How do YOU define "Lone Speed"?

[headhawg]

While Lone Speed scenarios undoubtedly exist, try to predict one. It's not really much different than trying to predict any pace scenario in a given race. Do you ever see anyone report the accuracy of their pace scenario predictions? I don't think I ever have, and it's probably because they wouldn't look too good after the races have been run.

[Tom]

I find the best LS situations come with class drops. Horse with moderate early speed dropping into a race of proven losers can pay off sometimes.

[theotherside]

Exactly.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by cj

For me, lone speed is a horse capable of establishing a clear lead while running comfortably, i.e. not ridden all out to do so.

Concise, to the point, and 100% the answer...

[EQUIPACE]

Hello PA Folk,
Long time no post. But I'm still here after all these years and getting over some health issues. I'm still programming and using my Excel formulated calcs and spreadsheets to find winners still again.

socialnetworker's post is on the money!

He may be right here...
"Only 2 E type horses have won the Derby in the past 20 years without being disqualified/using PEDs: SuperSaver and War Emblem, and both of those had demonstrated Late Pace capacity among the Top 4 in their fields."

It brings back a great memory and day of playing the Derby back in 2002. Internet wagering was rare for the most part, if possible at all. What is interesting was his reply above about War Emblem in the 2002 Derby. I was living in Denver then and my Pony playing friends were still on the (West Coast) SF Bay Area Where I Grew Up). We had spent hours on the phone and realized War Emblem not only had Early Speed, which we labeled as the best Front End Speed but also had some late kick potential at the same time. We all came to that agreement. I think we were using Sartin style figures too. The next day, we went to the local simulcast facilities to make our bets. Our confidence levels were ridiculously high that day too. Well we all knocked out of the park and I memorialized my Win and Place tickets before I drove back over and cashed them in. Of course I wished I had really loaded up. But I can assure you Mama was quite happy when I said lets go to dinner.

So what is the point here? Its to remind players how rare it is to see horses with the easy lead on the front that might also have good closing figs at the late end too.

This angle does still exist, and when it does, I still usually get a good payoff when I'm right!

Early Speed, Front Runners, or whatever term you use to describe them, even Lone Speed that also have top late or closing figures as well are a great bet, especially when they are overlays. They don't come up that often, but when they do, I usually bet them or at least key them in exotics regardless of odds! I still have this frame hanging in my office... Hopefully the picture link works! https://imgur.com/a/g1sWFGF

[classhandicapper]

This is the way I think about it.

1. I consider lone speed to be a race where a single horse generally likes to go for the lead and then gets a clear lead as you expected.

2. I consider speed of the speed to be a race where there are several horses that like to go to the lead, but one is faster/classier than the others. That one controls the action while racing comfortably (even if not clear) while the others are struggling to stay with him. The chasers usually tire, sometimes badly.

3. A duel would be the same as #2, expect the leaders are all of similar speed and quality and they are all working way too hard on the lead given their ability. They all usually tire.

Since form and the break out of the gate are variables, it's not always clear before the race who will show speed or who the speed of the speed might be. Sometimes you don't know until after the fact and get to see how the race develops.

[socialnetworker]

Originally Posted by EQUIPACE

Hello PA Folk,
Long time no post. But I'm still here after all these years and getting over some health issues. I'm still programming and using my Excel formulated calcs and spreadsheets to find winners still again.

socialnetworker's post is on the money!

He may be right here...
"Only 2 E type horses have won the Derby in the past 20 years without being disqualified/using PEDs: SuperSaver and War Emblem, and both of those had demonstrated Late Pace capacity among the Top 4 in their fields."

It brings back a great memory and day of playing the Derby back in 2002. Internet wagering was rare for the most part, if possible at all. What is interesting was his reply above about War Emblem in the 2002 Derby. I was living in Denver then and my Pony playing friends were still on the (West Coast) SF Bay Area Where I Grew Up). We had spent hours on the phone and realized War Emblem not only had Early Speed, which we labeled as the best Front End Speed but also had some late kick potential at the same time. We all came to that agreement. I think we were using Sartin style figures too. The next day, we went to the local simulcast facilities to make our bets. Our confidence levels were ridiculously high that day too. Well we all knocked out of the park and I memorialized my Win and Place tickets before I drove back over and cashed them in. Of course I wished I had really loaded up. But I can assure you Mama was quite happy when I said lets go to dinner.

So what is the point here? Its to remind players how rare it is to see horses with the easy lead on the front that might also have good closing figs at the late end too.

This angle does still exist, and when it does, I still usually get a good payoff when I'm right!

Early Speed, Front Runners, or whatever term you use to describe them, even Lone Speed that also have top late or closing figures as well are a great bet, especially when they are overlays. They don't come up that often, but when they do, I usually bet them or at least key them in exotics regardless of odds! I still have this frame hanging in my office... Hopefully the picture link works! https://imgur.com/a/g1sWFGF

That was definitely a score to remember. Glad to hear you are still plugging away...into your spreadsheet, that is!

[socialnetworker]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is the way I think about it.

1. I consider lone speed to be a race where a single horse generally likes to go for the lead and then gets a clear lead as you expected.

2. I consider speed of the speed to be a race where there are several horses that like to go to the lead, but one is faster/classier than the others. That one controls the action while racing comfortably (even if not clear) while the others are struggling to stay with him. The chasers usually tire, sometimes badly.

3. A duel would be the same as #2, expect the leaders are all of similar speed and quality and they are all working way too hard on the lead given their ability. They all usually tire.

Since form and the break out of the gate are variables, it's not always clear before the race who will show speed or who the speed of the speed might be. Sometimes you don't know until after the fact and get to see how the race develops.

Exactly, it troubles me when people engage in "affirming the consequence" reasoning...like "This horse got the lead so he was The Lone Speed." Umm, no, he was "the Pacesetter."

[socialnetworker]

Originally Posted by headhawg

While Lone Speed scenarios undoubtedly exist, try to predict one. It's not really much different than trying to predict any pace scenario in a given race. Do you ever see anyone report the accuracy of their pace scenario predictions? I don't think I ever have, and it's probably because they wouldn't look too good after the races have been run.

Maybe CJ from TimeformUS can indicate whether they report any stats on the accuracy of their Pace Predictions.

[MJC922]

I think what most people (handicappers) really mean with lone speed before a race is run is a lone frontrunner in the race. So it's more of a running styles thing. After the race is run however regardless of how many frontrunning types there were in the race I may still say a horse ended up being lone speed based upon a variety of things, other horses had trouble at the break, other horses were not 'sent' for whatever reason. Very often lone frontrunner is a botched advantage anyway, because every rider sees it pre-race someone inevitably sends 'just because' and/or the frontrunner quickly opens up a couple lengths but then gives away the advantage by trying to logjam everyone backing down the pace so much so that 6 horses are within a length at the quarter pole and then it gets outfinished by at least one of them.

For the triple crown races best to just forget about pace scenarios and expect Bob to be in front with a moderate pace. It's almost always a moderate pace when he's in front, I won't get into conspiracy theory as to why that is uncannily the case. When we have like 19 horses in a race that workout every day in 46-47 yet in the real race we have 17 of them that are going anywhere from 47-50, why are we bothering handicapping? Just prop up a cardboard cutout of Bob in the winners circle every year and hang some roses on it.

[LemonSoupKid]

Yes I agree with the lone speed definition generally, as explained by MJ

[Tom]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Yes I agree with the lone speed definition generally, as explained by MJ

Hey man, long time no see.
Welcome back!

[socialnetworker]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I think what most people (handicappers) really mean with lone speed before a race is run is a lone frontrunner in the race. So it's more of a running styles thing. After the race is run however regardless of how many frontrunning types there were in the race I may still say a horse ended up being lone speed based upon a variety of things, other horses had trouble at the break, other horses were not 'sent' for whatever reason. Very often lone frontrunner is a botched advantage anyway, because every rider sees it pre-race someone inevitably sends 'just because' and/or the frontrunner quickly opens up a couple lengths but then gives away the advantage by trying to logjam everyone backing down the pace so much so that 6 horses are within a length at the quarter pole and then it gets outfinished by at least one of them.

My point is that we are talking about two different things, and should use different terminology for each scenario.

"LONE SPEED" is like an ADJECTIVE describing the qualities of a Horse BEFORE the race. There really should only be ONE of them in the race in order to use the term properly.

"Alone on the lead" or "Loose the Lead" or "Sprinted Clear" or "Shook Loose" or "Set a rapid pace" are ADVERBS describing the action once the race has started.

You could have several horses in a race who might be capable of "Shaking Loose" or "Sprinting Clear" or "Grabbing the Lead."

I think today's results of the Preakness demonstrated pretty convincingly that Medina Spirit is NOT a LONE SPEED type of horse...and he really did not deserve that designation in the Derby.

This question had caused debate a couple of times in groups where I belong...

due to people claiming - after the fact - that they backed Medina Spirit in the Derby "because he was the Lone Speed" - whereas I say they backed "a Contender for the Lead" who benefitted from either profound Racing Luck or outright cheating.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by socialnetworker

...due to people claiming - after the fact - that they backed Medina Spirit in the Derby "because he was the Lone Speed" - whereas I say they backed "a Contender for the Lead" who benefitted from either profound Racing Luck or outright cheating.

Even blind squirrels have winning tickets every now and then.

[kyle r]

You got everything right. I have no idea what anyone can disagree with here.