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Old 05-09-2021, 10:04 AM   #1
socialnetworker
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How do YOU define "Lone Speed"?

I'm seeing debates about whether Medina Spirit was the "Lone Speed" in the Derby.

I think some folks have difficulty distinguishing between Terms/Concepts like Lone Speed, Pacesetter, Frontrunner, Speed of the Speed, Main Speed, Controlling Speed, Loose on the Lead, Alone on the Lead, and Fastest Early Speed Rating.

Lone Speed has been used to denote a horse - BEFORE A RACE has been run - who has a Pace Advantage over the rest of the field and is a candidate for an "Uncontested Lead" or being "Loose on the Lead."

There can only be ONE Lone Speed in a Race...by definition. If you have multiple Frontrunners, that is a different race scenario...with different Pace implications.

It should refer to a scenario where only ONE horse in the race appears to be likely to assume the lead....and who is likely to maintain that lead to the Finish and WIN the race.

Once a race has started, we can use modifiers like "Alone on the Lead" or "Loose on the Lead" to describe horses who have achieved an "Uncontested Lead" and are CLEARLY ahead of the pack - even if they were not labeled E-type runstyles.

Before the Race, if we have several horses with E-type Runstyles with comparable Pace Figures, the horse with the fastest Pace Figures is NOT "THE Lone Speed."

He might be the "Speed of the Speed" or "The Main Speed" or he may emerge as the Controlling Speed, or the Pacesetter due to the Tactics of the connections.

He might even "shake loose" and end up "Alone on the Lead."

Certainly there are races where there are ZERO E-types of Frontrunners.

Horses with Pressing Syles or even S-types with Early Pace advantages might "Take the Lead" and become the Pacesetter or the Controlling Speed.

That is a Tactical issue that emerges during a race, but they are NOT "The Lone Speed."

In my mind, Medina Spirit was NOT the "Lone Speed" in the Derby.

He certainly was never "Loose on the Lead" or even "alone" - he was the Pacesetter - but for most of the race was not ahead by more than Half a Length.

He was not the only E-type horse in the race, nor did he have the Top Early Pace ratings, but he was tied for the top E1 Call Rating. He did have a positional advantage, but there were 4 other horses in the race with faster E2 lifetime ratings, and Highly Motivated had matched his best E2 rating.

He had only had the lead at the first call ONCE IN HIS LIFE.
That does not sound like a "Lone Speed" horse to me.

John Velasquez stated that his strategy was to Assume the Lead, but if somebody wanted to go faster - to LET THEM TAKE THE LEAD.

That is NOT a descriptor of a LONE SPEED horse.

The Lone Speed horse DOMINATES a field on the Front End - or dies trying.

Medina Springs did not "dominate" the field.

His biggest threats were knocked out of contention at the break. The horse who was pressuring him the most - Soup and Sandwich - was a definite contender and had to be pulled up with a soft palate problem. Who knows what would have happened if he had been able to pressure MS past the halfway mark?

I am troubled by portrayal of Medina Springs as some tough warrior with human attributes of "courage" and "heart" who refuses to be passed.

It's easy to not be passed when you're running in 5 and 6 horse fields with a bunch of also rans.

In fact, the horse was indeed passed in the San Felipe, by Dream Shake - who then flattened out - which had nothing to do with Medina Spirit's "spirit."

I'm fine if before the Derby you labeled MS as the potential Controlling Speed , or as a contender to set the pace.

But when your connections - before the race - have decided to let somebody else have the Lead if they want it - you are NOT a "Lone Speed" type of horse.

Lone Speed type horses decide the outcome EARLY by making sure they are the Lone horse on the lead.

That is NOT Medina Springs, and I doubt he ever will be Lone Speed in a Graded Stakes race where he does not inherit the lead due to Racing Luck.

I'm very open to hearing other opinions.

Ken Massa, of HTR, in his research defines the Lone Speed angle as when there is only one horse in the race with Quirin Speed Points greater than 5. That would be consistent with restricting the Lone Speed designation to races where there is an obvious advantage held by one single horse.
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Old 05-10-2021, 06:17 AM   #2
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Welcome Back btw. After an almost 7-year hiatus, your post deserves a response. To answer your question, I simply look at the PP's and if a horse has mostly 1 - 1's in their first two points of call, and no other horse shows more than a couple of 1's in their first two POC, then I'd call that the lone speed. No need(IMO) to look at the times, pace numbers, Quirin speed points, E, E/P, P, or S's to give you what someone else thinks about their speed. I'd say "mostly" 1's in their POC as more than half.

I wouldn't debate it, if another horse only shows 1-1's in his last two races, if it looks like a wake-up or trainer change,etc. That's what makes this game so great (difficult), we have to decide if he will contest our previous lone speed candidate.

Taking a quick look back at the Derby, I see maybe two or three candidates with 50% or more 1 - 1's in their POC. Caddo River, Concert Tour, and Midnight Bourbon. A few others are close if you only look at last three races, so I didn't see the KD as a lone speed race.

I don't see how after a race has been run, saying Medina Spirit was the only lone speed in the race. If one of the debaters made this claim prior to the race, then it might be worth knowing what his definition is for lone speed.
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Old 05-10-2021, 08:48 AM   #3
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For me, I would define lone speed as that horse that always shows a fast early pace and is able to sustain that fast pace from the start to the second call. Looking at the pace analysis of the race relative to the other entries, if I project this horse will be 1 length or more ahead at the 2nd call then I would think I could call him the speed of the race or the lone speed if you will.
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Old 05-10-2021, 09:29 AM   #4
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How do YOU define "Lone Speed"?

If there are 5 E7,s and only one can go 21.4 and all the rest go 22.1 to the quarter then there is a lone speed scenario.
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Old 05-10-2021, 10:32 AM   #5
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LOL, thanks for noticing! So far, not much has been worth talking about! Thanks for your response.
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Old 05-10-2021, 10:39 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theotherside View Post
If there are 5 E7,s and only one can go 21.4 and all the rest go 22.1 to the quarter then there is a lone speed scenario.
Thanks for your reply.
I see 5 E 7s as a "Speed of the speed" scenario, at best.

To me, Lone Speed implies a frontrunning horse who will find himself alone on an uncontested lead, not just setting the pace. IF there are 5 E7s, it's unlikely anybody is going to be loose on the lead, the other jocks are not going to just let the horse who is 2/5ths faster simply coast to the front....their horses would not have been designated as frontrunners with a preference for the lead...E/P horses might logically be expected to willingly take a back seat, though.
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Old 05-10-2021, 10:44 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Johnny V View Post
For me, I would define lone speed as that horse that always shows a fast early pace and is able to sustain that fast pace from the start to the second call. Looking at the pace analysis of the race relative to the other entries, if I project this horse will be 1 length or more ahead at the 2nd call then I would think I could call him the speed of the race or the lone speed if you will.
Thanks for your reply.

Medina Spirit had never been on the lead in his career other than for one race, and never what I would call "loose on the lead".

The fact that the jockey said his "plan was to go to the front - BUT if anybody wanted the lead they could have it" is not what I consider Lone Speed behavior.

Lone Speeds DOMINATE the pace, not chase....IMO....although I can see scenarios where one might play "Rope a dope" and let the cheap speed exhaust themselves and then pick up the pieces.
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Old 05-10-2021, 11:23 AM   #8
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What an excellent question.

I think it must be stated up front that any handicapper's definition of (pre-race) Lone ES is (obviously) only as good as it actually predicts who is going to the front.

Most people just have no mechanism for measuring how well their own personal approach actually works (or doesn't).

While I love Quirin ES Pts - what a wonderful tool - the issue is that when you look at horses that actually DID go to the front, the ones that are profitable are the ones who had very low Q-ES.

IOW, it is SURPRISE ES that has the most value.
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Old 05-10-2021, 01:05 PM   #9
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Since I am a stranger to Twitter, I haven't seen any of the debates alleging that Medina Spirit was the "lone speed" in the Derby. That's not how the race seemed to me. To me, it appeared that Medina Spirit would sit off the early lead. By my definition, "lone speed" means that a particular horse TOWERS over the other horses in early-speed ability...something that Medina Spirit clearly did not do, IMO.
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Old 05-10-2021, 01:53 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post

While I love Quirin ES Pts - what a wonderful tool - the issue is that when you look at horses that actually DID go to the front, the ones that are profitable are the ones who had very low Q-ES.

IOW, it is SURPRISE ES that has the most value.
Have said this many times. And, imo, it's a conflation of cause and effect. Some horses win because they made the lead-others make the lead because they are destined to win. And speed can be a by-product of sharpness or superiority. Not always an intrinsic (or predictable) trait.
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Old 05-10-2021, 11:21 PM   #11
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Thanks for your reply. I see 5 E 7s as a "Speed of the speed" scenario, at best.

A Early (has to have the lead to win) horse that can go 2/5ths faster to the 1/4 than the rest of the E's will have no problem having the lead and continuing on to the 1/2 mile as the other E's will have spent themselves by the 1/4 chasing him.When an E is forced to go faster than he can to the quarter then he is usually done by the half.The lead horse with the 2/5ths advantage at the 1/4 can go his normal time and will force any of the other E horses to run faster than they can and will be taken out of the race.E meaning need the lead horse of course.
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Old 05-11-2021, 02:20 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
What an excellent question.

I think it must be stated up front that any handicapper's definition of (pre-race) Lone ES is (obviously) only as good as it actually predicts who is going to the front.

Most people just have no mechanism for measuring how well their own personal approach actually works (or doesn't).

While I love Quirin ES Pts - what a wonderful tool - the issue is that when you look at horses that actually DID go to the front, the ones that are profitable are the ones who had very low Q-ES.

IOW, it is SURPRISE ES that has the most value.
Thanks for the reply, Mr. Schwartz.
Racehorses have a nasty habit of not doing precisely what everybody anticipates and believes they have a right to expect based upon past performances...and you're correct about where the greatest value is to be found...it's in those kind of races where unexpected Tactics and bad racing luck prevail.

Regardless, I believe that the term and concept of Lone Speed was not derived to denote the mere act of going to the front in a race.

We have other terms for that, such as "pacesetter" "controlling speed" and "going to the front" - now that you mention it ...

none of those terms captures the essence of THE LONE SPEED - who can be expected to dominate the pace, not merely set it....unless somebody wants to commit hari-kari on the front end.

Such horses have documented High Impact values in certain races at certain tracks...although they do not always have the best ROI.

Only 2 E type horses have won the Derby in the past 20 years without being disqualified/using PEDs: SuperSaver and War Emblem, and both of those had demonstrated Late Pace capacity among the Top 4 in their fields.

Neither Maximum Security nor Medina Springs matched the profiles of any previous Derby winners...

And Medina Springs had only once ever had the lead at the first call in a race.

Not the stuff of which Lone Speed reputations are built, nor deserved.
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Old 05-11-2021, 03:15 AM   #13
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A Early (has to have the lead to win) horse that can go 2/5ths faster to the 1/4 than the rest of the E's will have no problem having the lead and continuing on to the 1/2 mile as the other E's will have spent themselves by the 1/4 chasing him.When an E is forced to go faster than he can to the quarter then he is usually done by the half.The lead horse with the 2/5ths advantage at the 1/4 can go his normal time and will force any of the other E horses to run faster than they can and will be taken out of the race.E meaning need the lead horse of course.
I think we are entitled to call such a horse the "Speed of the Speed" or the "Horse with the fastest fractions" - but he's not THE LONE speed. Just the quickest in that particular matchup.

When you have FIVE E-types in a race who are all Frontrunners, by definition the term "Lone Speed" does not apply.

That term should be reserved for races where ONE single horse has a sizable advantage of the rest of the field.

A lot of people seem to make the logical error of "Affirming the Consequence" - which is what one does when one says:

"This horse achieved the Lead, so by definition he was THE LONE SPEED."

He might have ended up LOOSE on the lead, without ever having been the LONE speed.

I've seen plenty of S-type horses bolt to the front and wire a field, and plenty of E8 horses crash and burn in spite of having spectacular Early Pace Figure advantages.

The most recent example would be Brickyard Ride, race 8 at Santa Anita on May 7, a proven E 8 Grade 2 winner in a four horse field with nothing but Optional Claimer winners, who promptly finished dead last as the odds-on favorite whom almost everybody in the Country expected could not fail to wire the field..

The fact that he did NOT get a clear lead or keep it does NOT detract from his status as "THE LONE SPEED" in that race.

https://www.facebook.com/Horseranker/photos/a.2305617869703046/2931753800422780/?__cft__[0]=AZXNDHXALdbN_cs6YEVUh7fj9_XLv_XmCnFnORSCC_tYiybx_ nmKtS4C_Hrw5mzWPZsFLuH52yubb_xRDz5gUrFf3QflyjiJpMR Q-jxryW-8DhN5SuyI_nsgCtlTVRwNpX94QSkMIenPoUOsr4eRcWENMnDsx ZtWG0AnIc4xSttfwA&__tn__=EH-R

And merely surviving a pace duel to get to the front does not make a horse the Lone Speed either...

at least not in the lexicon of experts like Ken Massa at HTR, who collaborated with Barry Meadow on "The Skeptical Handicapper."

He reserves the terms for races where there is only ONE horse with Q Speed Points greater than 5.



Last edited by socialnetworker; 05-11-2021 at 03:18 AM.
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Old 05-11-2021, 12:01 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by socialnetworker View Post
Optional Claimer winners, who promptly finished dead last as the odds-on favorite whom almost everybody in the Country expected could not fail to wire the field..

The fact that he did NOT get a clear lead or keep it does NOT detract from his status as "THE LONE SPEED" in that race.

https://www.facebook.com/Horseranker/photos/a.2305617869703046/2931753800422780/?__cft__[0]=AZXNDHXALdbN_cs6YEVUh7fj9_XLv_XmCnFnORSCC_tYiybx_ nmKtS4C_Hrw5mzWPZsFLuH52yubb_xRDz5gUrFf3QflyjiJpMR Q-jxryW-8DhN5SuyI_nsgCtlTVRwNpX94QSkMIenPoUOsr4eRcWENMnDsx ZtWG0AnIc4xSttfwA&__tn__=EH-R

And merely surviving a pace duel to get to the front does not make a horse the Lone Speed either...




The flip side involves extremely patient jocks that strong arm "lone speeds" into a fake "duels" when they could easily establish clear command. The good rider Luis Rivera well exemplifies this.

Last edited by mountainman; 05-11-2021 at 12:02 PM.
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Old 05-11-2021, 12:20 PM   #15
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For me, lone speed is a horse capable of establishing a clear lead while running comfortably, i.e. not ridden all out to do so.
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