Unique Bella

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The figure always matters for proper context, and of course for the other horses as you alluded.

I hear you. Most people start with the figure and go from there.

I'm not sure what various figure comparisons say, but I thought It Tiz Well and Shane's Girlfriend both looked like pretty good horses coming in. Princess Karen didn't even look so bad (2 horse behind her came back to break their maidens). That's not so weak for a January 3yo Grade 2 stake.

There was a little battle in front of Unique Bella, but she moved past those horses easily while 4 wide and not being asked for her best. Then she drew off while still not being asked for her best. I think that was a legit very good race for her even if it didn't come up especially fast and I still think the horses behind her are OK.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The timing of the betting is an interesting phenomenon. I have a friend that's a serious trainer handicapper. He keeps all kinds of stats on trainers and owners that no one publishes. I know for sure he used to track early and late money by trainer and owner. He once told me he found consistent patterns that he's been able to use to supplement his own handicapping.

Many moons ago in NY , Tom Gullo was famous, at least for a period, where some of his winners would get pounded at the last flash. On the order of 10-1 to 6-1, that kind of thing.

Was harder to do back then when $100 tickets were the max.

You never really know who is doing the betting, an owner, trainer, or just a player with a strong opinion and deep pockets.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by cato

Mr. Phantom (and anyone else) - have you reviewed Bruno's workout reports and if so how do you think they compare to the three you mentioned?

Thanks

I think Bruno does a good job, as well. He does a lot of work and is worth augmenting into your handicapping.

[cj]

Originally Posted by menifee

Anyone notice that the Beyer on the race came up light? Timeform had it as a much stronger race. Visually, she looked really impressive.

I thought Shane's Girlfriend was the real value in the race when I saw 3-1. So did a whale apparently. I never learn my lesson about Delta form.

I've said for a while now the difference is ~20 points. Beyer gave an 88, I gave a 112 pace adjusted, but the final time figure was a 109. So really, we agreed on the speed of the track.

[delsully]

This girl goes again tomorrow in the Las Virgines. She's going two turn for the first time against some talented foes. That being said, I think she wins comfortably, as Champagne Room probably won' be cranked. Also, Bella is just more talented.

[classhandicapper]

It will be fun to see if she breaks out today.

I'm not a huge fan of the last year's BC Juvenile Filly race, but I think that race was probably better than the speed figures assigned and general perceptions about the race. There were quite a few rough trips in there. A few horses have come back to lose at short odds, but they are mostly running well and with better figures. When a bunch of horses looked faster than the figure going in and then run faster than the figure coming out, I think you can be fairly sure than they are better than the figure. The gap between Unique Bella and Champagne Room may be less than the figures imply. If Champagne Room is ready for a good effort off the freshening, she might force Unique Bella to run this time and we'll get to see how good she actually is.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not sure what various figure comparisons say, but I thought It Tiz Well and Shane's Girlfriend both looked like pretty good horses coming in. Princess Karen didn't even look so bad (2 horse behind her came back to break their maidens). That's not so weak for a January 3yo Grade 2 stake.

There was a little battle in front of Unique Bella, but she moved past those horses easily while 4 wide and not being asked for her best. Then she drew off while still not being asked for her best. I think that was a legit very good race for her even if it didn't come up especially fast and I still think the horses behind her are OK.

I just noticed that It Tiz Well came back and ran impressively next out, albeit against weaker.

[RunForTheRoses]

Another Superstar!

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Hollendorfer said the goal with Unique Bella is the Kentucky Oaks.

[RunForTheRoses]

It was a small field but she didn't break a sweat. All motion. Lets see what the speed fig was.

[classhandicapper]

I was hoping Champagne Room would come back 100%, run a faster figure, and press Unique Bella enough to at least reveal what she has in the tank. Well, Champagne Room ran a small lifetime top, Mopotism improved more than that, and she still totally toyed with them.

I think my original thought may have been correct. We aren't going to see what she has in the tank until she either takes on Songbird or colts.

Beyer of 98 never asked at any stage.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I was hoping Champagne Room would come back 100%, run a faster figure, and press Unique Bella enough to at least reveal what she has in the tank. Well, Champagne Room ran a small lifetime top, Mopotism improved more than that, and she still totally toyed with them.

I think my original thought may have been correct. We aren't going to see what she has in the tank until she either takes on Songbird or colts.

Beyer of 98 never asked at any stage.

118 from me, so we agree right on. It wasn't an easy figure as the only route and for improving 3yos. It could have been higher but I think being conservative was the way to go here given the visuals of the race.

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by cj

118 from me, so we agree right on. It wasn't an easy figure as the only route and for improving 3yos. It could have been higher but I think being conservative was the way to go here given the visuals of the race.

CJ I know she went about a second faster than Songbird did last year. What was the fig difference?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

118 from me, so we agree right on. It wasn't an easy figure as the only route and for improving 3yos. It could have been higher but I think being conservative was the way to go here given the visuals of the race.

When some people were downgrading Songbird a bit last year because she wasn't putting up big figures early in the year, I felt sure I was watching a horse that was a lot better than her numbers.

I feel the same way now.

It was obvious Unique Bella could have put up a way faster number than she did last time if she was prompting better horses and asked late (it appears that race was also just upgraded from an 88 to a 91).

I think it's also pretty obvious she can do quite a bit better than her 98 also.

If she was chasing better horses yesterday she clearly could have stayed with them without taxing herself and I saw no sign she was anywhere near empty at the end. At this stage there's no telling how good she is, but we are all lucky to get to watch her. I hope she stays sound.

Could you imagine Smith having to choose between the 2 of them?

[cj]

Originally Posted by SuperPickle

CJ I know she went about a second faster than Songbird did last year. What was the fig difference?

She ran a 111 overall, 108 final time.

Unique Bella ran 118 overall, 117 final time.