When you deviate from you discipline

[Gerard02]

Three days into the Belmont meet, I changed my betting strategy that cost me the first race triple and superfecta. My wagering strategy was terrible in the past. I used to take my picks and just box them. Then, I discovered I could wheel my selections in the Superfecta. Well, the first two days, I hit a couple of cheap triples, exactas and DD’s. But, something happened in yesterday’s race 1 at Belmont. I had 1-2-4-6. The new strategy would be to box the four in a triple, then wheel them 1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/all for the super. I noticed the jockey sending the 6 out like a rocket in the post parade and got a chill. I’ve seen horses burn out. At first, I figured, I’d just toss the 6 and keep the others, but I thought that might backfire, if the 6 held third. So, I wheeled 6 with 1-2-4. Dumb move. The 6 burned out and faded to last while 1-2-4 hit the board. I also, forgot to play the super and I’m seem thst! I blew a $145 payout. Wasn’t a total loss as I hit the the exacta and win bet. I was still alive in the DD and Pick 3, which I eventually scored. The moral of the story. Don’t change horses in midtrack. ����. Stick to your plan, unless, it’s not working over many races. Thanks for reading.

[Brisk Urging]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

Three days into the Belmont meet, I changed my betting strategy that cost me the first race triple and superfecta. My wagering strategy was terrible in the past. I used to take my picks and just box them. Then, I discovered I could wheel my selections in the Superfecta. Well, the first two days, I hit a couple of cheap triples, exactas and DD’s. But, something happened in yesterday’s race 1 at Belmont. I had 1-2-4-6. The new strategy would be to box the four in a triple, then wheel them 1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/1-2-4-6/all for the super. I noticed the jockey sending the 6 out like a rocket in the post parade and got a chill. I’ve seen horses burn out. At first, I figured, I’d just toss the 6 and keep the others, but I thought that might backfire, if the 6 held third. So, I wheeled 6 with 1-2-4. Dumb move. The 6 burned out and faded to last while 1-2-4 hit the board. I also, forgot to play the super and I’m seem thst! I blew a $145 payout. Wasn’t a total loss as I hit the the exacta and win bet. I was still alive in the DD and Pick 3, which I eventually scored. The moral of the story. Don’t change horses in midtrack. ����. Stick to your plan, unless, it’s not working over many races. Thanks for reading.

You dont.Weather the storm.Trust your process.

[lex]

I don't have a plan but I have to constantly remind myself not to let others or even my own head talk me off a horse. I'm good for a while and then next thing I know I'm doubting, making change and I end up screwed.

[Gerard02]

That’s me at times, but this time, decided not to allow it. I have my selections and I’m playing them. This weekend saw a nice profit.

[tbwinner]

I get the same way when I play on track. I am not a good physicality handicapper but sometimes seeing these in the paddock I talk myself off a horse. And then I regret it as they draw off to win by 6. I think with watching warmups or paddock notes, you have to do it with absolute consistency. Some horses may look off or dull, but that just may be how they are and they run fine with that peculiarity.

[Gerard02]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

I get the same way when I play on track. I am not a good physicality handicapper but sometimes seeing these in the paddock I talk myself off a horse. And then I regret it as they draw off to win by 6. I think with watching warmups or paddock notes, you have to do it with absolute consistency. Some horses may look off or dull, but that just may be how they are and they run fine with that peculiarity.

I totally agree. I’ve talked myself off horses many times and got burned. However, I’ve seen some horses that looked like they were dipped in soap, and needed a wheelchair to get off the track. My wagering plan involves four horses boxed in the exotics. My discipline is to reduce the wager if two of three fall below 2-1. I make an exception for only one horse to dip even below 2-1. So far, it’s worked good. I’ll see how we go along from the meet. This is the opportunity, I’ve been waiting for. I planned out the strategy, which I’m sure anyone easily could. It’s pretty simple when you see it on paper. The tough part is sticking to it for 11 weeks. I would suggest that if another situation in the paddock or Post Parade occurs, rather than toss your horse, pick another to include in the wager, just in case. An insurance horse. It may cost more, but it might be better than kamikazeing your wager. Good luck.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Well, if I had any discipline to begin with, I could kick myself more often when I deviate from it...

My rule on this is to never listen to anybody else. If I change my picks due to my own inconsistency, at least I don't have to slap somebody upside the head, besides myself.

[Thomas Roulston]

Didn't the late Harvey Pack say, "Sometimes you have to break your own rules"?

And too bad he didn't live to see what happens in yesterday's Derby - since we all know what he would have said:

"And it's big balloons!"

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

I get the same way when I play on track. I am not a good physicality handicapper but sometimes seeing these in the paddock I talk myself off a horse. And then I regret it as they draw off to win by 6. I think with watching warmups or paddock notes, you have to do it with absolute consistency. Some horses may look off or dull, but that just may be how they are and they run fine with that peculiarity.

I suggest either a deep dive into physicality or sticking with data. Knowing a little about physicality is often more hurtful than helpful.