Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-01-2022, 07:45 AM   #1
Gerard02
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 194
When you deviate from you discipline

Three days into the Belmont meet, I changed my betting strategy that cost me the first race triple and superfecta. My wagering strategy was terrible in the past. I used to take my picks and just box them. Then, I discovered I could wheel my selections in the Superfecta. Well, the first two days, I hit a couple of cheap triples, exactas and DD’s. But, something happened in yesterday’s race 1 at Belmont. I had 1-2-4-6. The new strategy would be to box the four in a triple, then wheel them 1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/all for the super. I noticed the jockey sending the 6 out like a rocket in the post parade and got a chill. I’ve seen horses burn out. At first, I figured, I’d just toss the 6 and keep the others, but I thought that might backfire, if the 6 held third. So, I wheeled 6 with 1-2-4. Dumb move. The 6 burned out and faded to last while 1-2-4 hit the board. I also, forgot to play the super and I’m seem thst! I blew a $145 payout. Wasn’t a total loss as I hit the the exacta and win bet. I was still alive in the DD and Pick 3, which I eventually scored. The moral of the story. Don’t change horses in midtrack. ����. Stick to your plan, unless, it’s not working over many races. Thanks for reading.

Last edited by Gerard02; 05-01-2022 at 07:47 AM.
Gerard02 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-01-2022, 09:34 AM   #2
Brisk Urging
Registered User
 
Brisk Urging's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 312
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard02 View Post
Three days into the Belmont meet, I changed my betting strategy that cost me the first race triple and superfecta. My wagering strategy was terrible in the past. I used to take my picks and just box them. Then, I discovered I could wheel my selections in the Superfecta. Well, the first two days, I hit a couple of cheap triples, exactas and DDís. But, something happened in yesterdayís race 1 at Belmont. I had 1-2-4-6. The new strategy would be to box the four in a triple, then wheel them 1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/all for the super. I noticed the jockey sending the 6 out like a rocket in the post parade and got a chill. Iíve seen horses burn out. At first, I figured, Iíd just toss the 6 and keep the others, but I thought that might backfire, if the 6 held third. So, I wheeled 6 with 1-2-4. Dumb move. The 6 burned out and faded to last while 1-2-4 hit the board. I also, forgot to play the super and Iím seem thst! I blew a $145 payout. Wasnít a total loss as I hit the the exacta and win bet. I was still alive in the DD and Pick 3, which I eventually scored. The moral of the story. Donít change horses in midtrack. ����. Stick to your plan, unless, itís not working over many races. Thanks for reading.

You dont.Weather the storm.Trust your process.
Brisk Urging is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-01-2022, 02:27 PM   #3
lex
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 198
I don't have a plan but I have to constantly remind myself not to let others or even my own head talk me off a horse. I'm good for a while and then next thing I know I'm doubting, making change and I end up screwed.
lex is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-01-2022, 08:30 PM   #4
Gerard02
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 194
Thatís me at times, but this time, decided not to allow it. I have my selections and Iím playing them. This weekend saw a nice profit.
Gerard02 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-01-2022, 09:41 PM   #5
tbwinner
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 1,826
I get the same way when I play on track. I am not a good physicality handicapper but sometimes seeing these in the paddock I talk myself off a horse. And then I regret it as they draw off to win by 6. I think with watching warmups or paddock notes, you have to do it with absolute consistency. Some horses may look off or dull, but that just may be how they are and they run fine with that peculiarity.
tbwinner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2022, 06:01 PM   #6
Gerard02
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by tbwinner View Post
I get the same way when I play on track. I am not a good physicality handicapper but sometimes seeing these in the paddock I talk myself off a horse. And then I regret it as they draw off to win by 6. I think with watching warmups or paddock notes, you have to do it with absolute consistency. Some horses may look off or dull, but that just may be how they are and they run fine with that peculiarity.
I totally agree. Iíve talked myself off horses many times and got burned. However, Iíve seen some horses that looked like they were dipped in soap, and needed a wheelchair to get off the track. My wagering plan involves four horses boxed in the exotics. My discipline is to reduce the wager if two of three fall below 2-1. I make an exception for only one horse to dip even below 2-1. So far, itís worked good. Iíll see how we go along from the meet. This is the opportunity, Iíve been waiting for. I planned out the strategy, which Iím sure anyone easily could. Itís pretty simple when you see it on paper. The tough part is sticking to it for 11 weeks. I would suggest that if another situation in the paddock or Post Parade occurs, rather than toss your horse, pick another to include in the wager, just in case. An insurance horse. It may cost more, but it might be better than kamikazeing your wager. Good luck.
Gerard02 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2022, 02:49 AM   #7
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,856
Well, if I had any discipline to begin with, I could kick myself more often when I deviate from it...

My rule on this is to never listen to anybody else. If I change my picks due to my own inconsistency, at least I don't have to slap somebody upside the head, besides myself.
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-08-2022, 04:36 PM   #8
Thomas Roulston
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Lakehurst, NJ
Posts: 999
Didn't the late Harvey Pack say, "Sometimes you have to break your own rules"?

And too bad he didn't live to see what happens in yesterday's Derby - since we all know what he would have said:

"And it's big balloons!"
Thomas Roulston is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2022, 01:12 AM   #9
ranchwest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 4,750
Quote:
Originally Posted by tbwinner View Post
I get the same way when I play on track. I am not a good physicality handicapper but sometimes seeing these in the paddock I talk myself off a horse. And then I regret it as they draw off to win by 6. I think with watching warmups or paddock notes, you have to do it with absolute consistency. Some horses may look off or dull, but that just may be how they are and they run fine with that peculiarity.
I suggest either a deep dive into physicality or sticking with data. Knowing a little about physicality is often more hurtful than helpful.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:37 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.