Worst Morning Line odds maker

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by SpotPlays

Is there a worse ML maker than the guy at Delaware Park? Every day huge underlays. Saturday, Hardest Core, tops of prime power, is 15-1 ML, goes off 5/2 and wins easy.

If properly schooled an excellent morning line can be gotten in a few minutes.

Mike

[Tara73]

I don't know who is the worse morning line person but I will say the NYRA morning line is exceptionally accurate.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Tara73

I don't know who is the worse morning line person but I will say the NYRA morning line is exceptionally accurate.

I think Jason Blewitt does the ML, and it is very good, for sure. In my opinion, all tracks should have good morning lines, but for a major circuit, it's embarrassing if the line is bad and it's poor customer service.

[overthehill]

I dont always believe that a horse getting bet down strongly from it ml odds means the ml makes bad odds. I would say that if the ml guy consistently gets the first two choices right thats pretty good. Having said that it has been disappointing for me to see that all too often the odds makers wil make horses 20 or 30-1 that look like contenders off their workouts. at los alamos some horse was a second time maiden and was 12 or 15-1 despite having worked out in 46 and change from the gate. i think it went off 8-5. or so.

one of the worst i have ever seen was last night at presque isle. admittedly the 5 year old mare had shown nothing in 5 previous starts and had an obcure trainer owner. i guess based on that it was listed at 30-1. But the mare was dropping into madn claiming 7,000, was adding blinkers for the first time and the trainer was 1 for 1 when adding blinkers.

and biggest But of all the horse had just work 1:12.1 breezing which was faster than any horse in the field had ever run! Sent off at 8-1 she opened lengths on the field at the start and was never headed. for me the moral is
to alway s look at every entrant in field.

[jballscalls]

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

I think you'd end up getting truer odds in some ways, especially in horizontal wagers in the later legs.

I do think people would possibly give more credence to 'public handicappers' selections and maybe use those as a guide?

Personally I've always thought the M/L is way overrated. You're getting one person, albeit generally a well-informed person's opinions of what the odds are going to be.

[pandy]

There has to be a morning line. There are many recreational gamblers who bet horses as if they were playing a slot machine and they use the morning line. I've gone into off track betting centers and seen many people who come in, grab a sheet that has the entries and line and bet off of that. Without a ML, they'd just bet another track.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by pandy

I think Jason Blewitt does the ML, and it is very good, for sure. In my opinion, all tracks should have good morning lines, but for a major circuit, it's embarrassing if the line is bad and it's poor customer service.

Eric Donovan is the regular morning line maker at NYRA

[pandy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Eric Donovan is the regular morning line maker at NYRA

Yes, that's right, very good.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

I think it is a great idea.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

...

I always thought it would be fun (albeit impossible with the standard software) to take a slightly different approach and offer the track morning line and then a couple of fair value lines from other sources side-by-side with the track line for a change of perspective and maybe even a little worthwhile customer assistance in their game.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

If properly schooled an excellent morning line can be gotten in a few minutes.

Mike

Not an entire card.

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

Bad idea

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by VeryOldMan

ML oddsmaker strikes me as a thankless job, particularly at the smaller tracks

You're correct, sir. And I call you friend. Was rated 12th most accurate in nation year before last, and am pretty sure prediction of faves now north of magical 70% mark. But everybody misses (badly) now and then-and the players ALWAYS notice.

And whomever unloads on chalks here can sometimes ruin my line.

Just for the record..I do it at my morning desk while multi-tasking, often in a hurry, and sometimes without the beyers. Apologies for that, but there just aren't enough hours....

[Pensacola Pete]

Back in the day, before simulcasting, he morning line maker at some tracks would deliberately make a standout horse much higher than it should have been. A horse that should have been 7/5 was listed at 8-1 or higher. Everybody who could read the Form knew that the line was whacked. But they took the bait. People would go out there, figuring that the horse's morning line meant that it would get off at 5-1 or higher. Of course, that didn't happen. The horse got banged down to even money anyway. Another trick was to list a standout horse from another track at 10-1, when the track knew the horse wouldn't show up for the race. Delta was notorious for doing this every few weekends in the 1970s. People from the Houston area would flock to the track, hoping for a big price on an easy winner, only to find the horse was scratched. The Louisiana Racing Commission finally put a stop to it when a horse's connections saw the horse listed in the Form for a Starter Handicap, phoned the Commission and told them that they never even entered the horse into the race. If memory serves, that horse's name was Roxborough Rocket.

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by mountainman

You're correct, sir. And I call you friend. Was rated 12th most accurate in nation year before last, and am pretty sure prediction of faves now north of magical 70% mark. But everybody misses (badly) now and then-and the players ALWAYS notice.

And whomever unloads on chalks here can sometimes ruin my line.

Just for the record..I do it at my morning desk while multi-tasking, often in a hurry, and sometimes without the beyers. Apologies for that, but there just aren't enough hours....

Hi mountainman

Congratulations on you ranking. Do you know the criteria that was used?

By the way, I enjoy your show. It is a pleasant experience... something very human and natural about it.

Thomas Sapio