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03-29-2015, 10:12 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 3/28/15
Aqu 2-----#2 Scorpion's Touch------------------XXXX, 3.80
Aqu 5-----#8 Life's a Roar-----------------------XXXX, 15.00
Aqu 6-----#7 Ulations
Aqu 7-----#5 Back Forty
Aqu 9-----#11 Keltic Fighter
Tam 4-----#3 Exchanging Glances
Tam 6-----#6 Canna Red-----------------------20.20, 8.00
Tam 10----#10 Where's That Cat
GP 1------#4 Hard Enough
GP 1------#5 Interpol---------------------------13.80, 6.60
GP 3------#8 Diamond Eye---------------------scratched
GP 7------#9 Strike Em Down------------------scratched
GP 8------#3 Brothersofthetime
GP 10-----#6 Baffle Me
FG 1------#10 Even Street
FG 4------#7 Safari Clamari
FG 6------#7 Brilliant Interest
FG 7------#6 Bluffalatta
FG 9------#5 Danette
FG 13-----#12 Fort Wagner
OP 3------#3 Sconnie Nation
OP 4------#5 Golden Moon
OP 5------#1 Right Squall
OP 8------#3 Dynamacho------------------------XXXX, 10.80
OP 9------#1 Wolf City
OP 10-----#3 Everything Bling
SA 6------#6 Kill Shot
For the day:
win = 2/25
bet = $50
back= $34
loss = $16---------for the year =($126.60 gain)
place = 5/25
bet = $50
back = $43.20
loss = $6.80-----------for the year =($67.80 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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03-30-2015, 03:31 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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First Quarter Review of Saturday Long Ones
# of win bets = 305
# win bets cashed = 23
hit rate = 7.5 %
$ win bet = $610
$ win back = $736.60
$ net = plus $126.60
% profit = 20.7%
# of place bets = 305
# place bets cashed = 40
hit rate = 13.1%
$ place bet = $610
$ place back = $542.20
$ net = minus $67.80
% loss = (11.1%)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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03-30-2015, 04:09 PM
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#33
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Out of 23 winners, 11 of them were 15-1 and higher:
58.00
56.40
55.60
50.60
48.80
46.00
42.40
41.60
39.80
38.00
33.80
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Total- $511.00
So, 47% of your total winners produced 69% of your payback.
It appears you might have a profitable selection method, so far.
My suggestion to you would be to make conditional wagers with 0 or 1 minute to post, through Xpressbet or another entity who have this feature, and bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 15-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck..
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03-30-2015, 06:33 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Nice suggestion. Think I'll try it. In the meantime, I'll continue to post picks based on the morning line. My goal is to show a profit at the end of the year.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-04-2015, 01:13 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/4/15
Aqu 1-----#3 Little Rocco
Aqu 2-----#5 Sol the Freud
Aqu 4-----#8 Winter Games
Aqu 5-----#7 Gym Too
Aqu 6-----#9 Leilani's Ticket
Aqu 12----#10 Frazil
GP 1------#3 Thunderinwillie
GP 3------#7 Moonlight Time
GP 6------#4 Cassidys Valentine
GP 11-----#11 Ault
Tam 1-----#5 Tazz Time
Tam 4-----#1 Beach Master
Tam 11----#9 Kentonia
Kee 3-----#5 Kings Knight
Kee 4-----#2 Sky Blazer
Kee 8-----#4 Something Extra
OP 3------#3 Prairie Gold
OP 4------#7 Diamond of Blue
OP 6------#2 Doctor Peter
OP 7------#7 Wishful Dreamin
OP 8------#3 Rallydownthealley
SA 2------#8 Canadian Exchange
SA 3------#2 Pay the Fine
SA 4------#8 Madam Aamoura
SA 9------#3 Miss Boom Boom
SA 10-----#12 Princess Bertrando
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-05-2015, 10:43 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/4/15
Aqu 1-----#3 Little Rocco
Aqu 2-----#5 Sol the Freud-----------------scratched
Aqu 4-----#8 Winter Games
Aqu 5-----#7 Gym Too
Aqu 6-----#9 Leilani's Ticket
Aqu 12----#10 Frazil
GP 1------#3 Thunderinwillie
GP 3------#7 Moonlight Time
GP 6------#4 Cassidys Valentine--------------XXXX, 6.20
GP 11-----#11 Ault
Tam 1-----#5 Tazz Time
Tam 4-----#1 Beach Master
Tam 11----#9 Kentonia-----------------------XXXX, 5.40
Kee 3-----#5 Kings Knight
Kee 4-----#2 Sky Blazer
Kee 8-----#4 Something Extra--------------18.40, 8.40
OP 3------#3 Prairie Gold
OP 4------#7 Diamond of Blue
OP 6------#2 Doctor Peter-------------------13.60, 5.40
OP 7------#7 Wishful Dreamin
OP 8------#3 Rallydownthealley
SA 2------#8 Canadian Exchange
SA 3------#2 Pay the Fine
SA 4------#8 Madam Aamoura---------------XXXX, 14.00
SA 9------#3 Miss Boom Boom
SA 10-----#12 Princess Bertrando
For the day:
win = 2/25
bet = $50
back= $32
loss = $18---------for the year =($108.60 gain)
place = 5/25
bet = $50
back = $39.40
loss = $10.60-----------for the year =($78.40 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-11-2015, 01:53 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/11/15
Aqu 4-----#8 Ackerman Road
Aqu 6-----#8 Taxplayer
Aqu 7-----#5 Pete's Fleet
Aqu 9-----#5 Livi On Love
GP 3------#6 Party Till Dawn
GP 4------#6 Gamble
GP 5------#5 Shogun Samurai
GP 6------#9 Prince Raja
GP 8------#9 Demand
GP 9------#1 Over and Back
GP 10-----#6 Cat n Fiddle
Tam 5-----#3 Sin Banderas
Tam 9-----#2 Spin Wild
WO 4------#3 Vinolicious
WO 5------#6 Lookingforanewhome
WO 7------#5 Bug's Girl
Kee 3-----#5 King of Broadway
Kee 7-----#7 Believe in Charlie
OP 1------#7 Indian Companion
OP 5------#1 Zipzapzapper
OP 6------#6 Sheikinator
OP 8------#1 Calypso Run
SA 2------#7 Maxx the Giant
SA 7------#11 Aquacita
SA 9------#6 Keegers
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-12-2015, 12:03 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/11/15
Aqu 4-----#8 Ackerman Road
Aqu 6-----#8 Taxplayer----------------------scratched
Aqu 7-----#5 Pete's Fleet--------------------XXXX, 9.10
Aqu 9-----#5 Livi On Love
GP 3------#6 Party Till Dawn----------------XXXX, 6.60
GP 4------#6 Gamble
GP 5------#5 Shogun Samurai--------------XXXX, 10.80
GP 6------#9 Prince Raja
GP 8------#9 Demand
GP 9------#1 Over and Back
GP 10-----#6 Cat n Fiddle
Tam 5-----#3 Sin Banderas
Tam 9-----#2 Spin Wild
WO 4------#3 Vinolicious
WO 5------#6 Lookingforanewhome
WO 7------#5 Bug's Girl
Kee 3-----#5 King of Broadway
Kee 7-----#7 Believe in Charlie---------------scratched
OP 1------#7 Indian Companion
OP 5------#1 Zipzapzapper--------------------XXXX, 8.60
OP 6------#6 Sheikinator
OP 8------#1 Calypso Run
SA 2------#7 Maxx the Giant
SA 7------#11 Aquacita
SA 9------#6 Keegers
For the day:
win = 0/23
bet = $46
back= $0
loss = $46---------for the year =($62.60 gain)
place = 4/23
bet = $46
back = $35.10
loss = $10.90-----------for the year =($89.30 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-17-2015, 07:08 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/18/15
Pim 2-----#5 High Wire Act
Pim 3-----#5 Star Black
Pim 5-----#13 Salty Contender
Pim 10----#14 North Star Bot
Tam 1-----#1 H B Warrior
Tam 7-----#7 Just Jebicab
Tam 9-----#7 Motor City
GP 1------#3 Our Liberty Bay
GP 3------#4 Crown Ready
GP 5------#3 Vigas
GP 7------#11 Indefinable Humor
GP 9------#11 Standard Deal
GP 10-----#5 Lay It Down
Kee 2-----#5 Strong Resolve
Kee 8-----#1 Barefoot Children
Kee 10----#10 Tahoe Warrior
LS 1------#10 Take It and Fly
LS 4------#8 Cool Hnad Butte
LS 6------#5 Hannah's Journey
LS 9------#6 Aranuba
LS 9------#12 Mamawasapistol
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-19-2015, 02:19 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/18/15
Pim 2-----#5 High Wire Act
Pim 3-----#5 Star Black
Pim 5-----#13 Salty Contender
Pim 10----#14 North Star Bot
Tam 1-----#1 H B Warrior-----------------92.40, 30.80
Tam 7-----#7 Just Jebicab
Tam 9-----#7 Motor City
GP 1------#3 Our Liberty Bay
GP 3------#4 Crown Ready----------------XXXX, 5.20
GP 5------#3 Vigas
GP 7------#11 Indefinable Humor
GP 9------#11 Standard Deal
GP 10-----#5 Lay It Down-----------------XXXX, 4.40
Kee 2-----#5 Strong Resolve
Kee 8-----#1 Barefoot Children
Kee 10----#10 Tahoe Warrior
LS 1------#10 Take It and Fly
LS 4------#8 Cool Hnad Butte--------------cancelled
LS 6------#5 Hannah's Journey------------cancelled
LS 9------#6 Aranuba-----------------------cancelled
LS 9------#12 Mamawasapistol------------cancelled
For the day:
win = 1/17
bet = $34
back= $92.40
gain= $58.40---------for the year =($121.00 gain)
place = 3/17
bet = $34
back = $40.40
gain = $6.40-----------for the year =($82.90 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-19-2015, 07:12 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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That $92 winner at Tampa had a longshot factor that I included in my Pace Handicapping Longshots book, a switch to an apprentice rider, which result in a 7 lb weight advantage over most of the horses in the race. But even more significant and unusual was the fact that the jockey that had been riding this horse was also the trainer. The horse was coming off his career worse speed figure, but his career best pace figures.
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04-25-2015, 01:37 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/25/15
Aqu 2-----#1 Always Sarah
Aqu 4-----#9 Horatio
Aqu 5-----#6 Raffies Bay
Aqu 7-----#8 Majestic Raffy
Pim 5-----#6 Irunalatte
Pim 9-----#5 Breezy Girl
GP 3------#6 Galardonado
GP 5------#3 Gossip Column
GP 8------#6 Milton T
GP 10-----#11 Surtsey
GP 11-----#6 Rocky Gap
Tam 1-----#7 Militsa
Tam 2-----#8 Lotta Irish
Tam 3-----#1 Standing Appeal
Tam 5-----#6 Diamond Heat
Tam 9-----#3 Kept the Faith
GG 5------#6 Heaveneleven
GG 9------#3 Hear the Ghost
SA 5------#2 Rare Punch
SA 8------#6 Si Sage
EvD 2-----#1 Officer Dixie
EvD 3-----#12 Bullseye Hayes
EvD 5-----#5 Cassiengracie
EvD 6-----#11 Adieu My Friend
EvD 8-----#9 My Pal Beanie
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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04-26-2015, 01:16 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 4/25/15
Aqu 2-----#1 Always Sarah
Aqu 4-----#9 Horatio
Aqu 5-----#6 Raffies Bay
Aqu 7-----#8 Majestic Raffy
Pim 5-----#6 Irunalatte
Pim 9-----#5 Breezy Girl
GP 3------#6 Galardonado----------------XXXX, 4.20
GP 5------#3 Gossip Column
GP 8------#6 Milton T
GP 10-----#11 Surtsey
GP 11-----#6 Rocky Gap-----------------XXXX, 9.60
Tam 1-----#7 Militsa
Tam 2-----#8 Lotta Irish
Tam 3-----#1 Standing Appeal
Tam 5-----#6 Diamond Heat---------------scratched
Tam 9-----#3 Kept the Faith
GG 5------#6 Heaveneleven
GG 9------#3 Hear the Ghost--------------scratched
SA 5------#2 Rare Punch
SA 8------#6 Si Sage----------------------87.60, 26.00
EvD 2-----#1 Officer Dixie
EvD 3-----#12 Bullseye Hayes
EvD 5-----#5 Cassiengracie
EvD 6-----#11 Adieu My Friend
EvD 8-----#9 My Pal Beanie
For the day:
win = 1/23
bet = $46
back= $87.60
gain= $41.60---------for the year =($162.60 gain)
place = 3/23
bet = $46
back = $39.80
loss= $6.20-----------for the year =($89.10 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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05-02-2015, 01:39 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 5/2/15
Bel 3-----#6 Cousin Michel
Bel 7-----#4 You Tarzan
Bel 9-----#9 Royal Posse
Bel 10----#8 Sky Blazer
Pim 3-----#6 Nightcut
Pim 4-----#2 High Wire Act
Pim 7-----#4 My Guardian Angel
Pim 9-----#1 Foolish Tiger
CD 4------#2 Mordi's Miracle
CD 5------#3 The Truth or Else
CD 7------#5 You Bought Her
CD 8------#3 Tepin
CD 9------#6 Gentlemen's Bet
CD 10-----#1 Optimizer
CD 11-----#15 Frosted
CD 13-----#1 Hey Bro
GG 2------#6 Lucy in Diamonds
GG 3------#1 Sharp Hooq
GG 5------#2 Changing Game
GG 7------#8 Anytime Magic
GG 9------#1 Summer Story
SA 4------#5 Catalina Bonita
SA 6------#4 Cinematic Cat
SA 7------#8 Badasmywifeletsmeb
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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05-02-2015, 09:10 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 5/2/15
Bel 3-----#6 Cousin Michel
Bel 7-----#4 You Tarzan
Bel 9-----#9 Royal Posse
Bel 10----#8 Sky Blazer
Pim 3-----#6 Nightcut
Pim 4-----#2 High Wire Act-----------------17.40, 8.20
Pim 7-----#4 My Guardian Angel
Pim 9-----#1 Foolish Tiger
CD 4------#2 Mordi's Miracle
CD 5------#3 The Truth or Else
CD 7------#5 You Bought Her
CD 8------#3 Tepin--------------------------20.20, 8.20
CD 9------#6 Gentlemen's Bet
CD 10-----#1 Optimizer
CD 11-----#15 Frosted
CD 13-----#1 Hey Bro
GG 2------#6 Lucy in Diamonds
GG 3------#1 Sharp Hooq
GG 5------#2 Changing Game
GG 7------#8 Anytime Magic
GG 9------#1 Summer Story
SA 4------#5 Catalina Bonita
SA 6------#4 Cinematic Cat
SA 7------#8 Badasmywifeletsmeb
For the day:
win = 2/24
bet = $48
back= $37.60
loss= $10.40---------for the year =($152.20 gain)
place = 2/24
bet = $48
back = $16.40
loss= $31.60-----------for the year =($120.70 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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