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Old 06-12-2018, 12:36 AM   #46
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Why didn’t Obama do this? He was so smart......?
Don't you get it. OBAMA DID DO IT.

We're just getting the delayed results of his UBER BRILLIANCE.

Damn Ralph. Why you be so slow in da head?
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Old 06-15-2018, 06:24 PM   #47
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https://www.fxstreet.com/news/atlant...6-201806141617

If Trump gets five percent Dems will be slitting their own throats
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Old 06-15-2018, 06:27 PM   #48
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https://www.fxstreet.com/news/atlant...6-201806141617

If Trump gets five percent Dems will be slitting their own throats
Nah, they'll just post more about who's gonna SING next.

They like to ignore stuff like this...unless it's the predictable "this is because of Obama" crap.
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:35 AM   #49
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Inflation will be a problem later next year unless the FED raises rates quite a bit this year. This excessive growth is my main concern with this economy.
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Old 06-16-2018, 07:39 AM   #50
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Inflation will be a problem later next year unless the FED raises rates quite a bit this year. This excessive growth is my main concern with this economy.
Nobody talks about this.

We were nearly at the point of what is traditionally described as "full employment" when the government injected the tax cuts to help businesses and some individuals. While Obama was in office, I lamented his dislike for the "Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy" which he wanted to eliminate (until he made most of them permanent in the latter part of his administration as an extension of the "Middle Class Tax Cuts"). The economy needed a shot in the arm for most of his term, not increased taxes, but I admit that in retrospect, the economy eventually recovered and was rather solid when Trump took office.

We are already seeing it in parts of the country. "Help Wanted" signs and total incompetents being hired for jobs for which both the employee and employer are hoping they will qualify for. Last December I predicted a return of inflation and the signs of this happening are already there.

Inflation is not necessarily a problem if wages keep pace (in fact, runaway inflation would help us pay off the Chinese debt for pennies on the dollar), but it will take a significant toll on the ever increasing number of fixed-income seniors as the baby boomers retire. Likewise, the increased tariffs will likely add to the pressure to raise prices.

I cannot say I fully comprehend the impact that the increased tariffs and reduced exports (and imports) will have on the economy, since it will take time for the economy to adjust to these new rules, but if external goods cost more, it will add to inflation and if we have to build it here with the higher costs associated with the higher wages here at home, it will add to inflation. The only question will be how the demand curve shifts in response to the changes and how many businesses will not be able to survive the changes. If business failures increase sufficiently in response to the trade wars, perhaps there won't be any significant inflation to worry about.

I hope my projection of a return of the $4 gasoline price does not become a reality, but I am really not happy with the economy right now. Growth is good but an overheated economy is not. So much has changed in the last 10 years, that I believe it is uncertain how fast the economy can grow and how much unemployment can be reduced without having a negative impact.

We shall see.
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Old 06-16-2018, 10:13 AM   #51
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Inflation will be a problem later next year unless the FED raises rates quite a bit this year. This excessive growth is my main concern with this economy.
After a lost decade of Obama, “excessive growth” is now a worry I won’t have.
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Old 06-16-2018, 10:42 AM   #52
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After a lost decade of Obama, “excessive growth” is now a worry I won’t have.
I hear ya, but my concern is an inflation reduced recession or stagnation just prior to the 2020 election.
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Old 06-16-2018, 02:00 PM   #53
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I hear ya, but my concern is an inflation reduced recession or stagnation just prior to the 2020 election.
As we type, President Trump, is negotiating tariff reductions on our exports with our largest trading partners. Would this lower your inflation worries? Also, I think a balanced budget is in the future, as soon as the full impact of the tax cut are felt, would this help?
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:05 PM   #54
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Also, I think a balanced budget is in the future, as soon as the full impact of the tax cut are felt, would this help?

Last edited by elysiantraveller; 06-16-2018 at 06:08 PM.
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:47 PM   #55
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The CBO says the deficit is growing faster than previously expected, with tax cuts and increased government spending not producing the economic growth forecast. The deficit was projected to reach the $1 trillion mark in 2022, but that estimated has been revised to 2020.

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The U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases signed by President Donald Trump do little to boost long-term economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Spending will exceed revenue by $804 billion in the fiscal year through September, jumping from a projected $563 billion shortfall forecast in June, the non-partisan arm of Congress said in a report Monday. In fiscal 2019, the deficit will reach $981 billion, compared with an earlier projection of $689 billion.

The nation’s budget gap was only set to surpass the trillion-dollar level in fiscal 2022 under CBO’s report last June.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-2020-cbo-says
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Old 06-16-2018, 07:42 PM   #56
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The CBO says the deficit is growing faster than previously expected, with tax cuts and increased government spending not producing the economic growth forecast. The deficit was projected to reach the $1 trillion mark in 2022, but that estimated has been revised to 2020.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-2020-cbo-says
Trump said he would not sign another omnibus budget, he prefers individual appropriation bills. You know, the businessman approach, maybe that will help the deficit.

Last edited by incoming; 06-16-2018 at 07:50 PM.
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Old 06-16-2018, 08:25 PM   #57
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Trump said he would not sign another omnibus budget, he prefers individual appropriation bills. You know, the businessman approach, maybe that will help the deficit.

Congress loves omnibus budget bills. It makes it a lot easier to hide pork. And when you put off all your work until the last minute, an omnibus bill is the only way to beat the deadline.
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Old 06-16-2018, 08:49 PM   #58
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Congress loves omnibus budget bills. It makes it a lot easier to hide pork. And when you put off all your work until the last minute, an omnibus bill is the only way to beat the deadline.
Yep....one of the reasons that term limits have become a must...just like governors and presidents. Meanwhile, onward toward 6% GDP.
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:45 AM   #59
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Linked news

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=146309

GDP 4.1


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Old 12-11-2018, 06:39 PM   #60
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Ralph has been busy, I'm sure, so I thought I'd update his work. The Atlanta Fed (real-time GDP tracking) now pegs 4Q18 real GDP at 2.4%.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

Personally, I view quarterly GDP as a less-than-optimal economic indicator, given it is prone to significant revisions in the short to intermediate term. I think weekly unemployment claims are one of the better high frequency economic indicators, but the title of the thread is "let's track GDP," not weekly claims.

I wonder if the economy experienced a short-term sugar high from deficit spending over the first few quarters of the year? Remember the deficit? It's what Trump supporters cared about (rightfully so) prior to Trump taking office. According to the WHITE HOUSE, the FY19 deficit should reach almost $1.1 trillion, or almost 5.5% of GDP.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...8/07/19msr.pdf

Any Trump supporters want to tell me how job creation has looked under Trump vs. Obama's last two years? Radically better? Not really.

Average monthly job creation by year:

Obama*
2015: 226k/month

2016: 195k/month

Trump
2017: 182k/month

2018: 206k/month

Source: the Trump Labor Dept

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0..._view=net_1mth

*I'm using Obama's last two years b/c that's the trend that Trump inherited.

So why does the labor market and the economy "feel" a lot better now? Because it is better. Classic late cycle dynamics--the job market tightens and wage gains start to improve (superior wage gain dynamics under Trump--did not happen during Obama's last two years).

I didn't vote for Obama, but I wonder if he'd blown the hell out of the deficit (ala Trump) if wage gains and labor force participation rates would have improved sooner???
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