timeFormUS demo and the MAN O' WAR G1

[Capper Al]

Marc of TimeformUS gave me a demo on race #2 at Bel for July 13 (Saturday). One doesn't know much after a one race demo about any product. What I can say is that this isn't your grandfather's racing form anymore is absolutely correct. If I were back in Chicago, this would be the electronic racing form that I would use on a tablet or laptop to take to the OTB or track. One has access to lots of information quickly by just clicking around. I especially like the jockey information. TimeformUS redefines how we look at jockeys. Not by current meet win percent or ROI, but by adjusting time frames going back five years if necessary and other formula modifications. Also CJ's Pace Project is a welcomed tool to anyone's handicapping arsenal.

Let's handicap the MAN O' WAR:

Picsix's visualization of timeformUS's MAN O' WAR G1 race using Pace Projector:

Race 9: (3-1-2)
----------1
---------2
--------------3

All Pace Projector does is predict the leaders at the call which, most of the time, is an important piece of information. My homegrown pace projector also indicates that this race should favor early speed, but my final computation doesn't give it to the early horses. I'm not so big on Pace Projectors for an eleven furlong turf race. Looking at TimeformUS's projections, neither are they. They pick them 6-1-4 at the wire. I see it as the 1-4-6 having a lock on this race. Two out of three of these should finish in the money. The #8 could surprise as a long shot. So the #4 or #8 might get some odds, but I'd demand at least 7/1 odds here.

My call:

Final Speed: 8-6
Class: 6-4-1
Selection: 1-4-6 Long shot: #8

Good Luck!

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Marc of TimeformUS gave me a demo on race #2 at Bel for July 13 (Saturday). One doesn't know much after a one race demo about any product. What I can say is that this isn't your grandfather's racing form anymore is absolutely correct. If I were back in Chicago, this would be the electronic racing form that I would use on a tablet or laptop to take to the OTB or track. One has access to lots of information quickly by just clicking around. I especially like the jockey information. TimeformUS redefines how we look at jockeys. Not by current meet win percent or ROI, but by adjusting time frames going back five years if necessary and other formula modifications. Also CJ's Pace Project is a welcomed tool to anyone's handicapping arsenal.

Let's handicap the MAN O' WAR:

Picsix's visualization of timeformUS's MAN O' WAR G1 race using Pace Projector:

Race 9: (3-1-2)
----------1
---------2
--------------3

All Pace Projector does is predict the leaders at the call which, most of the time, is an important piece of information. My homegrown pace projector also indicates that this race should favor early speed, but my final computation doesn't give it to the early horses. I'm not so big on Pace Projectors for an eleven furlong turf race. Looking at TimeformUS's projections, neither are they. They pick them 6-1-4 at the wire. I see it as the 1-4-6 having a lock on this race. Two out of three of these should finish in the money. The #8 could surprise as a long shot. So the #4 or #8 might get some odds, but I'd demand at least 7/1 odds here.

My call:

Final Speed: 8-6
Class: 6-4-1
Selection: 1-4-6 Long shot: #8

Good Luck!

Just to be clear, those are projections that I made. They just happen to match timeformUS for this race.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I'm not so big on Pace Projectors for an eleven furlong turf race. Looking at TimeformUS's projections, neither are they. They pick them 6-1-4 at the wire. I see it as the 1-4-6 having a lock on this race. Two out of three of these should finish in the money. The #8 could surprise as a long shot. So the #4 or #8 might get some odds, but I'd demand at least 7/1 odds here.

My call:

Final Speed: 8-6
Class: 6-4-1
Selection: 1-4-6 Long shot: #8

Good Luck!

Just to clear up one thing, the 1-2-3 selections are from Timeform (UK) and don't have anything to do with the ratings we provide or the Pace Projector. This is similar to the star ratings. I believe there are some changes coming to this, but as of now that is where it stands.

[cj]

Pace Projector

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by cj

Just to clear up one thing, the 1-2-3 selections are from Timeform (UK) and don't have anything to do with the ratings we provide or the Pace Projector. This is similar to the star ratings. I believe there are some changes coming to this, but as of now that is where it stands.

I was under the impression the spotlight figure was the horses best recent figure yet in the Virginia Derby Rydilluc ran a 106 last race ,where Jack Milton and Charming Kitten got their 104 and 107 spotlight ratings, but his rating is only a 95.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

I was under the impression the spotlight figure was the horses best recent figure yet in the Virginia Derby Rydilluc ran a 106 last race ,where Jack Milton and Charming Kitten got their 104 and 107 spotlight ratings, but his rating is only a 95.

The spotlight figure is based on our figures. I won't lie though, I don't remember all the rules. I'm sure with Rydilluc it is because the 106 was at a mile and this race is 10f.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

Just to clear up one thing, the 1-2-3 selections are from Timeform (UK) and don't have anything to do with the ratings we provide or the Pace Projector. This is similar to the star ratings. I believe there are some changes coming to this, but as of now that is where it stands.

Thanks CJ. I wondered why the spot light numbers didn't match up.

[Capper Al]

RACE 9:

$2 Trifecta 6-4-8 $266.00

Sweet! liked that 8. The 8 went off at 20 something to 1.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by cj

The spotlight figure is based on our figures. I won't lie though, I don't remember all the rules. I'm sure with Rydilluc it is because the 106 was at a mile and this race is 10f.

Well it was right about Rydilluc as he either came up empty or had something go wrong with him.

I don't mean to keep pressing on the question but I plan on using these pps as a major part of my handicapping once they are available and it would be helpful if I knew what everything meant.I don't think it could be because he earned the 106 at a mile.Charming Kitten and Jack Milton both came out of that same race at a mile and their figure was used as their spotlight figure.

The legend says "Each horses most relevant,recent speed figure" but don't understand why 3 horses come out of the same race with that being most relevant for 2 of the horses but not the 3rd.

I understand there is a ton going on inside of these pps with many heads involved so maybe this isn't your part.If you can bring it to the attention of whoever is making them and have them clarify the legend key I think that would be helpful for players figuring these out.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Well it was right about Rydilluc as he either came up empty or had something go wrong with him.

I don't mean to keep pressing on the question but I plan on using these pps as a major part of my handicapping once they are available and it would be helpful if I knew what everything meant.I don't think it could be because he earned the 106 at a mile.Charming Kitten and Jack Milton both came out of that same race at a mile and their figure was used as their spotlight figure.

The legend says "Each horses most relevant,recent speed figure" but don't understand why 3 horses come out of the same race with that being most relevant for 2 of the horses but not the 3rd.

I understand there is a ton going on inside of these pps with many heads involved so maybe this isn't your part.If you can bring it to the attention of whoever is making them and have them clarify the legend key I think that would be helpful for players figuring these out.

I *think* (but I'll confirm on Monday) that we are looking at the last three races. From those, there are rules in place. Rydilluc had a race within 1 furlong of today in that time span, so it takes precedence. The others did not. They had races at 1m 1/16, but that isn't close enough to today's distance to trump a mile race.

And please, ask away, I'll answer when I can or find out the answer when I don't know it.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by cj

I *think* (but I'll confirm on Monday) that we are looking at the last three races. From those, there are rules in place. Rydilluc had a race within 1 furlong of today in that time span, so it takes precedence. The others did not. They had races at 1m 1/16, but that isn't close enough to today's distance to trump a mile race.

And please, ask away, I'll answer when I can or find out the answer when I don't know it.

That makes sense.Thx

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

Just to clear up one thing, the 1-2-3 selections are from Timeform (UK) and don't have anything to do with the ratings we provide or the Pace Projector. This is similar to the star ratings. I believe there are some changes coming to this, but as of now that is where it stands.

This might indicate that the UK numbers and the US numbers don't share a single sorce of input data for generating their numbers. It would then appear that the results of the UK and the US numbers are independent of each other as they were with this race.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

This might indicate that the UK numbers and the US numbers don't share a single sorce of input data for generating their numbers. It would then appear that the results of the UK and the US numbers are independent of each other as they were with this race.

This has already been addressed, but you seem to want to beat it to death.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

This has already been addressed, but you seem to want to beat it to death.

You're right. I'm just trying to be certain. My need is for same source data, not for another set of numbers. I'm a data puller not a software user. This is not to take away from the product. TimeformUS is definitely the best product for your tablet or laptop to take to the OTB or track. It's just my needs are a little different and not mainstream.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

You're right. I'm just trying to be certain. My need is for same source data, not for another set of numbers. I'm a data puller not a software user. This is not to take away from the product. TimeformUS is definitely the best product for your tablet or laptop to take to the OTB or track. It's just my needs are a little different and not mainstream.

I honestly don't understand what you are wanting. You want Timeform ratings produced by those in the UK, not ours?

Let me put it this way...I think it is much better to have people that are experts on North American racing do the figures for North American races, and let the experts on foreign racing handle the numbers for foreign races, but maybe that is just me.

Racing here and abroad is quite different in a lot of ways, not the least of which is the way races are measured and reported. Why would anyone want to use the same methods to rate the horses with vastly differing data?