Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

There are so many races with winners paying 3-1 or less and $10-20 exotic payoffs that to me it makes no sense to routinely indulge this or really only rarely at all. If I am on a fast track for older claimers in a short field and it looks like a wiffle ball HR I swing. With 3yo's going longer than usual in the mud=nope!

I wish I remember which year it was (because I would like to look up the race), but several years ago I looked at the card on a major stakes day at Belmont and the first race was one of those races where there was an obvious 2 to 5 shot who was going to win and an obvious horse who wasn't as good as the favorite but towered over the rest of the field. I put a big bet on the cold exacta. It paid $7 after the 2 to 5 shot won by about 4 lengths over the obvious second horse, with another gap back to the rest of them. I was quite happy.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I wish I remember which year it was (because I would like to look up the race), but several years ago I looked at the card on a major stakes day at Belmont and the first race was one of those races where there was an obvious 2 to 5 shot who was going to win and an obvious horse who wasn't as good as the favorite but towered over the rest of the field. I put a big bet on the cold exacta. It paid $7 after the 2 to 5 shot won by about 4 lengths over the obvious second horse, with another gap back to the rest of them. I was quite happy.

I've done this! And the placer doesn't have to tower over the rest of the field. Sometimes during the day I will say pick one to finish 2nd to the heavy chalk. Make sure it pays at least $20 and wager a win bet amount on that combo. It has won many of whole days!

But it doesn't happen a ton. I started learning how to play in this manner in 1997 at my hometown track River Downs. Wanting to be the master of my home court I started wagering heavily on $12 exactas because there weren't many options!

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by papillon

My knock against both Magnum Moon and Justify are the same, I am not convinced they are exceptionally fast horses, but MM kept winning, until he didn't.

I think the time will come when Magnum Moon is gonna surprise a lot of people. If he keeps racing.

[burnsy]

You spread for the pari mutuels score of course. The outliers are where the money is. Always have something else cooking when that much money is going one way. Simple math. That's the way I've hit huge pic tickets on Belmont day. Big Brown was the "all" button and Smarty Jones I used Birdstone with Smarty, one horse but I spread in the earlier legs. A bunch of people up here hit on Birdstone because people had seen him work and he was another one of those horses that loved the NYRA circuit.


It didn't work when AP finally upset the apple cart but that took 3 decades.


I've since sold my boat I got that summer. But I was going to call it Big Brown.


If its 95 degrees like it was when he pulled up, you hit that all button. Its been very, very good to me in races like this......not just on Belmont Day.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by burnsy

You spread for the pari mutuels score of course. The outliers are where the money is. Always have something else cooking when that much money is going one way. Simple math. That's the way I've hit huge pic tickets on Belmont day. Big Brown was the "all" button and Smarty Jones I used Birdstone with Smarty, one horse but I spread in the earlier legs.

It can be costly to punch all depending on your ticket ... who are your 2 beside Justify if you aren't hitting ALL?

[JemFan777]

I probably won't bet on the Belmont, but I do remember betting on American Pharoah to win the Preakness and the Belmont back in 2015, which made the Triple Crown win even more epic for me, as it was the first time in my life that a horse won the Triple Crown. However, I still hope Justify wins it all!

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by AndyC

You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?

I don’t have the balls to toss him in the horizontal bets, but I will in the vertical. One reason I’m playing him in the Pick 3, Pick 4 & pick 5, is because I’ll be watching the race with my wife. If I tell her we’re still alive but I don’t have Justify in the last leg, and he wins, I’ll be in the doghouse.

As far as the vertical bets here’s what I’m doing. I’m predicting that Justify will come in 3rd or 4th. For the exacta, I’m going to toss him and pick five , tossing the Preakness runners because of the shorter rest. Of the five I settle on, I’ll bet an exacta box, in addition I’ll bet any of the five that are over 10-1 to win.

The 2014 (Chrome) Belmont exacta paid 174-1. The 2008 (Big Brown) exacta paid 330-1. Any bet with Justify in isn’t going to pay much. Why bother with crappy saver bets? There are other races on the undercard Saturday. The Belmont Stakes isn’t the be all and end all. If Justify wins, I won't kick myself; that’s what happens when you play the horses. I’ll take the loss and move on. Although I would kick myself if I missed a big score.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Redboard

.

The 2014 (Chrome) Belmont exacta paid 174-1. The 2008 (Big Brown) exacta paid 330-1. Any bet with Justify in isn’t going to pay much. Why bother with crappy saver bets? There are other races on the undercard Saturday. The Belmont Stakes isn’t the be all and end all. If Justify wins, I won't kick myself; that’s what happens when you play the horses. I’ll take the loss and move on. Although I would kick myself if I missed a big score.

This is similar to my strategy this year. I'll even toss him from the horizontals unless I have a decent odds horse or two to pair him with. If he beats me then so be it. My philosophy is when I see a vulnerable chalk I make a play against. I mainly reserve use of a saver if I have some odds underneath to work with.

[Ribot Roboto]

Why bother with crappy saver bets?

You said a mouthful right there. It’s a little different in tris and supers but an odds on favorite in the exacta is big whoop.

[f2tornado]

I gave this some more thought and research...

Only three post time favorites won the race in last 20 years.
Seven of the last eight odds-on favorites tanked.
One one favorite hit the exacta in past decade.

American Pharoah was the primary exception.

Since I don't believe Justify could carry AP's saddle cloth, most of my wagers will leave Justify out of the exacta.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I gave this some more thought and research...

Only three post time favorites won the race in last 20 years.
Seven of the last eight odds-on favorites tanked.
One one favorite hit the exacta in past decade.

American Pharoah was the primary exception.

Since I don't believe Justify could carry AP's saddle cloth, most of my wagers will leave Justify out of the exacta.

The Belmont Stakes cannot be handicapped, IMO, based on traditional handicapping factors, thus the public has not done well at betting the race.

12 furlongs on dirt is like asking Usain Bolt to run a mile in the Olympics.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

most of my wagers will leave Justify out of the exacta.

Mine, too.

[fellowmen]

The year Touch Gold rolled by Bafferts Silver Charm to foil his first shot at the crown iy really taught me what stamia was. It was my 10th year in the game and I told by a nice old man at the track (as i sat there day after day watching my husband give away all of our money to the people on the other side of the windows) that we (the Americans) breed for speed at the dismay of the purists. And the horses are more fragile because of it. Well i didnt see it myself. No matter the distance it looked the same to me. A bunch of horses running around circle. But when my beautiful gray horse hit a wall that day in Elmont i got it. But most of the Belmont's since seem to have been dominated by front runners. Which I still dont understand. But as good as this big red horse is' I dont think he will rise anywhere near to the class of another big red horse that ran around the same circle some 36 years. Ive been let down by yhis game to many times to let myself get excited about it. Anyway it can burn you it will. When i over hear grown men crying about about a beat bad every 3rd friday of the month when my house fills with smoke and i can finally get to sleep at 5am, i laugh to myself and think they obviously dont play "the game". Cause ive witnessed some very peculiar sinking feeling in your gut beat bads over the years. This year? This one has heart obviously. The way that race was run most horses would have gave way. But he dug in. It had to of taken something out of him though. And with a rabbit entered and a big bullseye on the riders back and the extra distance? As Dana Carvey says "aint gonna happen" but it will be another let down cause my husband will probaly throw him right off the board and probaly come out with both barrels blazing in hopes of a huge score and leave him right off his super trifecta. Cause ive heard him say before betting a chalk in the 3 or 4 slot of a ticket would be akin to taking his shoes off and setting them on the kitchen table or flicking a cigarette butt onto thr couch. its just something you don"t do. My pick? 8-1-4-3-9

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by fellowmen

Cause ive heard him say before betting a chalk in the 3 or 4 slot of a ticket would be akin to taking his shoes off and setting them on the kitchen table or flicking a cigarette butt onto thr couch. its just something you don"t do. My pick? 8-1-4-3-9

I think it could be a good play to put short odds in the three and four. Especially in a race like this. But I think Justify will win. Betting against him his costly to me for this reason -can't "justify" having him in 2nd but not covering in the 3 or four if he does lose it.