NEW RESEARCH PROJECT PICKS

[markgoldie]

Results for Thurs. 8/6:

Once again we had lots of non-qulaifiers due to low odds.

Three horses qualified and all lost. They were:
HOO R5 #4 WinGrammy Boy
HOO R6 #4 Waki Bird
CBY R7 #6 Ma Barker

Running total is now 8 plays

Inv. $16

Ret. $31.60

Will post today's plays when done.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Picks for 8/7/09 (See rules of play on page 1)

Will now post picks in post-time order, rather than track order:

Ohio R4 #8 Just Call Me Mr K ML 7/2
HOO R5 #9 Good Morning Nell ML 5/2
HOO R6 #5 Catch Up Cat ML 5/2
Ohio R9 #4 Itsaffirmed ML 7/2
FL R9 #1 Wiseman's Jet ML 4/1
LAD R7 #4 Real Eddy ML 9/2
EVD R2 #7 Easy On The Co Two ML 7/2
MNR R5 #10 Miss Guided ML 5/1
PEN R7 #6 Like Gangbusters ML 9/2
PRM R5 #7 Alyssouthern Storm ML 7/2
PEN R10 #1 Bid from Bourtai ML 4/1
CBY R 8 #4 Wide Ide ML 7/2

That's it. Hopefully, the odds will hold up on most of these. The HOO pair of ML 5/2 shots may not. Also, the ML oddsmaker in Ohio is probably off on the two ML's of 7/2 on these horses. Likely to be much lower. But I listed these horses just in case. Quite a few valid selections were not listed because I am sure they will never reach the 5-2 wagering threshold.
The MNR selection faces a tough post at a flat mile but I'm hoping we get extra odds because of it. Also, she should have enough tactical speed to avoid being hung too wide in the first turn.
A number of additional tracks were scanned but without suitable plays. Will not bother to list them. What's the difference?

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for 8/7/09:

Once aqgain, lots of non-qualifiers despite the fact that most of the selections were not morning line favorites. This could mean one of two things: Either the morning lines are inaccurate or someone is pounding these selections. I think we can safely rule out the second possibility.

At any rate, there was one scratch and only two horses qualified for play at 5-2 or over. They were:

MNR R5 #10 Miss Guided ......Lost
PRM R5 #7 Alyssouthernstrom.....Won Paid $7.40

Running total: 10 selections
Investment $20
Return $39.00

Will post today's selections when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Sat. 8/8/09:

In post time order. Hopefully, we get more plays.

HOO R5 #4 Runaway Jake ML 5/2
HOO R6 #2 Caught In A Net ML 4/1
FL R5 #9 Wild Logic ML 5/1
OHIO R7 #6 Apache Chief ML 5/2
OHIO R13 #6 Smokem Cohiba ML 5/1
ELP R10 #5 Starstreak ML 5/1
DMR R4 #8 Yankee Station 3/1
EVD R2 #10 Hometown Hottie ML 7/2
PRM R2 #3 Chesapeake Bay ML 4/1
MNR R6 #4 Raka ML 9/2

That's it. Once again, many plays were filtered out because they are virtually certain not to make the necessary 5/2 odds stipulation. As you can see by the ML odds that are associated with these picks and the many selections that go off at lower odds than needed, this is meant to be a rather high strike-rate selection system. My gut tells me it should produce close to 30% winners and the average odds should be somewhat over 3-1. But, we shall see.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Once again, too many horses bet down. Only three qualified for play.

For my purposes, they all lost, although two ran second. Interestingly, one had appeared to have won the race on the live feed and was called the winner by the race announcer at River Downs but the photo revealed he lost. The announcer and I were baffled. They didn't post the photo, although presumably it was available at the track.

This makes 13 total plays for a return of $39.

I am discontinuing the project because it's too much work for so few plays.

Mark

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

I am discontinuing the project because it's too much work for so few plays.

Isn't there some way to automate your process? Seems a shame to tank it when your ROI is still +50%.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Once again, too many horses bet down. Only three qualified for play.

For my purposes, they all lost, although two ran second. Interestingly, one had appeared to have won the race on the live feed and was called the winner by the race announcer at River Downs but the photo revealed he lost. The announcer and I were baffled. They didn't post the photo, although presumably it was available at the track.

I was watching that. They corrected it -- your horse did win. Check again.

[markgoldie]

Unbelievable. I never saw anything like that before. They posted the 9 horse as the winner and then changed it??!!

Anyway, that makes the results a little better. Now the 13 plays yielded $46.20.

Ryesteve: I guess theoretically, at least, this could be automated. The problem is I take so many things into account, it would take someone far better than me to do it. The other problem is that my main wagering, as I have posted here before is complex gimmicks, mostly superfectas and actually I am a contrarian player. I look for situations with vulnerable favorites and I have had some tremendous scores when low priced chalk runs off the ticket. So I really don't have the kind of mindset that wants to play ON horses. This has made me notice something that I was only vaguely aware of in the past, though. That is, unless we are talking about the biggest-handle tracks, it is very hard to shoot for a specific win odds because they are changing radically after the race starts. Even a decent- handle track like Arlington can have a horse drop a full point after they have been loaded into the gate. These last-minute win-odds fluctuations have no bearing on the gimmick pools, of course, because the gimmick players can't react to these changes.

Anyway, my work load is pretty large as it is. I'll see. Maybe I can keep working it in.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Ryesteve: I guess theoretically, at least, this could be automated. The problem is I take so many things into account

All the more reason to automate as much as you can, so long as we're not talking about subjective criteria. Hope you find the time to continue. Whatever you're doing certainly is working so far.

[markgoldie]

Okay, reviving this thread after two days in which I was very busy.

Recap has the system at 13 plays with a $2 win-bet return of $46.20.

Plays in post-time order. Tues. 8/11

SUF R7 #4 Handsome Reward ML 3/1
Ohio R9 #1 Its In the Blood (Part of entry) 7/2
MNR R1 #7 Peak Of Style M/L 8/1
MNR R6 #3 Bough Breaker ML 12/1
MNR R9 #10 Save Me Some ML 6/1

That's it unfortunately. The MNR selections have unusually high ML odds associated with them, but that's a good thing because MNR is a home of chaos. I know a lot of guys are crying about artificial surfaces and the lack of consistency but trying playing MNR for awhile. I rarely do.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results of plays for Tues. 8/11

4 horses qualified for play.

3 failed to win. They were: SUF R7 #4 Handsome Reward; MNR R1 #7 Peak Of Style; and MNR R9 #10 Save Me Some (all 3 were on-the board placings but since this is a win-only system, we don't count that).

There was one winner: MNR R6 #3 Bough Breaker. He paid $22.40.

So, the running totals now are: 17 plays $2 win return $68.60, which would make it a tad over a 100% positive ROI. And as we all are fully aware, these results cannot possibly be sustained.

Mark

[098poi]

Mark keep going till you have at least 100 picks! You're the one who wanted to open a thread to try this so you would stay motivated. Consider this a pep talk. Don't throw in the towel yet.

[Donnie]

Nice job Mark!
Was wondering if you would be interested in posting the # / % of place and show horses? Although you may not be looking for these spots, to me, success in these holes help validate the winners. I think a person needs to strike a balance between hit and value and you appear to be hitting a nice balance of both right now.
Here's to continued success!

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by Donnie

Nice job Mark!
Was wondering if you would be interested in posting the # / % of place and show horses? Although you may not be looking for these spots, to me, success in these holes help validate the winners. I think a person needs to strike a balance between hit and value and you appear to be hitting a nice balance of both right now.
Here's to continued success!

Hey Donnie; Way too busy to do that but if you or someone else wanted to, it's all here on the thread. All you have to do is get the plays and look up the charts on Brisnet or some other results' service.

[Light]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Results of plays for Tues. 8/11

So, the running totals now are: 17 plays $2 win return $68.60, which would make it a tad over a 100% positive ROI. And as we all are fully aware, these results cannot possibly be sustained.

Mark

I've rarely seen anyone posting in this section with that kind of an ROI even with a short run.

I think this is one of the fun side things that some handicappers do. They go to the drawing board like scientists,play around with a few factors and try to crack the riddle. I've come up with something that caught 2 price horses (singled) in a row in its initial start.(6-1 and 11-1). I should be more excited but I've been there,done that and it usually doesn't pan out as well as it starts.But we'll never know unless we give it the real test.