Turf Paradise Rehab

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

... I figured this was to be the decent value here at 4-1 or better... Looks like she probably can make the lead fairly easily here and that seems like a winning move in a spot like this.

...$2 super 1,4 - 1,2,4,7 - 1,2,4,7 - 1,2,4,7 = $24

$64

Was right about how it would run basically but couldn't have bet into the winner at the short price. Super came back decent considering at $74.60 a copy, putting me up about $80 in fake money. Really a grinding kind of card today...

Really dislike the field for the sixth. I couldn't convince myself to key the seven at a short price, so figured I'd settle on getting a big price on the and looking for a gate-to-wire blitz here. Somehow, she's the second choice in here at 3-1 as we near 5MTP. I can't quite get on board with that.

Friggin' Annadu couldn't beat my crappy homebred off the year layoff last time, but the runner-up in that spot did manage to overwhelm a bunch of layoff returnees up there at your home base at ASD and somehow even got claimed off of that pretty pathetic loss previously.

I do think that with Iammarino, there's an outside chance they may just try to ship Annadu into a better early spot, but then I think she just runs in place down the lane and I doubt she makes the lead even under an all-out pace blitz.

I dunno...

$1 super 3,4 - 3,4,7 - 1,2,3,4,7 - 1,2,3,4,7 = $24
$1 super 3,4,7 - 3,4,7 - 3,4,7 - 1,2,5, = $18


$42 seems like overkill here, but hey, I'm ahead in fake money.

[johnhannibalsmith]

MMMMOOOOVING OOONNNN UP WITH J J ' S JUNCTION and GEORGE ERIC JEFFERSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


That... is why I REFUSE to play actual money on closing weekend...

[johnhannibalsmith]

As far as race 7 goes, this is what I typed to Thaskalos, who loves the one here, earlier in the day in another thread in another forum.

Originally Posted by johnhannibabblejones

Okay, okay... don't want to mess up the Birthday thread, so I'll just lay it all out there. She's run well the last few - really buried me last time when she contested the fast splits for the distance and hung around to barely get beaten by a filly who I endorsed as a claim. The thing that has really gotten me is how much better she has been in the gate lately. She can be a plum idiot and has been scratched for flipping before. Just to make matters worse, Martin Bordieau has been getting some sort of ridiculous leeway in what he rides. He got hurt, yeah, but he rides the first, takes off the second, rides the third, takes off the next two, rides his last... The guy's a good guy and a solid jock at TuP, but with this filly's history, the rail draw, and two pretty fast mares outside of her (3 & 7 in particular), I'd have no choice to follow my useless instincts and play against, yet again.

Who to play? I thought Sailaway Lady ran a big one last time against some decent fillies, but I just don't find it a terribly encouraging sign that she came here from Justin Evans to this barn off of back-to-back wins over in New Mexico prior to her last try there. Just smells bad to me, but if the price was ridiculously good and not the 8-5 I expect... I kinda sorta like the outside mare here - She Can Roar. Not big on anything that Silva actually decides to sell, but... Got away terribly last time, rushed up, got a goofy trip into hot splits and faded. Outside today, better gate jock, presumably determined effort to get right on the pace and at the price, if the ill-conceived CO-bred claim and Sailway Lady disappoint, there may not be a whole lot of running going on behind the action up front and that would conceivably leave this pseudo-bomber in the right spot at the right time.

Of course, I have a strong policy about not playing opening or closing weekend at Turf Paradise, but since we're just posturing, what the hell.

Welp, my "pseudo-bomb", the outside mare, opens as the favorite in here and is currently still 5-2 at 10MTP.

Obviously, not real interested in her at that price. If we get up to 9-2 or so, I start making fake bets.

This just looks like a damned if you damned if you don't type of race - I know which I think should be the best here, but the prices are currently too bad to play and getting into exotics just seems like a good way to piss away money counting on all of them to actually show up.

Where am I? Up $38 fake dollars? If the makes it up to 9-2, gimme $20 there I guess. Otherwise, I'll just root for (sort of) Thaskalos.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Ah hell, since my $20 now goes in since she's at 5-1, lets add $8 to the mix to leave me with a $10 bill and play a pick 3 here:

.50 P3 : 1,7 - 4 - 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 = $8

[johnhannibalsmith]

Woo hoo!

Dickie Pot Pie!

Love this time of meet... all the little guys suddenly get reeeeeallllly good!!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Okay, last ten fake bucks to play goes into this race.

$10 W

Thought she'd end up getting bet, but still at 9-1. May just be a better mare than the local yokels in here. Ry probably worked her in one of her local works, so if he took the call, she's at least okay. Right price, bad race, last play of the day...


...unless she wins! Then we find the worst horses in the field for the last and box them all!!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Ah well - she ran quite well, losing the photo for second and beaten only about a length by the odds on favorite for it all after making the lead turning for home. So glad I don't feel obligated to sift through the finale now.

Don't forget to tune in tomorrow for the closing day $35k stakes with a full field of $2500 claimers!!!!!!!!