NEW RESEARCH PROJECT PICKS

[markgoldie]

Hello forum. I am looking to research a selection method and follow it for profitability. Being a lazy type, I thought that posting the selections on the forum might keep my motivation up for continuing the necessary work (but no guarantees). This is not my major method of handicapping and play, but just a thought based on some pretty strong theoretical underpinnings.

Even though I am not a win bettor, I am doing this on the basis of win ROI.

The rules are the following: Horses selected must have an off-time odds of 5-2 or better and I am expecting an average odds of over 3-1.

I am omitting some selections which are virtually certain NOT to make the odds-cut. I am also including some horses which I will segregate that are UNLIKELY (in my opinion) to make the odds-cut of 5-2. But, you never know.

On rare occasion, I might post two horses in the same race. The rule is, play the one over 5-2 (if one is) OR play both if they both are over 5-2.

These selections are ONLY for tracks that I normally follow, simply because I am not downloading pps from all tracks just for this exercise.

Without further ado, I will post first selections on a fresh post.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Selections for 8/5/09:


Qualify but are unlikely to make the 5-2 odds' cut:

EVD R4 #3 It Just Got Better ML.5/2

PID R2 #1 Bobbie's Devil ML 5/2
PID R4 #6 A Nice Splash ML 3/1

HOO R8 #4 Monkey Dust ML 5/2
HOO R9 #2 Proud Jefe ML 2/1


Qualify and are more likely to make 5-2 odds' cut:

ARL R2 #5 Willie To Go ML 6/1
ARL R3 #6 D' Code ML 9/2

DMR R5 #2 Village Lady ML 7/2

HOO R4 #6 Terry D ML 4/1
HOO R5 #10 Angry Pirate ML 7/2

PID R5 #8 Private Exchange ML 7/2
PID R6 #8 Zun's Girl ML 7/2

PEN R3 #3 Case Notes ML 9/2
PEN R5 #2 Lucky Sila ML 4/1
PEN R7 #1 Gone Prospecting ML 3/1
PEN R7 #9 Euro Code ML 10/1 (Note: Follow 2-horse in same race rule).

EVD R11 #10 Dekalb Rex ML 6/1

End of selections. Note: Suffolk and Monmouth were considered but no plays.

[markgoldie]

Note: Feel free to post any comments, opinions, selections, etc. at any time. Always interested in the ideas of others.

Mark

[positive4th]

I'm not sure what to comment on b/c I don't know on what basis you were selecting your picks - - - this could be brilliant or ridiculous, but I have no idea b/c I'm not sure what made some horses eligible and some not. If you're essentially trying to predict overlays on horses have a ML of 5/2 or higher, then I guess we'll see if it works out and they go off like you want.

But really, again, without some more details on the selection method, we don't have much to comment on!

[positive4th]

Originally Posted by positive4th

I'm not sure what to comment on b/c I don't know on what basis you were selecting your picks - - - this could be brilliant or ridiculous, but I have no idea b/c I'm not sure what made some horses eligible and some not. If you're essentially trying to predict overlays on horses have a ML of 5/2 or higher, then I guess we'll see if it works out and they go off like you want.

But really, again, without some more details on the selection method, we don't have much to comment on!

And I really don't mean any of this to be rude, I am just honestly not able to comment much without some further details........we all have to have reasons for making our selections, and you gave some of yours as they pertain to the off-time odds. But to call it a research project, in my estimation, requires a little more detail on the parameters before useful input from others can be expected........

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by positive4th

And I really don't mean any of this to be rude, I am just honestly not able to comment much without some further details........we all have to have reasons for making our selections, and you gave some of yours as they pertain to the off-time odds. But to call it a research project, in my estimation, requires a little more detail on the parameters before useful input from others can be expected........

No, I didn't mean that you had to comment immediately. What I was really trying to express is that I invite anyone to barge right in on the thread and say whatever you want. As far as the selection process itself, naturally I will not spell it all out in the POSSIBLE, but unlikely event that it might prove substantially profitable. However, that being said, two things: (1) I am a serious and successful handicapper and not a quack and (2) much of my core theory has been laid out on the forum in the past. My opening thread where I introduced myself to the forum contains a good deal of the theoretical underpinnings of my handicapping. If you are interested, you could look that thread up. I think it's safe to say that the methodology in making the selections at hand closely follow my theoretical philosophy of handicapping.

Mark

[CBedo]

Good luck with the project. You and I were on the same page at Hoosier today to a large extent (which didn't really work out--mostly from the odds being too so low).

[markgoldie]

Results of first day's selections:

Unfortunately, the number of plays was cut down considerably by odds that were too low. Please note that I am not particularly interested in what these lower odds horses do, since they do not qualify under the parameters of the system. However, yesterday, there were 9 such examples of horses with odds too low. 5 of them won, three more ran second, and 1 was out. There was a win profit associated with playing these, and certainly a place profit as well. If someone wants to keep statistics on these, fine.

We also lost 2 selections which were scratched.

That left us with 5 system plays. Since the system is based on win ROI, the actual finish of the horses is irrelevant. In other words, for my purpose, the horse either won or lost (with even a narrow second place finish constituting a loss).

The playable horses were:

DMR R5 Village Lady........Lost
EVD R11 Dekalb Rex........Lost
ARL R2 Willie To To.........Won......$19.60
ARL R3 D' Code...............Lost
PEN R5 Lucky Sila...........Won......$12.00

Total Wagered $10 Total Returned $31.60

Too early to start calculating ROI. Meaningless at this point.

Will post today's plays as soon as I do them.

Mark

[Anderon]

Nice Job Mark...!!!

[markgoldie]

Thanks Anderon. Today's plays will be up soon.

[markgoldie]

Plays for 8/6/09: (Remember guidelines, 5-2 closing odds or better. Again I have omitted horses which in my opinion have no chance of being at least 5-2.)

LAD R4 #3 Ima Champali ML 4/1

HOO R5 #4 Win Grammy Boy ML 4/1
HOO R6 #4 Waki Bird ML 7/2

PEN R1 #4 Dressed In White ML 6/1
PEN R3 #7 Fortunistic ML 3/1

EVD R7 #6 King Nasrullah ML 5/2

EMD R4 #3 Ax Me A Question ML 5/2
EMD R6 #6 Surf Academy ML 7/2

CBY R6 #2 Wild Shifter ML 7/2
CBY R7 #6 Ma Barker ML 4/1

That's it. The following tracks were considered but no suitable plays found: ARL, CRC, MON, OHIO 7&7, PID, DMR. Kind of slim pickings. Let's hope we get more in future.

Mark

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

That's it. The following tracks were considered but no suitable plays found: ARL, CRC, MON, OHIO 7&7, PID, DMR. Kind of slim pickings. Let's hope we get more in future.

Not sure how many tracks you look at on the weekends, but for my simplistic model, the number of bets explodes Friday-Sunday with 1) the number of tracks being much higher, and 2) something about structure of the weekend cards seems to give me a higher number of bets per track on average for some reason.

As the number of 2 year old races increases through the year, that hurts my model's number of bets since I'm currently passing them.

Good luck today.

[CBedo]

Mark, I notice (small sample) that there seems to be a midwest to west bias in the tracks. Is that conincidental, or does it have to do with what tracks you can wager, or is it something else (do you just like to sleep late, lol)?

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by CBedo

Mark, I notice (small sample) that there seems to be a midwest to west bias in the tracks. Is that conincidental, or does it have to do with what tracks you can wager, or is it something else (do you just like to sleep late, lol)?

No, I look at some East Coast tracks like CRC, SUF, FLK, MON, also Kentucky but I bet with an offshore rebate service which doesn't carry DEL, New York, or PHA. You're right about weekend cards because you don't get all these maiden races with firsters. I filter them out. Also filter out turf because the numbers are not reliable (or should I say AS reliable) as the dirt numbers. But right now my biggest problem is short fields. It's really hard for me to make any headway when playing into these 5 and 6-horse events that we have all over the place. Even if you have 8 or 9 horses carded, by the time you get the scratches, you've often lost 2 or more. IMO we'd be better off with less tracks and bigger fields. But that's just me. Some guys love betting big numbers on 3-5 shots when there are only 4 other horses that can beat you. But I doubt if they're making any money doing it.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

No, I look at some East Coast tracks like CRC, SUF, FLK, MON, also Kentucky but I bet with an offshore rebate service which doesn't carry DEL, New York, or PHA. You're right about weekend cards because you don't get all these maiden races with firsters. I filter them out. Also filter out turf because the numbers are not reliable (or should I say AS reliable) as the dirt numbers. But right now my biggest problem is short fields. It's really hard for me to make any headway when playing into these 5 and 6-horse events that we have all over the place. Even if you have 8 or 9 horses carded, by the time you get the scratches, you've often lost 2 or more. IMO we'd be better off with less tracks and bigger fields. But that's just me. Some guys love betting big numbers on 3-5 shots when there are only 4 other horses that can beat you. But I doubt if they're making any money doing it.

My first quick filters in development were a) no turf, b) no 2 year olds (although I'm finding subsets that look promising), & c) no maiden specials (due to first time starters, and lack of information). I have found however that maiden claimers are doing pretty good for me. The hit rate there is a bit lower than overall, but the avg odds offset that.

I agree on the field size comments completely. Some solid 3/1ish horses in a 8 horse field get pounded down to nothingness in these 5 horse fields. The roi of my model correlates somewhat to field size--the bigger the better!