The Greatest of All Time - Bob Baffert

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Do you have a link to the quote? That would be the smart thing to do.

Here's my reasoning, which you can call informed speculation.

Pimlico suddenly announced today (on a SUNDAY!) that the Preakness draw, a publicized event with reporters and TV cameras, will take place one day later, Tuesday at 4 p.m.

This is a highly irregular event. You are telling TV bookers and other media types who were going to give the Preakness some publicity that they all have to change their plans. Indeed, I don't think the PP draw has ever been delayed (unless you want to count last year, when the race itself was delayed, not really the PP draw) in the 140+ year history of the Preakness.

No reason was really given by the track. So why did they do it?

Well, the only obvious reason they would do it is because they figure they will have more relevant information Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT than they would have Monday. And what relevant information could that be? The thing that screams out is THE OFFICIAL RESULT OF MEDINA SPIRIT'S DRUG TEST.

So now the question is "why would they think Medina Spirit's drug test would be confirmed before Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT when splits can take months?". And the obvious answer there is "they've made sure that THIS split won't take months".

Justify's split took time because all the relevant players in that one (Baffert, the owners, Dr. Arthur, and the CHRB) WANTED it to take time. It isn't because a drug testing lab, especially if paid a fee to expedite, can't do the test in a few hours. Of course it can.

Here, Pimlico is signaling "hey, we're going to know what we need to know before Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT", which is another way of saying "there's going to be no shenanigans with Medina Spirit's confirmatory drug test".

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Here's my reasoning, which you can call informed speculation.

Pimlico suddenly announced today (on a SUNDAY!) that the Preakness draw, a publicized event with reporters and TV cameras, will take place one day later, Tuesday at 4 p.m.

This is a highly irregular event. You are telling TV bookers and other media types who were going to give the Preakness some publicity that they all have to change their plans. Indeed, I don't think the PP draw has ever been delayed (unless you want to count last year, when the race itself was delayed, not really the PP draw) in the 140+ year history of the Preakness.

No reason was really given by the track. So why did they do it?

Well, the only obvious reason they would do it is because they figure they will have more relevant information Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT than they would have Monday. And what relevant information could that be? The thing that screams out is THE OFFICIAL RESULT OF MEDINA SPIRIT'S DRUG TEST.

So now the question is "why would they think Medina Spirit's drug test would be confirmed before Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT when splits can take months?". And the obvious answer there is "they've made sure that THIS split won't take months".

Justify's split took time because all the relevant players in that one (Baffert, the owners, Dr. Arthur, and the CHRB) WANTED it to take time. It isn't because a drug testing lab, especially if paid a fee to expedite, can't do the test in a few hours. Of course it can.

Here, Pimlico is signaling "hey, we're going to know what we need to know before Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT", which is another way of saying "there's going to be no shenanigans with Medina Spirit's confirmatory drug test".

There has to be a quote somewhere with them saying that. Nobody has ever heard of a split coming back that fast.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

There has to be a quote somewhere with them saying that. Nobody has ever heard of a split coming back that fast.

We haven't been in this situation before. The only Derby winner to test positive in the post-race test was Dancer's Image, in the very early days of drug testing.

But in 2021, labs can get you a same-day result. (See, e.g., https://www.nationaldrugscreening.co...-drug-testing/ .) It's just that 99.99 percent of the time, there's no need for a quick result on a split. Here, there obviously is.

And, again, it's not like there's any viable alternative reason Pimlico would mysteriously delay the Derby draw, on a Sunday, one day before it was scheduled to take place.

[Spalding No!]

They might not necessarily be waiting for the split sample but rather a more recent out-of-competition sample to confirm that the medication is no longer detectable.

Some jurisdictions will make a horse ineligible to enter until it passes a blood test.

However, if the horse is indeed officially ineligible to enter at the moment, then it would be extraordinary that entries would be delayed to accommodate an eleventh hour test.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

They might not necessarily be waiting for the split sample but rather a more recent out-of-competition sample to confirm that the medication is no longer detectable.

Some jurisdictions will make a horse ineligible to enter until it passes a blood test.

However, if the horse is indeed officially ineligible to enter at the moment, then it would be extraordinary that entries would be delayed to accommodate an eleventh hour test.

If they are actually delaying the entries so that Medina Spirit can be flushed clean and PASS a later drug test, and Baffert needs the extra day to get the dope out, it would mean big trouble and even more bad publicity for horse racing and for Stronach and Maryland.

As cynical as I am about this sport, I can't believe anyone would think that would fly.

So I come back to, the logical explanation here is they think they can get the confirmatory test back before 4pm Tuesday and refuse Medina Spirit's entry unless it comes back legal.

[paulbenny]

This is a topical steroid. it can be used by a human being according to my limited research. It is plausible a worker used it, and was sloppy. A lot of people have skin issues. They are all over. Steroids are pervasive. It still does not justify a positive. If you say someone gave it to the horse, well, how, vs deliberately. I am not a science guy but 10 vs 21 is a trace to me.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

If they are actually delaying the entries so that Medina Spirit can be flushed clean and PASS a later drug test, and Baffert needs the extra day to get the dope out, it would mean big trouble and even more bad publicity for horse racing and for Stronach and Maryland.

As cynical as I am about this sport, I can't believe anyone would think that would fly.

So I come back to, the logical explanation here is they think they can get the confirmatory test back before 4pm Tuesday and refuse Medina Spirit's entry unless it comes back legal.

I don't think the impetus to be give more time would be to facilitate "flushing" the drug out of the horse but rather a more practical reason of logistically getting a new sample tested (if it is indeed a special test it couldn't have been obtained earlier than today).

There's also the likelihood that Pimlico has already conducted out-of-competition testing on all Preakness possibles and normally would let horses enter while awaiting the results, but in this instance decided to call an audible to save more aggravation if the horse is still positive.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

This is a topical steroid. it can be used by a human being according to my limited research. It is plausible a worker used it, and was sloppy. A lot of people have skin issues. They are all over. Steroids are pervasive. It still does not justify a positive. If you say someone gave it to the horse, well, how, vs deliberately.

Betamethasone is a common corticosteroid used to inject joints in athletic horses.

I am not a science guy but 10 vs 21 is a trace to me.

Math guys would say that's more than double...

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

This is a topical steroid. it can be used by a human being according to my limited research. It is plausible a worker used it, and was sloppy. A lot of people have skin issues. They are all over. Steroids are pervasive. It still does not justify a positive. If you say someone gave it to the horse, well, how, vs deliberately. I am not a science guy but 10 vs 21 is a trace to me.

How many other trainers have had an accidental contamination in the prior years? I think this is the 4th time in recent history for Bob.

How many accidental contaminations have there been in UK/Aus/HK in recent history? The closest incident I could find was last autumn when Aiden OBrien discovered his feed source was contaminated...before his horses had run and had them all scratched even after travelling to Australia.

And in the end, 21 is greater than 0, the limit set, whether it's a good limit or bad, it's the rule, you can't pick and choose what rules to follow. It's like in Olympic T&F during relays when you see a runner's pinky toe touch the inside white line, meaning they have been determined to only run 399.9999 of the 400m relay and is dq'ed. Harsh, but that's the rule.

[thaskalos]

Some personalities are so dominating that they eventually become even bigger than the sport that they represent. Baffert obviously doesn't deserve the benefit of any doubt...but it's rather obvious that the rules don't apply to him...and the most that can befall him is a slap on the wrist. A substantial ban would be akin to the NBA banning Michael Jordan...or Twitter banning Andy Asaro.

[Bigadam119]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

I would be surprised if Pimlico doesn’t let him run unless it wants a mess on its hands when Baffert eventually finds a way out of this one. Belmont and NYRA have a way of getting rid of this problem, see I’ll Have Another having a cute little retirement show the morning of the Belmont

I’m guessing this is implying that I’ll have another was juiced?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Bigadam119

I’m guessing this is implying that I’ll have another was juiced?

Drug O'Neill is a very problematic figure, but I'll Have Another's injury was legit.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Betamethasone is a common corticosteroid used to inject joints in athletic horses.


Math guys would say that's more than double...

Just take drunk driving for example.

Blow a .005. You are fine .010? DUI.

Allan

[Gander36]

For reference, all should know that because drug testing is expensive, racing jurisdictions typically combine samples from a race (separating and retesting if positive), and limit the scope of what's being tested for to reduce expense.

Meaning on any given race day, a trainer could be using something that's rarely tested for, or hasn't gotten on the racing commission's radar yet with little worry.

Now I'm sure that the Kentucky Derby tests all participants and spares little expense.

It very well could be that Baffert's barn uses some topical agent or timetable that has never cause a problem before, but did this time because of more intense scrutiny than he's used to in California.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Gander36

Baffert is inferring he's being sabotaged.

Personally, if I were going to sabotage another guys horse with a drug contamination, I'd use a more egregious drug, use a higher amount sure to be detected, and then do it to one of his EVEN MONEY horses, not a 12-1.
...LOL

Depends on your reason for sabotaging.

If your purpose was to make money, I'd drug the 12-1.