Turf Paradise Rehab

[johnhannibalsmith]

Looks like I broke down two in a row with Mr. Instigator never within 50 of the leaders at any point. I guess they figured out Willycan - put him on a seven length lead immediately and dare him to try to put on the brakes. Too bad - with Mikes Trippin second, Aspen Mist third, and Chase Red fourth, the tris and super should be pretty solid even with Willy finally winning one. The consolation about being wrong there is that His Holiness got drubbed as the eventual post time favorite. I'll pay $68 to witness that.

Damn - tri paid $213.40 and .10 super hit back at $312.86....

Too much overthinking things... need more rehab I see.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Okay, I can't take it...

We have a Jeff Metz 7-5 shot here in the third, which means the race is probably wide open. I actually kind of like two in the next race at a price, and the third leg of a prospective pick 3 starting here looks like it's either Silva at 3-5 or reward time. This is when I kinda like the .50 pick three here - when these races are a mess and you can spread like mad and try to catch a big part of the pool on a weekend with just a hint of luck.

ALL / 6,9 / 1,2,3,7,8 = $40

Single the 3 in leg 3 for a backup.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm glad Mr. Chamberlain thought he spotted a winner in that mess at the wire. What a terrible bunch of slugs and wacky rides there, as expected, unfortunately the favorite was able to deadheat for the win in a three way photo.

But, alas, this was kind of the race I actually liked today and the one that I thought was a possible play at a nice price off the 8-1 M/L opened at 3-1, so not sure if I like him too much if he loiters around there.

That would be Dr. Watson. Dr. Watson and I have a love/hate relationship. He does have some talent, but he's hardly the sharpest tool in the shed. But, his last race at ARP in which he ran second, he actually should have won. Local hero, the amazingly overrated Russell Vicchirilli simply shit his pants when Kelly Bridges made it just a hint tight on him inside the quarter pole and it cost him the race. The horse that Bridges outrode him on, and it was a simple matter of him being outrode, is a horse named Hanzel Taswell. Hansel just ran yesterday in a brutally tough spot at Gulfstream fresh off a win at the OCL25k/1x level previously.

The upside is that the good Doctor has actually been training at TuP and not up at Dixie Downs playing racehorse. The downside, for me at least, is that I hate the work patterns leading to this race. The upside again is that he drew the extreme outside, because he can outbreak a field from out there and get right into dirt throwing mode from the outset if he's actually ready to perform.

My primary fear here is Red Apache. He gives the illusion of a dropper, but really, he's just dropping in claiming level - the horses in that breed MOCL were arguably nothing more than bottom maidens for the most part. But, he came with some endorsements for that debut and didn't have a pretty trip down the backside, getting pinched and intimidated while a bit green.

Not sure how to play it per se - but I think 4-1 and above is around fair value on Doc Watson and somewhere in that range on Red Apache as well (who I just jumped screens to notice took a huge hit in the win pool).

Just to put something up here in case my theoretical conditional win wagers don't reach fruition:

$20 win on at 7-2 or better.

.20 super 6,9 / 2,3,6,7,9 / 2,3,6,7,9 / ALL = $28.80

[johnhannibalsmith]

Need more rehab.

Nobody informed Giuseppe de Franco that you have to get aggressive on the Doctor and play catch the leader. Or else, he had enough of his stupidity during the five minutes it took to get the half-wit into the gate and just figured he'd get him a clean, easy trip. No excuse for second place finisher Red Apache who had a clean trip and just had no finish late. He needs maiden five breeds, preferably a field with nothing bred by AAA or Weir.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Alright, uno mas to get me deeper or headed back above sea level...

I like the firster in the next Toc This Way - son of Toccet out of one fast, running bitch that has a few colts that have been pretty good here in AZ. Jacque Guerra doesn't get in a big hurry and they usually know the routine when they show up for that first go.

Problem is, I have no clue what kind of action it'll take and I wouldn't be interested at 5-2 or lower and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens... so what do I do to make a play in print that will shame me? I guess a pick 4.

But man oh man, leg one is such a bunch of shitters with a Hollendorfer in here taking a ton of money - and I've been burned enough on these at the meet that I shouldn't even do it - or I should cover most of the field and try to get going early, but the rest of the sequence is even more pathetic.

So, I'll tepidly use the Hollendorfer, but also one making his second start against winners. Ran well first time off the maiden win, though defeated as the favorite. Don't care for the rail draw, but I can at least some upside this time and has been hanging around 8-1.

Keeping it small on low pool Sunday:

.50 pick 4 : 1,6 - 7 - 1,2,3,4,6 - 3,5,6,7,9 = $25

[johnhannibalsmith]

Hay Caramba...

The Hollendorfer of course does nothing whatsoever and my one (after taking a TON of money at 2MTP) leads to the sixteenth only to get run over by Silva's biggest POS in the barn, Slyly.

UNCLE!!!!!

[maclr11]

First race looks kinda silly after the two scratches
Early Pick 4 had to use three horses
2,3,6
The two established runners and a firster from a barn that can bring them over once in a while.
Second race is hard to get past Chambers horse Mon Coueur but I will try to use Lee Creek off the freshening to try to run them down.
2,3
The third race is again about getting past Blast'em and I will use two others to try to beat him, the 1 Full Power Ahead and the 7 Fly'n Lion
1,2,7
Last leg is a spread leg
1- Maria Lake made a big middle move last time and tired, now cuts back in distance
2- Giacomo Girl is second time Rarick, and had a real good work and should bounce back
4- Camino Phill Hall bought her back and she does have lots of good drills, have to have if spreading
5- Lady Jila moves up in class after a win
6- Quinette ran 2nd first off the layoff last time and should get dream trip behind speed

$0.50 Pick 4
2,3,6/2,3/1,2,7/1,2,4,5,6
$45

[maclr11]

Pick 5
The first leg looks like a meltdown waiting to happen with By Fohr Now and Mixed Intent
Using Mixed Intent, Tulelake off the big win, Sliven, Kisses for Kate and Anne's Seven Cats
Anne's Seven Cats might end up being the bet in here for me
1,2,3,7,8
Second leg Silva shipping in with a bullet work, sounds like a winner
6
Third leg throwing out Double Chocolate didnt run well last time and as a trainer down there would say "No Bute, No Lasix, No Shot"
Using a bunch though
Bonjour is the speed, Polebound is second off a layoff and if he wins the trainer gets to show off her legs in the winners circle dont miss that one, Little Bit Cactus had a rough trip last time and Ciao Valentina for Rarick/O'Callaghan should get a better trip after being 8wide and the rider change to Stevens
2,4,5,6
Fourth leg
Borrego Babe for Silva, Denim and Diamonds for Lucarelli and Suetosuetosue for Guiterrez and Franco
2,3,8
Two horses in the last leg to finish it off
Midnight Affair for Chambers, and Little Linda, the two obvious contenders
4,7

$.50 Pick 5
1,2,3,7,8/6/2,4,5,6/2,3,8/4,7
$60

[HuggingTheRail]

Race 1 - post time...going with the 6

[johnhannibalsmith]

Oh great, now you guys are going to drag me into a card that I swore I wasn't going to do anything but just watch a few times.

Not that it can't win obviously, but this Chambers' runner here would be an awful price to me at almost anything resembling odds-on, much less the 1-9 it has been stuck on.

It's a little tough to decipher the local win last time because on the one hand, it really wasn't a very tough field. Airborne Mark ran second, and while he's a nice little horse, I don't think he's genuinely a whole lot more than a bottom conditioned claimer that's been spotted well in weak races for the level (traditionally speaking - this has been an epidemic scenario this season). But, Mon Cour did win it fairly easily and its a little tough to gauge just how much better he was than the others in that field.

Still with the likes of Artistic Venture, who will pop and collapse late, it's hard not to gravitate towards the stretch rallying Lee Creek - currently 18-1 at 10MTP - as the alternative to the favorite. I'm not a big fan in general as he does have a habit of just being in the right place at the right time to pick up the scraps at the end of a pace meltdown - not exactly a legit "look down the lane" sort of closer that runs like he's on a mission - but he's probably kept vastly better company than the others in here. He has been outrun by legit opponents for the level at which they were running - Call Me Jones, Nextdoorneighbor, multiple local winner Tribal Dreams, A Royal Tizzy, etc - any one of those in this spot would figure to bump up the price on the current favorite quite a bit.

If these pools stay like this and he's actually off at 6-1 or greater, even though I'm not a big fan, I don't know how I could avoid not accepting that temptation.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Welp, Chambers gets its done... and I'm not saying he woulda'... but if Vergara isn't trying to fall off of Lee Creek at the start and checking him ten off of the second to last horse and actually breaks with the field, well... at least maybe VonRaisin would have had to get into the winner a bit.

[HuggingTheRail]

Not a lot of pace in the 3rd...going to hope our Hastings hopeful #1 Full Power Head can show a bit more speed from the rail....

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by maclr11

...The third race is again about getting past Blast'em and I will use two others to try to beat him, the 1 Full Power Ahead and the 7 Fly'n Lion
1,2,7
...

This is one of those races I hate playing and hate not playing because you end up with another Silva campaigner that just never seems to quite tail off and then on the other hand a good old horse like Grandpa Roy that will run a dud now and then as well as firing off an effort that would win the TuP Handicap now and then as well. And both always take enough money that you end up damned no matter which way you go - especially since the contrarian in me generally tries to defy what raw statistics and conventional TuP trainer handicapping dictates when the rest of the field seems to have inflated odds.

So, once again - I find myself unable to restrain myself from finding that one horse that I think can do the improbable and run his best and win on a day when a Silva doesn't (ha!) and the old campaigner (in this case Grandpa) doesn't fire.

And that would be one of your selections - Full Power Ahead.

I'm not sure what's gotten into him, but he's been running huge all meet - running like a young pup - and doing it in spite of bad trips, questionable rides, poor starts, on turf, on dirt, going long, going short - he just keeps firing. And there isn't a bad race at all on his form all meet. My jaw was dropped when I thought he might wear down Danzip (my selection in that tough spot) on a day when that old classy veteran had everything his own way and that effort just lingers in the mind as the mark of a horse that still has some racehorse in him.

At 5-1 right now at 4MTP, it isn't the greatest price a guy might've hoped for as tough as the two logical ones are and most of the rest of the field can at least have a case made for each of them. But, for my porpoises in a field like this, I'd probably end up using him more as a key horse in exotics and weighting the size of the tickets in accordance with each of the others in the field, but including one and all in some small capacity at least considering the will-pays on the exactas with him and everyone but the aforementioned favorites are rather appealling.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Dang, Blast 'Em finally caved and Grandpa actually didn't fire his best shot... and it was the sorry SOB that I used against Blast 'Em last time - Flyin Lion - that gets it done at the wire this time... Grrr... The downside of holding a grudge against one that I thought had every chance to win last time and couldn't possibly run any better... Good call by Mac there though to look like a winner at the top of the lane with Full Power Ahead, then look like a loser to Grandpa, then get that shot of adrenaline inside the sixteenth when you realize Grandpa is going to falter to your other pick...

[HuggingTheRail]

Race 4

The fav here, the 5, may....I repeat may, face a fair bit of pace pressure. The 7 is going...and the 2,3 and 4 all do their best running close to the pace.

Going to hope the jocks all gun it...."best" bet of the day #6 Quinnette to sit off a pace duel and run by them all late