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View Poll Results: Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. 19 22.89%
No, I'm gonna use him but spread 28 33.73%
Toss 33 39.76%
Doesn't run 3 3.61%
Voters: 83. This poll is closed

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Old 05-20-2018, 01:59 PM   #16
f2tornado
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I'll gladly play against 4/5 chalk in the Belmont. Excluding AP, 9 of the last Triple Crown bids were spoiled by a horse that did not compete in all three legs, what Chrome's former owner called "cheaters". I'll look for fresh legs like Hofburg, Vino Rosso, or even Blended Citizen.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:02 PM   #17
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War Emblem was a form cycle issue and not a speed horse going to his nose out of the break, first take I have heard like that.
I am not directly comparing the two. I am saying the most likely result is he finishes up the track in 3 weeks like War Emblem, rather than, say, beaten by a short margin a la Real Quiet or Funny Cide.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:04 PM   #18
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I am not directly comparing the two. I am saying the most likely result is he finishes up the track in 3 weeks like War Emblem, rather than, say, beaten by a short margin a la Real Quiet or Funny Cide.
up the track, I think I would take that bet, what kind of odds can I get? What is up the track, back half of the field?
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:15 PM   #19
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Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.
There won't be a horse like GM who will be a threat like that, with the unknowns of "what if" GM can keep up and Mike using more of the horse than necessary to keep position. He can have whatever timing he wants in better conditions. It probably won't be foggy either and hopefully not a sloppy, dangerous track again.

Justify likes to lead, he's got a will for it, it's not a problem. Unlike the closers who lack foundation and still learning to want to pass horses. Even the tested My Boy Jack doesn't like to pass horses. A closer isn't going to beat Justify. So far, Bravazo is the only one who can beat him in the Belmont. and any early runner/presser trying keep Justify's pace is going to be too tired to pass him.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:16 PM   #20
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up the track, I think I would take that bet, what kind of odds can I get? What is up the track, back half of the field?
The track offers bets (trifectas and supers) where I can capitalize on this. I plan to.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:22 PM   #21
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EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.
mud is fine, the issue is if hoof crack and bruise that delayed his start until February and then that he had to run the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby on.

He was fortunate to have it properly repaired before the Preakness. Belmont may be his last race, or they may give him an opportunity to really show that he's bounced back and wants to run in the Classic.

Think about Ax Man and co for the Travers from BB.

He has not been thriving. Only good thing you can say is that he's so talented that he can beat these guys at 80%, and he's so tough that he hasn't quit.

His preakness was like trying to win a handicapping contest with the worst migraine of your life, or a quarterback trying to win a game with a mild separated shoulder.

Look out for his pre-Belmont works.

Here is Pharoah's pre-Belmont work. Date was Mon June 1st 2015 = so you are targeting maybe Monday June 4th 2018 for the same general type of pattern
starts at about 4:30 on the video and put in a solid breeze.

If you see this from Justify, expect that his form has improved from Post-Derby/Preakness to Pre-Belmont. If you don't see any works, then there is more of a question as to whether or not he is thriving again.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:35 PM   #22
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mud is fine, the issue is if hoof crack and bruise that delayed his start until February and then that he had to run the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby on.

He was fortunate to have it properly repaired before the Preakness. Belmont may be his last race, or they may give him an opportunity to really show that he's bounced back and wants to run in the Classic.

Think about Ax Man and co for the Travers from BB.

He has not been thriving. Only good thing you can say is that he's so talented that he can beat these guys at 80%, and he's so tough that he hasn't quit.

His preakness was like trying to win a handicapping contest with the worst migraine of your life, or a quarterback trying to win a game with a mild separated shoulder.

Look out for his pre-Belmont works.

Here is Pharoah's pre-Belmont work. Date was Mon June 1st 2015 = so you are targeting maybe Monday June 4th 2018 for the same general type of pattern
starts at about 4:30 on the video and put in a solid breeze.

If you see this from Justify, expect that his form has improved from Post-Derby/Preakness to Pre-Belmont. If you don't see any works, then there is more of a question as to whether or not he is thriving again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHlkb6G7f4
How do you know justify is 80 percent. Just seems kind of arbitrary to me
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:48 PM   #23
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It's just sensible to consider that Justify can lose if he doesn't recover and will definitely win if his hoof bruise hasn't worsened (or if there is a sign that it doesn't bother him). Robert gives great advice

Justify is definitely an adrenaline junkie who can tough out most minor problems. So foot problem or not it's the work out that will tell us how he'll perfom come Belmont

Still would only modestly bet against him. If I didn't learn my lesson from HOPING a longer odds horse could win the derby I would've lost money again.

I'm expecting Justify in fine form, but still betting Bravazo in the win spot at least one tri ticket. It's just better for my mind, only thing worse than losing is not playing a horse I like out of uncertainty and doubt then having it come through like I thought in the first place.
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Old 05-20-2018, 04:05 PM   #24
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:18 PM   #25
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I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:22 PM   #26
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I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.
Great points.
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Old 05-20-2018, 07:43 PM   #27
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Voted doesn't run

But I wish "40th day of rain" was an option, then I would have voted wins the TC and is the only slop horse in history to never have it held against him.

I'm not sure I would say any horse ran well yesterday. I was happy with Tenfold, he was my pick, but he still only caught the rump end of a 97 Beyer, damning with faint praise if ever there was. I was happy for Assmussen. You have to like him just for his hair.
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:28 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.
Definitely more impressed with justify. Stronger competition. And while pimlico was speed favoring. Atleast he was pressed. American pharaoh had it all his own way after the derby. Reguardless though he was great
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:30 PM   #29
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Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."
The horse was on fumes. His tank was empty. He looked terrible after the race. Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.

If the horse wasn't Justify, "almost beaten" wouldn't be a controversial criticism. It doesn't matter if you know where the finish line is, you still have to get there, and with another 2 lengths, he almost certainly wouldn't have.

He wasn't Affirmed battling Alydar or Sunday Silence battling Easy Goer down the stretch. He was battling a horse running against his preferred style, a horse likely uncomfortable from the get go, who still only lost by a length despite that fact.

He is a horse that has on three tracks now in three states run over a 1:36 mile, and has been physically exhausted at the end of every race. In these three races, the closer he's gotten to 1:36, the more exhausted he's gotten. He isn't even displaying the engery distribution of a top miler.

He's winning. He deserves praise for that just as did Magnum Moon. But I saw the horse I've thought he was all along yesterday, which is a good, honest horse. The results yesterday, give credence to those who view the Derby as a race with umpteen caveats. Yesterday, gives credence to those who said beating Bolt O'Oro was perhaps not the best measure of greatness.
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:31 PM   #30
Andy Asaro
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I'm stunned that the most popular vote is to toss.

The latest twitter poll results are in but I did it a little differently. These are with 108 votes.

25% Yes, I'll single him.

65% No, I'll spread

10% Doesn't run
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