fig makers question re: off the board runners

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

No, the photo finish system does.

And the actual finishing times for all the horses are not given to us in the past performances because...?

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And the actual finishing times for all the horses are not given to us in the past performances because...?

I have no idea. Tradition I guess.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

I'm curious if any of the figure makers observe or adjust for horses who finish up the track and who obviously stopped persevering at the 16th pole or before.

Most of the time horses like that won't have a contending figure next time anyway unless they drop in class sharply. I'm not sure if it makes sense to try to adjust for it, but I think it makes sense to put it in your trip notes if it was especially extreme.

[sjk]

The way I see it you are not trying to understand how bad a number the horse ran in that race but rather what sort of number he would have run if his energy was distributed properly.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by sjk

The way I see it you are not trying to understand how bad a number the horse ran in that race but rather what sort of number he would have run if his energy was distributed properly.

Agreed, that's the tougher question to answer.

To me though, once a horse is so gassed it has to be eased, I think the formulas for trying to make those kids of pace adjustments start to break down. When it's less extreme those formulas work better.

At a certain point I think you are probably better off looking at the chart and seeing how other horses with similar ability that had a similar trip ran relative to their own typical figures. If you decide the pace was extreme, I'd just toss the race out and look at prior figures. If other horses with similar ability held up well, then I'd be more apt to think the horse went off form. Any estimate is going to be kind of fuzzy.

[sjk]

I don't know that it is as hopeless as you believe to calculate adjustments.

At a certain point additional lengths behind don't provide much information about the horse's ability under ideal circumstances.

The early part of the race where he ran well does provide relevant data and I don't see why you would be eager to toss it.

[railbird]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And the actual finishing times for all the horses are not given to us in the past performances because...?

The pp generator with brisnet gives the actual running time for every horse .

Check out the options pull down .( I'm pretty sure it's the options button , it has been a while )

[cj]

Originally Posted by railbird

The pp generator with brisnet gives the actual running time for every horse .

Check out the options pull down .( I'm pretty sure it's the options button , it has been a while )

Those aren't official times from the photo company, they are educated guesses according to the beaten lengths and knowing the formula used. We have the same at TimeformUS and DRF does with Formulator as well.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by sjk

The early part of the race where he ran well does provide relevant data and I don't see why you would be eager to toss it.

I don't toss it.

I combine in ways that are very similar to Timeform. The only major difference is that I also look at race flow data and comparative trips to compliment what the fractions say.

When it's extreme, I think it's still useful information. I just don't use the same automated formulas because they often seem to stop working at extremes where the losers of savage duels back up badly and get eased. I prefer to get more comparative and look at back figures.