Someone asked in another post how to identify losers. I'll share my 2 cents worth, though I may be overestimating my value
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I make over 90% of my plays in races I feel the favorite is vulnerable. The others are races where I think the favorite would have to fall down to lose AND I don't like the 2nd or 3rd choice to complete the exacta.
Here is a list I use to deem a favorite as "vulnerable". These only apply to favorites, not others I may bet.
I'd love to hear some new ideas on these favorites.
1. Weak pace or speed figures-with the proliferation of good speed figs today, most of these fall in the pace fig department.
2. Closers on dirt-I mean the deep closer type, and I don't care which track or distance, these are bad bets.
3. Frontrunners in turf routes-I mean E types, same as above, any distance or track.
4. Horses dropping in class off a good effort, helps to be familiar with the trainer.
5. Horses stretching out for the first time after being successful sprinting. Few horses are good at both.
6. Male horses whose last race was bad without an obvious excuse. I don't know why, but it doesn't seem to apply to females.
7. Horse claimed from a high % trainer to a low % trainer. It amazes me how fast these horses lose there "form".
8. Horses drawn outside with a short run to the turn. Know the track configuration where you play.
9. Stakes horses obviously prepping for later, especially in sprints.
10. Stakes horses entered at the last minute due to a change in plans. You have to follow the news to get these, but You and Bonapaw are 2 recent examples that jump to mind immediately.
CJ
My 2 Cents......
