*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Another profit today. Way to go.

Thanks Ed...I could win every day for the rest of my life, and on my death bed I just might have broken even over my many years of horse betting

Thought I'd try something new today at GGX. I used all 3 contenders from BEST-FIVE...and took the top 3 (handicapped by TR/JOCKEY & PLATINUM POWER) from EXOTIC BETS program, and looked for "unanimous" selections.

I then made win bets (on paper) if just one horse appeared- exacta boxes if there were 2 unanimous picks--or if all 3 contenders appeared on all 3...went with a trifecta box.

This is just an experiment--I didn't bet any. I have a feeling I'm just gonna end up with a bunch of favorites, or well-bet horses anyway. We'll see if there is any merit to this method, at all.

Race 1 1-2-3 tri box

Race 2 1-4 ex box

Race 3 6 Smilin Bandit 7-2 win bet

Race 4 1-3 ex box

Race 6 2-3-12 tri box

Race 7 6-8-9 tri box

Race 9 3-8 ex box
------------------------------------------------------------
In Race 4 I see NEVER THINK TWICE is 8-1 ML-- and in the

7th SAY YES SALLY is 12-1 ML...

so I'll go ahead and bet those two to win with real cash.

-NCG

[coacht]

Good luck today Greg


Keep up the hot strike

[oughtoh]

If I knew I could win most of the time I would start playing again. But living on a limited income now, just can't afford to chance it.

[green80]

ogh, they still take $2 bets

[oughtoh]

I have been doing 50 cent pk 3 or 4's, when I have bet, for a $1 bet. I usually do one a week.

[NorCalGreg]

My "experiment" was pretty grim...selecting the Best-Five contenders, and using the ones that had the Top Platinum Power and Tr/Jock top win %.

Here's what using the Top Platinum Power-by itself, did:
.

.

[NorCalGreg]

GGX 02/15

Race 4 KLAY NATION 6-1

Race 6 LIVE IT WELL 6-1

Race 8 UPO 10-1



Good Luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

GGX has their own version of Broberg, Diodoro, etc--dominating trainers.

Jonny Wong I believe was a long-time assistant of Jerry Hollendorfer--he's owns GGX and has been giving notice down in So Cal as a serious force to be reckoned with. As a result he's usually overbet. I'll either try to beat him--or just pass the race.

His 7th race shoe-in DR BAGLEY, was scratched. That race appears wide -open now.

Here's a few entries I'll take a flyer on today:

3RD BEYOND PLEASURE 6-1

5TH JUST LIKE FRED 7-2

6TH CLIFTON HOLLOW 8-1

7TH BERNARDOS HIDEWAY 20-1

8TH RUXIN 7-2

9TH FLORISTA 10-1

Good Luck,

-NCG

[mmmjjjj]

regarding how the board might play out

5TH JUST LIKE FRED 7-2----- might survive this price

6TH CLIFTON HOLLOW 8-1----- see him close to that price maybe 20 percent reduction

7TH BERNARDOS HIDEWAY 20-1--- should be able to get most of that ml

8TH RUXIN 7-2--- here you are going to go chalk almost 100 percent
and the #5 will drop at least half his ml from 20-1

9TH FLORISTA 10-1---- u will never survive this price as he will challenge to go third favourite here
can see realistically 5-1 or so

anyway hope it helps with analyzation

have stayed away from your thread because i didn't know the procedures as
sharkey 11 pointed out . not trying to piggy bank off ur thread or anything of the sort

did not mean to step on any toes and am not touting anything
just trying to give you a heads up on the layout for the future races


if u don't want the feed back just let me know thanks

[sharkey11]

if your trying to be decent then nobody will realy care . how ever heres an idea start your own thread an get all the custmers you can how ever your comments form your other post indcate to me that youll have your tout hat on again . by the way who are the pretenders like exatly names ! gl selling.

[MONEY]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

if your trying to be decent then nobody will realy care . how ever heres an idea start your own thread an get all the custmers you can how ever your comments form your other post indcate to me that youll have your tout hat on again . by the way who are the pretenders like exatly names ! gl selling.

I thought that mmmjjjj was trying to sell something, but after his last post I recognize him from another forum.
What he does is comment on some of the picks posted by good handicappers and sometimes adds a pick or two of his own.
He's O.K.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by MONEY

I thought that mmmjjjj was trying to sell something, but after his last post I recognize him from another forum.
What he does is comment on some of the picks posted by good handicappers and sometimes adds a pick or two of his own.
He's O.K.

MJ isn't bothering me, either. To be honest...it's not that hard to figure out who's ML is too high. Every once in a while, we all get fooled into passing on a wager, assuming odds will be too low--then later seeing the horse won and paid $9.40 or higher, to win.
Yesterday I passed on a JON WONG horse Justalittleviolent figuring the risk wasn't worth a $5.00 potential payoff. Yep, he paid a nice $9.40 of which I got nada.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

I seem to be in the middle of a losing streak. Horse betting isn't that much fun if you don't win...nahmsayin?

Sooo...I'll make just two wagers today @ the 'Gate:

3RD RACE MOONLIGHT BLUE 15-1

8TH RACE SIERRA DANCE 12-1

That's gonna do it...wish me luck

-NCG

[green80]

Greg,



I'm a big fan of the minimum odds setting that most ADW's have. I usually put my bets in with a minimum odds setting at 0 or -1 minutes to post ,depending on the track, and catch those that have low starting odds but go off at a decent price.


Matter of fact when I use Platinum some days I'll bet the all the top power horses and set the odds at around 10/1 or better. While most of the time the post time odds are too low, I have caught quite a few boxcar payoffs using this method. With just a little bit of handicapping you can refine this method quite a bit. Good luck.

[mmmjjjj]

greg

3RD RACE MOONLIGHT BLUE 15-1--

8TH RACE SIERRA DANCE 12-1

they both should be holding as there is no evidence in my simulations to
suggest otherwise

maybe 20 percent reduction on both but that's it

apologies for the last race at golden gate yesterday

gross error on my part ( doesn't usually happen)

and one more thing if u would have given me the heads up

on ( just a little violent horse) i would have reassured you that the price

would have held sway. and u could have bet him early with no problems.

but green already advised you on the bet minimum so that is another option

anyway its not that easy to read between the lines

good luck today