BC Mile - US win?

[horses4courses]

The Euros are gung ho on Excelebration, with a smaller band of support for Moonlight Cloud. It's the Frankel factor at work.
Exceleb has been runner-up to the great horse so many times, that it's logical to anoint him in any race that Henry Cecil's champion does not go to post. Not so fast, please......

I would argue that there is another European miler who should be mentioned in relation to tomorrow's BC Mile. That horse is Cityscape.
There is a line through Cityscape to the top three favorites in this race. Exceleb was impressive in beating him two weeks ago at Ascot, and is normally at least a few lengths the better of the two. Moonlight Cloud was closing fast in her first attempt at a mile when she finished just over a length behind Exceleb and close to level with Cityscape at Deauville in August. She has since won narrowly in a top class mile race in Paris.
Good credentials, for sure, plus the connections of former great Goldikova.

Wise Dan's encounter with Cityscape was at Woodbine in Sept.
On that occasion, it's reasonable to say Wise Dan won very easily.
Cityscape had no excuses except, perhaps, that the ground was firm.
Does that make Wise Dan a logical favorite tomorrow? Maybe, but........
This is Santa Anita. Local horses definitely have a home field edge here.
Obviously, and Mr. Commons are not without chances. Jeranimo and Suggestive Boy are, also, locals who could fire.
Wilcox Inn, while a shipper, is a game horse who has had a light campaign this year. He is capable of hitting the board.
Animal Kingdom is the only US horse that I discount - too many negatives there.

To conclude, I believe that warm temperatures, firm ground, and a good group of speedy,
US-trained, turf milers will prove too much for the Euros this time.
I will be playing exactas, and trifectas, with US horses in the top two slots.
Hopefully, I can catch a price in there.

I just don't see a Goldikova in there this year..........

[Humph]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

The Euros are gung ho on Excelebration, with a smaller band of support for Moonlight Cloud. It's the Frankel factor at work.
Exceleb has been runner-up to the great horse so many times, that it's logical to anoint him in any race that Henry Cecil's champion does not go to post. Not so fast, please......

I would argue that there is another European miler who should be mentioned in relation to tomorrow's BC Mile. That horse is Cityscape.
There is a line through Cityscape to the top three favorites in this race. Exceleb was impressive in beating him two weeks ago at Ascot, and is normally at least a few lengths the better of the two. Moonlight Cloud was closing fast in her first attempt at a mile when she finished just over a length behind Exceleb and close to level with Cityscape at Deauville in August. She has since won narrowly in a top class mile race in Paris.
Good credentials, for sure, plus the connections of former great Goldikova.

Wise Dan's encounter with Cityscape was at Woodbine in Sept.
On that occasion, it's reasonable to say Wise Dan won very easily.
Cityscape had no excuses except, perhaps, that the ground was firm.
Does that make Wise Dan a logical favorite tomorrow? Maybe, but........
This is Santa Anita. Local horses definitely have a home field edge here.
Obviously, and Mr. Commons are not without chances. Jeranimo and Suggestive Boy are, also, locals who could fire.
Wilcox Inn, while a shipper, is a game horse who has had a light campaign this year. He is capable of hitting the board.
Animal Kingdom is the only US horse that I discount - too many negatives there.

To conclude, I believe that warm temperatures, firm ground, and a good group of speedy,
US-trained, turf milers will prove too much for the Euros this time.
I will be playing exactas, and trifectas, with US horses in the top two slots.
Hopefully, I can catch a price in there.

I just don't see a Goldikova in there this year..........

some valid points , no question , but there are lines of form - the beating frankel gave to canford cliffs - which suggest that they might not have been a lot between goldikova and excelebration.

[nearco]

If this race were any place else in the world with a big open turf course, I'd say advantage Excelebration. However what will get Excel beaten tomorrow will more than likely be his jockey. Don't have great confidence in young Joseph in traffic on an American turf course. Just look what happened to Richard Hughes and Buick on Friday.

[hencicleva]

I was listening to a William Hill podcast that said Excelebration had never run a final furlong in less than 12 secs and that he has no chance given the way the races are run here on turf.
My beef with Turf races in the Breeders Cup are that they seem to be a lottery of troubled trips and I wouldn't take Wise Dan either at his likely short starting price.

[Tom]

For a Euro's point of view, I went to Nick Mordin's site, looking for his comments, and he doesn't like Excelebration at all here.

[Valuist]

I was listening to a podcast the other night from the UK, with a handicapper named Nick Mordin and a couple other UK handicappers. The general feeling was that Excelebration was over the top, and that if Wise Dan is to be beaten, it will be by Moonlight Cloud.

They also said they love Trailblazer in the Turf.

Edit: I just saw Tom's post, and he apparently listened to the same podcast.

[UK View]

Originally Posted by Tom

For a Euro's point of view, I went to Nick Mordin's site, looking for his comments, and he doesn't like Excelebration at all here.

Yeah, Nick Mordin lol. Tipped a succession of losers on Day 1!!

Not sure how anyone would know if Excelebration is over the top other than connections?

[Striker]

Willcox Inn

WPS

[johnhannibalsmith]

I haven't picked a winner in two days, well one, but it came by way of using almost a third of the field. I have to admit that I did sort of like Animal Kingdom a bit if he was going to be 25-1 like he should be. Between the distance and the fact that he'd be fresh off the bench, I didn't think it was out of the realm of possibility that he could fire a huge race in a field like this. But predictably, he's totally unplayable at the price and it makes for a good excuse to not try to make a case for him.

I ended up thinking that the play in here is Mr. Commons. He's in his element as much as anyone here at this trip and rarely runs a bad race, he just never fires a huge one either. Currently around 20-1 and if anyone doesn't quite find this trip and course to their liking and the pace is more than honest, I dunno, he seems like as good a stab as any at the price.

[Robert Fischer]

wise dan $1k shw

[Robert Fischer]

$20 ex bx

[thespaah]

I like Animal Kingdom here. Along with the Filly Moonlight Cloud..
For some odd reason, fillies, especially European fillies, have done well in this event.
Think Miesque and Royal Heroine.
As a matter of fact female horses do well in turf events. Gender of the bulk of the field notwithstanding.
And there goes Battaglia going out on a limb.....picks a favorite.

[Tom]

Mr. Commons
Wise Dan

[nearco]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I like Animal Kingdom here. Along with the Filly..
For some odd reason, fillies, especially European fillies, have done well in this event.
Think Miesque and Royal Heroine.
As a matter of fact female horses do well in turf events. Gender of the bulk of the field notwithstanding.

Six Perfections, Goldikova.
Moonlight Cloud is live here.

[Tee]

Obviously