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Old 11-20-2015, 07:13 PM   #121
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Picks for 11/21/15

Aqu 1------#11 Light Reign
Aqu 3------#1 Starago
Aqu 4------#6 No Entiendo
Aqu 5------#6 Where's Danny
Aqu 6------#7 Homespun Hero
Aqu 7------#1 Ostrolenka
Aqu 9------#8 Guaranteed

Lrl 1-------#8 Stormy Mistress
Lrl 2-------#7 Our Laughing Lady
Lrl 3-------#7 Venture Capital
Lrl 4-------#15 Lay It On
Lrl 6-------#6 Hasty Miss
Lrl 7-------#9 The Pulse
Lrl 9-------#9 Irish Lute
Lrl 10------#1 Portuguese Prince

CD 4------#8 Nifty Fifty
CD 5------#3 Betweenhereandcool
CD 6------#8 La Piba
CD 10-----#7 Bitty Kitty

FG 3-------#7 Top Cat Boogie
FG 4-------#5 Concho

Dmr 2------#6 Chanito
Dmr 5------#6 All Star Bub
Dmr 8------#7 Havanna Belle

GG 3-------#7 Perfect Meeting
GG 6-------#6 Vaazzee
GG 7-------#9 Ship Mast
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Old 11-22-2015, 08:01 PM   #122
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Picks for 11/21/15

Aqu 1------#11 Light Reign-----------------scratched
Aqu 3------#1 Starago
Aqu 4------#6 No Entiendo
Aqu 5------#6 Where's Danny
Aqu 6------#7 Homespun Hero
Aqu 7------#1 Ostrolenka-------------------XXXX, 10.40
Aqu 9------#8 Guaranteed

Lrl 1-------#8 Stormy Mistress
Lrl 2-------#7 Our Laughing Lady
Lrl 3-------#7 Venture Capital
Lrl 4-------#15 Lay It On
Lrl 6-------#6 Hasty Miss
Lrl 7-------#9 The Pulse
Lrl 9-------#9 Irish Lute
Lrl 10------#1 Portuguese Prince------------scratched

CD 4------#8 Nifty Fifty
CD 5------#3 Betweenhereandcool
CD 6------#8 La Piba
CD 10-----#7 Bitty Kitty

FG 3-------#7 Top Cat Boogie--------------39.00, 5.80
FG 4-------#5 Concho

Dmr 2------#6 Chanito
Dmr 5------#6 All Star Bub
Dmr 8------#7 Havanna Belle

GG 3-------#7 Perfect Meeting
GG 6-------#6 Vaazzee
GG 7-------#9 Ship Mast------------------21.80, 9.40

For the day:

win = 2/25
bet = $50
back= $60.80
gain= $10.80----for the year =($121.60 loss)

place = 3/25
bet = $50
back = $25.60
loss= $24.40-----for the year =($365.10 loss)
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Old 11-27-2015, 08:06 PM   #123
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Picks for 11/28/15

Aqu 2------#7 Do I Amuse You
Aqu 4------#5 Just the Zip
Aqu 5------#7 Hunter O'Riley
Aqu 6------#2 Gear Jammer
Aqu 7------#5 Pangburn
Aqu 8------#2 Bombaquia

Tam 1------#10 Dreamingoflawrence
Tam 2------#6 Serenade Me
Tam 3------#7 Jo Jo Cool
Tam 5------#6 Love That Kelly
Tam 6------#6 Southern Quality
Tam 7------#1 Oxford Street

CD 3-------#9 My Second Million
CD 4-------#6 Uno Perfecto
CD 5-------#3 Little Cherie
CD 6-------#8 Peggy in Motion
CD 10------#5 The Right Thing
CD 11------#7 Tom's Ready

FG 2-------#5 Fish Cakes
FG 4-------#12 Tiffany Blue Belle
FG 9-------#6 Killingit

Dmr 5------#7 One Last Shot
Dmr 7------#2 Sharla Rae
Dmr 8------#1 Cat Burglar
Dmr 9------#2 Daddy D T
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Old 11-29-2015, 10:23 AM   #124
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Picks for 11/28/15

Aqu 2------#7 Do I Amuse You
Aqu 4------#5 Just the Zip
Aqu 5------#7 Hunter O'Riley
Aqu 6------#2 Gear Jammer
Aqu 7------#5 Pangburn
Aqu 8------#2 Bombaquia

Tam 1------#10 Dreamingoflawrence
Tam 2------#6 Serenade Me----------------------XXXX, 4.80
Tam 3------#7 Jo Jo Cool
Tam 5------#6 Love That Kelly-------------------scratched
Tam 6------#6 Southern Quality-----------------XXXX, 6.00
Tam 7------#1 Oxford Street

CD 3-------#9 My Second Million
CD 4-------#6 Uno Perfecto
CD 5-------#3 Little Cherie
CD 6-------#8 Peggy in Motion
CD 10------#5 The Right Thing
CD 11------#7 Tom's Ready

FG 2-------#5 Fish Cakes
FG 4-------#12 Tiffany Blue Belle
FG 9-------#6 Killingit

Dmr 5------#7 One Last Shot
Dmr 7------#2 Sharla Rae
Dmr 8------#1 Cat Burglar-----------------------scratched
Dmr 9------#2 Daddy D T

For the day:

win = 0/23
bet = $46
back= $0
loss= $46----for the year =($167.60 loss)

place = 2/23
bet = $46
back = $10.80
loss= $35.20-----for the year =($396.70 loss)
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Old 12-05-2015, 11:13 AM   #125
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Picks for 12/5/15

Aqu 1------#7 Big Band Benny
Aqu 5------#8 Doctor Mounty
Aqu 6------#4 Protection
Aqu 8------#3 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid

Tam 4------#1 Salsa Queen
Tam 5------#12 Barnards Galaxy
Tam 6------#5 Princess Appeal

GP 2-------#3 Makes Good Sense
GP 3-------#2 Afleet Mary
GP 4-------#3 Valid Concept
GP 5-------#1 Bear's Pearl
GP 6-------#2 Classic Salsa
GP 7-------#10 Elusive Harmony
GP 9-------#7 At Large
GP 10------#8 Depeche Chat

FG 5-------#5 Tyler's Wildcat
FG 7-------#2 Aubrey's Mission
FG 8-------#3 Fahne

TP 2-------#2 Skip to the Cause
TP 3-------#8 Boarding Card
TP 6-------#1 Cactus Joe
TP 8-------#4 Vanilla Score
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:07 AM   #126
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Picks for 12/5/15

Aqu 1------#7 Big Band Benny
Aqu 5------#8 Doctor Mounty
Aqu 6------#4 Protection
Aqu 8------#3 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid

Tam 4------#1 Salsa Queen
Tam 5------#12 Barnards Galaxy
Tam 6------#5 Princess Appeal

GP 2-------#3 Makes Good Sense
GP 3-------#2 Afleet Mary
GP 4-------#3 Valid Concept
GP 5-------#1 Bear's Pearl
GP 6-------#2 Classic Salsa
GP 7-------#10 Elusive Harmony---------------scratched
GP 9-------#7 At Large
GP 10------#8 Depeche Chat

FG 5-------#5 Tyler's Wildcat
FG 7-------#2 Aubrey's Mission
FG 8-------#3 Fahne

TP 2-------#2 Skip to the Cause
TP 3-------#8 Boarding Card
TP 6-------#1 Cactus Joe
TP 8-------#4 Vanilla Score

For the day:

win = 0/21
bet = $42
back= $0
loss= $42----for the year =($209.60 loss)

place = 0/21
bet = $42
back =$0
loss= $42-----for the year =($438.70 loss)
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Old 12-12-2015, 11:15 AM   #127
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Picks for 12/12/15

Lrl 1-------#4 Bret's At Caddies
Lrl 2-------#4 Street Car
Lrl 5-------#4 Cherokee Pass
Lrl 7-------#10 Olga Payne
Lrl 8-------#7 Moon Vision

Tam 4------#6 Dreamingoflawrence
Tam 5------#5 Is the Big
Tam 7------#9 I'm Prissy Too
Tam 10-----#3 Ruiesandwranglers

GP 1-------#10 Our Way
GP 2-------#9 Bluegrass Jam
GP 3-------#3 Pink Poppy
GP 5-------#4 Flash Jak
GP 7-------#3 Tocoron
GP 8-------#5 Behzad's Pride
GP 9-------#2 Lemon Point
GP 10------#3 Just Call Kenny
GP 11------#2 Slim Shadey

TP 2--------#3 Swayze Lady
TP 5--------#10 Proven Warrior
TP 7--------#6 Betweenhereandcool

FG 5--------#6 Populist Politics
FG 8--------#9 M. B.'s Vow
FG 11-------#13 Icy Gentleman
FG 13-------#10 Power and Grace

LRC 7-------#1 Turn Your Eyes
LRC 8-------#7 Mama's Sugar
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Old 12-15-2015, 10:27 AM   #128
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Picks for 12/12/15

Lrl 1-------#4 Bret's At Caddies
Lrl 2-------#4 Street Car
Lrl 5-------#4 Cherokee Pass
Lrl 7-------#10 Olga Payne
Lrl 8-------#7 Moon Vision

Tam 4------#6 Dreamingoflawrence---------------XXXX, 9.60
Tam 5------#5 Is the Big
Tam 7------#9 I'm Prissy Too
Tam 10-----#3 Ruiesandwranglers----------------XXXX, 7.00

GP 1-------#10 Our Way
GP 2-------#9 Bluegrass Jam
GP 3-------#3 Pink Poppy
GP 5-------#4 Flash Jak
GP 7-------#3 Tocoron
GP 8-------#5 Behzad's Pride
GP 9-------#2 Lemon Point
GP 10------#3 Just Call Kenny
GP 11------#2 Slim Shadey

TP 2--------#3 Swayze Lady
TP 5--------#10 Proven Warrior------------------XXXX, 8.80
TP 7--------#6 Betweenhereandcool-------------22.40, 12.80

FG 5--------#6 Populist Politics
FG 8--------#9 M. B.'s Vow
FG 11-------#13 Icy Gentleman
FG 13-------#10 Power and Grace--------------XXXX, 10.20
-
LRC 7-------#1 Turn Your Eyes
LRC 8-------#7 Mama's Sugar

For the day:

win = 1/27
bet = $54
back= $22.40
loss= $31.60----for the year =($241.20 loss)

place = 5/37
bet = $54
back =$48.40
loss= $5.60-----for the year =($444.30 loss)
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Old 12-19-2015, 11:11 AM   #129
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Picks for 12/19/15

Aqu 2------#1 Hopper Dropper
Aqu 3------#3 Drum Roll
Aqu 5------#2 Changewilldoyagood
Aqu 6------#6 Iswear I'll Behave
Aqu 7------#7 Thnxtomyuncle
Aqu 9------#6 D'bunnyphone

Tam 4------#10 She's Going Strong
Tam 5------#5 Dragon Queen
Tam 9------#12 Exaggerated
Tam 10-----#3 Southern Warrior

GP 1-------#3 Staceys Reflection
GP 2-------#11 Oxidienne
GP 3-------#6 English Mahaveer
GP 5-------#2 Perdido Playboy
GP 6-------#6 Dark Gemini
GP 7-------#4 Prudhoe Bay
GP 8-------#9 Gone Local
GP 9-------#1 Enjoy the Show
GP 10------#7 Face of Winner
GP 11------#12 Susie Bee

FG 1-------#6 Old Conch
FG 4-------#6 Tanzen
FG 6-------#12 Street of Gold
FG 8-------#10 He's Damn Good
FG 12------#7 Brave Aaron

LRC 7------#3 She's Reddy
LRC 9------#4 Reliable Source

TP 4-------#10 Taketothestreets
TP 5-------#2 Vanilla Man
TP 8-------#3 Prosecution
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Old 12-20-2015, 11:36 AM   #130
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Picks for 12/19/15

Aqu 2------#1 Hopper Dropper
Aqu 3------#3 Drum Roll
Aqu 5------#2 Changewilldoyagood
Aqu 6------#6 Iswear I'll Behave
Aqu 7------#7 Thnxtomyuncle
Aqu 9------#6 D'bunnyphone------------------------11.60, 6.20

Tam 4------#10 She's Going Strong
Tam 5------#5 Dragon Queen
Tam 9------#12 Exaggerated
Tam 10-----#3 Southern Warrior

GP 1-------#3 Staceys Reflection
GP 2-------#11 Oxidienne-------------------------48.20, 22.40
GP 3-------#6 English Mahaveer
GP 5-------#2 Perdido Playboy
GP 6-------#6 Dark Gemini
GP 7-------#4 Prudhoe Bay
GP 8-------#9 Gone Local
GP 9-------#1 Enjoy the Show
GP 10------#7 Face of Winner
GP 11------#12 Susie Bee

FG 1-------#6 Old Conch
FG 4-------#6 Tanzen
FG 6-------#12 Street of Gold---------------------XXXX, 5.40
FG 8-------#10 He's Damn Good
FG 12------#7 Brave Aaron------------------------XXXX, 18.40

LRC 7------#3 She's Reddy
LRC 9------#4 Reliable Source

TP 4-------#10 Taketothestreets
TP 5-------#2 Vanilla Man------------------------XXXX, 23.60
TP 8-------#3 Prosecution

For the day:

win = 2/30
bet = $60
back= $60.80
gain= $0.80----for the year =($240.40 loss)

place = 5/30
bet = $60
back =$76.00
gain= $16.00----for the year =($428.30 loss)
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Old 12-26-2015, 12:27 AM   #131
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Picks for 12/26/15

Aqu 3------#5 Sax Change
Aqu 5------#3 Hunter Cat
Aqu 6------#6 Eton Blue
Aqu 7------#8 Copernicus
Aqu 9------#9 Wildniteattheopera

Lrl 2-------#4 If I Was a Boy
Lrl 5-------#12 Buckleberry Grey
Lrl 7-------#2 Graced
Lrl 8-------#4 Stolen Love
Lrl 9-------#1 Lionhearted Lady

Tam 2------#4 Dragon Attack
Tam 3------#6 Take a Powder
Tam 5------#8 Nano Tech
Tam 6------#8 Weekend Appeal
Tam 8------#6 Arctic Slope
Tam 10-----#10 Samarkanda

FG 2--------#3 Esken Lady
FG 4--------#3 Dynamite Stick
FG 5--------#6 Yankee Cowboy
FG 6--------#7 America Mon Amie
FG 8--------#10 Belomor
FG 10-------#8 Jobay

TP 1--------#6 Charnocks
TP 2--------#4 Jewelian 'n Roses
TP 4--------#8 Vision of Liz
TP 6--------#11 Right Charlie

SA 2--------#5 Gambler's Wish
SA 3--------#3 Angel Lane
SA 4--------#11 Somethings Unusual
SA 5--------#9 Mad Bum
SA 6--------#7 Acceptance
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Old 12-28-2015, 03:47 PM   #132
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Picks for 12/26/15

Aqu 3------#5 Sax Change
Aqu 5------#3 Hunter Cat
Aqu 6------#6 Eton Blue
Aqu 7------#8 Copernicus---------------------XXXX, 5.50
Aqu 9------#9 Wildniteattheopera

Lrl 2-------#4 If I Was a Boy
Lrl 5-------#12 Buckleberry Grey------------scratched
Lrl 7-------#2 Graced-------------------------scratched
Lrl 8-------#4 Stolen Love
Lrl 9-------#1 Lionhearted Lady

Tam 2------#4 Dragon Attack---------------XXXX, 8.60
Tam 3------#6 Take a Powder
Tam 5------#8 Nano Tech
Tam 6------#8 Weekend Appeal
Tam 8------#6 Arctic Slope
Tam 10-----#10 Samarkanda

FG 2--------#3 Esken Lady
FG 4--------#3 Dynamite Stick--------------scratched
FG 5--------#6 Yankee Cowboy
FG 6--------#7 America Mon Amie----------scratched
FG 8--------#10 Belomor
FG 10-------#8 Jobay-------------------------scratched

TP 1--------#6 Charnocks
TP 2--------#4 Jewelian 'n Roses
TP 4--------#8 Vision of Liz
TP 6--------#11 Right Charlie

SA 2--------#5 Gambler's Wish
SA 3--------#3 Angel Lane-------------------XXXX, 12.30
SA 4--------#11 Somethings Unusual
SA 5--------#9 Mad Bum

For the day:

win = 0/26
bet = $52
back= $0
loss= $52----for the year =($292.40 loss)

place = 3/26
bet = $52
back =$26.40
loss= $25.60----for the year =($453.90 loss)
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Old 12-28-2015, 05:48 PM   #133
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Final Summary:

My goal was to show a profit betting certain long shots(10+ on morning line) each Saturday for a year. I failed. Started well but faltered.

# of win bets = 1243
# that won = 77
% frequency = 6.2%

money bet to win = $2486
money back = $2193.60
money lost = $292.40
% loss = 11.8%

Like all losers I'd like to spin the loss a bit. At least I beat the takeout - estimated at over 17%.

According to Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012" (based on 25,000 claiming sprint races) if you had bet every horse that went off at 9:1 or higher odds, you would expect to win 3.5% of your bets. Almost doubled that figure.

As Thomas Edison would say. It was not a complete failure because I now know another something that doesn't work.
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