NEW RESEARCH PROJECT PICKS

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

you really have to love this game
I like the beast if it goes <2-1, you like it if it goes >=5/2

Actually, I just pulled the figure 5-2 out of the air, so to speak. I did that feeling that the system could possibly produce a 30% strike rate. And I knew that the average odds would be low so I wanted to keep the average above 3-1. Demanding a 5-2 minimum seemed a good way to do that. Now you might think that 5-2 is a little high when you're only looking to average 3-1. But my thinking process was that at a 2-1 cutoff, you might not get it. That's because a bunch of horses at or just above 2-1 coupled with the 5-2 shots and the 3-1's might drag you under a 3-1 minimum average.

But the key point here is that everything I'm doing revolves around the results we see because I am not doing any pre-data mining like you are. So while your 2-1 has a large data base behind it, my 5-2 is simply a guess. The problem is that I don't have the time to data-mine my own results, so I've been trying to coax someone out there to do it for me but so far no one has stepped up or if they have, they're keeping it to themselves.

Anyway, with these few plays that the system is generating, if I were playing it, I'd like to bet around $400 per selection to make it worthwhile. But I not sure that the $400 itself wouldn't affect the odds at some of these tracks. On the other hand, if you dropped the minimum odds to 2-1, you'd get more plays so you could reduce the bet size a bit. However, all this is a bit premature since the sample size doesn't mean a whole lot at the moment.

[markgoldie]

Results for Tues. 8/18:

Two horses qualified for play. They were:Rev Cayce OHIO R7 and Dinker's Valentine OHIO R10. Both lost.

That brings play total to 37 plays Return $125.20

Note: It was a good day for those that failed to qualify, however, 5 horses, 4 won with an aggregate payout of $23.90. 3 of the 4 winners were over 2-1 in odds.

Will post today's when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Wednesday 8/19/09:

PID R2 #6 Sparkling Lover ML 3/1
HOO R6 #7 Thought I Could ML 5/2
PEN R1 #7 Warren's Holiday ML 8/1
PID R5 #2 Lovely Senorita ML 4/1
HOO R7 #5 Solon Express ML 7/2
EVD R7 #8 Danger Present ML 4/1
EVD R9 #2 Shanghai Girl ML 6/1

That's it.

[formula_2002]

we both have;
HOO R6 #7 Thought I Could ML 5/2

now that I've removed my odds restrictions he can win at any price

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

we both have;
HOO R6 #7 Thought I Could ML 5/2

now that I've removed my odds restrictions he can win at any price

Just looked at him again since you're on him as well. He should win if he runs his race (and, of course, if nothing jumps out of the woodworks).

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Just looked at him again since you're on him as well. He should win if he runs his race (and, of course, if nothing jumps out of the woodworks).

he did!!
Hoosier Park - Race 6 Chart
# Win Place Show
7 $5.20 $3.60 $3.20

[markgoldie]

Results for Wed. 8/19:

Only one horse out of that total group qualified for play at odds of 5/2 or better which was EVD R7 #8 Danger Present who lost.

Running total now is 38 plays win return $125.80

[markgoldie]

Selections for Thursday 8/20/09:

OHIO R10 #3 Midnight Spiece ML 9/2
HOO R6 #1 Sir Dakota ML 7/2
PID R7 #2 Wise Answer ML 8/1
PID R8 #8 Gully Hill Road ML 3/1
PEN R6 #4 Lucky Citizen ML 3/1
CBY R6 #2 Voracious ML 7/2

That's it unfortunately.

Note: Will try a new feature here (if I remember to do it in the future). I will give best bet of the group with analysis. Today's best bet of the group is Gully Hill Road PID R8 #8. He returns in 20 days after a top-flight performance for these with slightly better. He has great stalking speed in a field which does not offer a whole lot of pace. He should take the lead somewhere on the last turn and should be very difficult to run down.

GL Mark

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Selections for Thursday 8/20/09:

OHIO R10 #3 Midnight Spiece ML 9/2
HOO R6 #1 Sir Dakota ML 7/2
PID R7 #2 Wise Answer ML 8/1
PID R8 #8 Gully Hill Road ML 3/1
PEN R6 #4 Lucky Citizen ML 3/1
CBY R6 #2 Voracious ML 7/2

Interestingly, this is the first day that I've seen any intersection between your choices and one of the models I'm running, and there are actually two today. I also have Sir Dakota at Hoosier & Lucky Citizen at Penn. My guess is that if they are showing up on both our lists, we're not going to get the price either of us would like.

Good luck today.

P.S. Just to be complete, our models have different picks in one race, a beautiful (lol) maiden claimer in Ohio. While you land on some potential value, my model lands on the chalk, the 5, Holding Hands, who is 5/2 on the morning line.

[markgoldie]

Results for Thurs. 8/20

Two qualifiers both lost. They were: OHIO R10 Midnight Spice and PEN R6 Lucky Citizen. Presque Isle was cancelled after 6th so the two selections there did not run.

Running total: 40 plays $2 win return $125.80.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Fri. 8/21/09:

FL R5 #7 David's Lab ML 5/1
OHIO R14 #2 Khrisgo ML 5/2
PID R4 #2 Chimchar ML 4/1
EVD R1 #12 Mymamastillstandin ML 9/2
MNR R2 #6 Moonshine Talk ML 5/2
PID R6 #4 Bk's Clearanceisle ML 8/1
PID R8 #3 Hamilton Hall ML 5/1
EVD R10 #2 Independent Miss ML 4/1
CBY R8 #1 Email Alert ML 9/2
EMD R5 #7 Swiss S S T ML 5/2

That's it.

Notes: Best bet of day is PID R4 #2 Chimchar. This horse is an E type with a remarkable flexibility to run with the pace at longer and to close at this 6f distance. Should lay off the pace here and overwhelm these with much superior ability. (Yesterday's BB did not run due to cancellation of late PID card).

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Friday 8/21:

Only two horses qualified by price (one was scratched). They were: FL R5 #7 David's Lab and PID R8 #3 Hamilton Hall. The Finger Lakes horse ran second at $13.30 - 1 and the Presque Isle horse won and paid $9.40 to win.

Running total now is: 42 plays, win return $135.20 ROI +60.9%

THe best bet was pounded to $.80 and ran 3rd. (Poor ride IMO as the horse was forced to run in a duel for the lead, which is not his best game at the 6f distance.)

Will post today's when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Saturday 8/22/09:

HOO R3 #8 Sultry Pleasure ML 7/2
OHIO R3 #3 Crackerbox Palace ML 7/2
HOO R4 #2 Crown's Big Day ML 5/2
FL R7 #1 Silver Heels ML 5/2
MON R10 #7 Sleek John ML 7/2
LRL R10 #3 Perfect Pet ML 3/1
PID R8 #7 Miss May ML 4/1
EVD R6 #7 Tom Dick Or Harry ML 6/1

Unfortunately that's it, after looking at almost 100 races which made it through the initial filter.

Note: Discontinuing best bet selection. This was a hairbrained idea that was the result of some sort of mental cramp. We all know that there is no such thing as a best bet in this game, fraught with randomness as it is, when you have no idea of closing odds. It's a numbers and percentages game and let's stick to that. Also, this "system" has another big problem which is obvious but I haven't mentioned before (although it was briefly touched on by an earlier poster). That is, with the last second odds' movement at some of these tracks, you would have bet thinking that you had the proper odds only to find out that they had plummeted after the bell. I would imagine that this would "come out in the wash" over the long run, but still it violates the premise of an odds' minimum. There doesn't seeem to be a good way to avoid this dilemma.
Still very much unsure if this is worth the effort with so few plays but I guess I'm learning something through the process.

GL Mark

PS. Anybody doing anything with these plays? If you are, don't be afraid to say so because it doesn't bother me at all.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Selections for Saturday 8/22/09:

HOO R3 #8 Sultry Pleasure ML 7/2
OHIO R3 #3 Crackerbox Palace ML 7/2
HOO R4 #2 Crown's Big Day ML 5/2
FL R7 #1 Silver Heels ML 5/2
MON R10 #7 Sleek John ML 7/2
LRL R10 #3 Perfect Pet ML 3/1
PID R8 #7 Miss May ML 4/1
EVD R6 #7 Tom Dick Or Harry ML 6/1

Unfortunately that's it, after looking at almost 100 races which made it through the initial filter.

Note: Discontinuing best bet selection. This was a hairbrained idea that was the result of some sort of mental cramp. We all know that there is no such thing as a best bet in this game, fraught with randomness as it is, when you have no idea of closing odds. It's a numbers and percentages game and let's stick to that. Also, this "system" has another big problem which is obvious but I haven't mentioned before (although it was briefly touched on by an earlier poster). That is, with the last second odds' movement at some of these tracks, you would have bet thinking that you had the proper odds only to find out that they had plummeted after the bell. I would imagine that this would "come out in the wash" over the long run, but still it violates the premise of an odds' minimum. There doesn't seeem to be a good way to avoid this dilemma.
Still very much unsure if this is worth the effort with so few plays but I guess I'm learning something through the process.

GL Mark

PS. Anybody doing anything with these plays? If you are, don't be afraid to say so because it doesn't bother me at all.

Re: last minute odds movement -- not necessarily a problem, but that is why you do a test with real money to see if the picks you actually end up betting on make money, not just the "research" sample. Of course, this IS the research sample...

[formula_2002]

Still very much unsure if this is worth the effort with so few plays but I guess I'm learning something through the process.

at a 1.60+ roi..I would hang in there!!!

I posted 35 picks today after "looking" at 3500 horses and I get JOLLY when I can get to a .97 roi..