be true. A private office, too.

[Maximillion]

I know this has been discussed before,but are whales "bad for the game?"

From reading here I would think the exact opposite would be true...many of the minor tracks that I like to play seem to have relatively consistent pools.Is most of this action "whale" money?
What kind of pools would these tracks have if this is not the case?
Or do the whales only wager on "major" circuits?

[Dave Schwartz]

If you say so, it must be true. A private office, too.

I have no personal knowledge of BaconSwitch's situation.

However, I DO have knowledge of the above situation EXISTING.

I also know of a track where there are close-to-zero rebates that installed a server to take one of my client's wagers and gives him a far better rebate.

I have been at this a long time. I have read this guy's posts. Although I do not always agree with him, what he says has the ring of truth to it. At least it does to me. It is a story similar to four or five others I have heard (and verified).

If I were a betting man (LOL) I would lay 3/1 that he is telling the truth.

Just my opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: Instead of doubting him, why don't you ask him what he is willing to share? If he talks long enough, and answers enough questions, you MIGHT learn something.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I have no personal knowledge of BaconSwitch's situation.

However, I DO have knowledge of the above situation EXISTING.

I also know of a track where there are close-to-zero rebates that installed a server to take one of my client's wagers and gives him a far better rebate.

I have been at this a long time. I have read this guy's posts. Although I do not always agree with him, what he says has the ring of truth to it. At least it does to me. It is a story similar to four or five others I have heard (and verified).

If I were a betting man (LOL) I would lay 3/1 that he is telling the truth.

Just my opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: Instead of doubting him, why don't you ask him what he is willing to share? If he talks long enough, and answers enough questions, you MIGHT learn something.

Like the man said, a difference of opinion is what makes a horse race.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by traynor

I really hope you do not imagine this is new material. That is why I asked for a definition of "high probability." I think you must not realize how many "Sartin advocates," "Sartin seminars," and wildly misleading Sartin group claims were built on precisely this premise--that long-term profits are possible betting low-odds favorites. Those low-odds favorites win a bit more than the higher odds favorites, but still in the 70% range. Perhaps even as much as 75% in some select cases.

The reality omitted is that the unstated assumption of "high probability" is nowhere near the percentage required to turn a profit, or to break even. If one cannot consistently earn a return of 93%, that 7% rebate offers zilch other than "losing less." Anyone wagering millions in the hope of "losing less" has serious, serious issues that go way beyond the pros and cons of rebates.

Or do you not realize the every bet made while "churning" comes from a bankroll that goes up or down based on wins and losses?

You act is if I said bet every low price favorite. If you are good enough you can tell which low price contenders are worth the risk and which are not. In your lingo earn a return of 97%. It can be done if you are good enough and selective enough.

The question becomes how many times can you churn your investment.

It seems you don't believe out of a 365 days you can find at least two races, with 2 strong top contenders, at major circuits 124 times. Your belief may be true for you, but your truth does not apply to everyone.

Of course the person would have to be selective, but it can be done. You even may be luckier some days and have one strong race, like yesterday with Game on Dude, and churn your desired amount on one place bet.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I know this has been discussed before,but are whales "bad for the game?"

From reading here I would think the exact opposite would be true...many of the minor tracks that I like to play seem to have relatively consistent pools.Is most of this action "whale" money?
What kind of pools would these tracks have if this is not the case?
Or do the whales only wager on "major" circuits?

More than likely barn money. A track like Arlington Park can't handle whale type money, except for certain days like Million day.

[Greyfox]

One Hyde Park, London, one of the world's richest condominium towers, is the home of David Walsh, who with George Mamacas, Zeljko Ranogajec and a couple of others, have bet billions at various gambling games and horse racing over the years.

Their gambling operations apparently extend around the world and operate 24/7. They've reputedly made piles of money at Keno, Black Jack, and Horse racing. Revenue Services in Australia and England are looking into them paying back taxes.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/today-tonig...bling-society/

http://www.racerate.com/Zeljko_Ranogajec.htm

Some casinos have stopped them from playing Black Jack.
No problem there.

Now it's my understanding, that even in Vegas if you are winning too much, the Casinos don't want your action.
If I'm wrong please tell me.

I can appreciate why these guys would milk the rebate systems for all they can get in horse racing.
But I can't quite wrap my mind around why the various tote betting companies wouldn't want to give them the boot like casinos do.

With my very superficial understanding of the economics of all this, I seems to me that the tote companies would be making more money without them,
if they are winning as much as they supposedly are with rebates.

Can someone enlighten me as to why any rebate company would want these guys?

[Cratos]

I don't believe that most on this forum are not serious horseracing bettors, but I do believe that the euphemism called "whales" have never been uniquely defined on this forum and that has led to an array of interpretations of the "whale" concept.

By the way when it comes to taking financial risk there are "whales" in most if not all investments.

[Show Me the Wire]

Greyfox,

Unlike Casinos where the house loses money, in horse racing the rebate shop takes other peoples money and gives it to their customer to keep his business.

Without the big customer the rebate shop would not exist. Casinos won't exist long with the big winners.